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2008 Climate Action Team Report
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Percent of historical (1961-1990) water year precipitation during
3 climate change periods (2005-2034, 2035,2064, 2070-2099) from
6 coupled models (CNRM CM3, GFDL CM2.1, MIROC3.2 (med),
MPI ECHAM5, NCAR CCSM3, NCAR PCM1) and two climate change
scenarios (SRESA2, SRESB1).
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To meet the state's greenhouse gas reduction targets, Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger directed the Secretary of the California Environmental
Protection Agency (CalEPA) to coordinate with several agencies (forming the
Climate Action Team -- CAT). CAT releases a bi-annual report on the
progress made toward meeting the statewide greenhouse gas targets.
The 2008 Climate Action Team Report work is in progress and a
sneak peak at some preliminary results is offered here.
Please click here for more information.
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Success Stories
The California Applications Program
(CAP) and the California Climate Change Center (CCCC)
aim to develop and provide better climate information and forecasts
for decision makers in California
and the surrounding region. By working directly with users, CAP and CCCC
are working to evaluate climate information needs and utility
from the user perspective.
Objectives
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Evaluate climate forecasts and projections for California
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Improve understanding of mechanisms linking climate and its impacts
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Develop local models and forecasts of water resources and fire risks
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Disseminate climate information, including forecasts and projections,
to California decision makers
Approach
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Work directly with users to develop useful forecast applications
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Downscale climate forecasts and simulations from global to regional
to local scales
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Determine forecast reliability using historical hindcasts
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Provide a variety of forecasts in real time
Lessons Learned
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Interest level of public and private sectors varies; Climatologists must
be ready to strike when iron is hot
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Simple, clear illustrations are needed
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Relationships with end-users need to be cultivated
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Communication enhances credibility
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More focus is needed on non-winter seasons and broader regions
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Collaborations with large institutional programs are key
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Climate data needs to be updated and maintained
Lessons learned from testimony to U.S. House of Representatives; click here
for detailed contribution
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Special CAP/CCCC Topics
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El Niño Watch
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Animation of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies from the
Climate Prediction Center
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The Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch. This
means conditions are favorable for the development of an El Niño
within the next three months. Below is a forecast of tropcial sea surface
temperature anomalies from the SIO Experimental Climate Prediction Center
for December 2009 through February 2010.
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Find out more about these developing conditions and how El Niño
may impact California:
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/elnino_calif.html
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2009 Wildfire Forecast
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September 2009 odds for wildfires greater than 200 ha relative to
September historic means
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Tony Westerling, head of the Climate
Applications Lab at UC Merced, is producing wildfire forecasts for the
upcoming seasons. Their goal is to estimate the probability of large fires
(> 200 ha) for one to six months ahead. Find more information about their
work and the upcoming forecasts at
https://wildfire.ucmerced.edu/forecast
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California drought continues
As Blue Canyon heads into their dry season, precipitation runs
a deficit of 24.4 inches -- 37% below normal.
Most of California is facing the probability that this
will be another dry year. Seven of the last ten years have seen
water year (Oct to Sep) precipitation well below normal.
Click here to learn more about the continuing drought
conditions.
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CAP/CCCC Research
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Attribution of Declining Western U.S. Snowpack to Human Effects
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Observed fraction of snow water equivalent to precipitation
over elevations 965-1280 meters
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A detectable change in snowpack over the western United States
cannot be fully explained by natural internal
climate variability or the effects of solar and volcanic forcing.
This recent study did not depend on geographic grouping
or elevational banding. Approximately half of the observed changes
in snowpack during the 1950-1999 period arose from climate
responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone and aerosols.
Please click above for a personal-use copy of the full article.
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Climate Science and the CALFED Bay-Delta Program
The state of Bay-Delta science, 2008
This comprehensive report provides a basis for understanding many of the
issues troubling the Delta, which is widely recognized as the
weak link in California's water supply system and an ecosystem
in freefall.
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Californa Department of Water Resources Newsletter
last update -- June 2, 2009
MtnClim 2008
Mountain Climate Research Conference
Click above for 2008 Conference Archives
Previous Special Topics
Please click here for previous special topics
Tioga Pass
Please visit
http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/tioga
for the latest image.
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