Publications

• D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, and P. J. Gleckler, 2009:
  Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0900094106
  
  
• T. P. Barnett and D. W. Pierce, 2009:
  Sustainable water deliveries from the Colorado River in a changing climate.
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0812762106
  
  
• T. Das, H. G. Hidalgo, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, D. W. Pierce, C. Bonfils, T. P. Barnett, G. Bala, A. Mirin, 2009:
  Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the western United States.
  J. Hydrometeorology, in press.
  
  
• Hidalgo, H. G., T. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, G. Bala, A. Mirin, A. W. Wood, C. Bonfils, B. D. Santer, T. Nozawa, 2009:
  Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the western United States.
  J. Climate, in press.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., Tim P. Barnett, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Tapash Das, Celine Bonfils, Benjamin D. Santer, Govindasamy Bala, Michael D. Dettinger, Daniel R. Cayan, Art Mirin, Andrew W. Wood, Toru Nozawa, 2008:
  Attribution of Declining Western U.S. Snowpack to Human Effects
  J. Climate, v. 21, p. 6425-6444.
  
  
• Bonfils, C., Benjamin D. Santer, David W. Pierce, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Govindasamy Bala, Tapash Das, Tim P. Barnett, Daniel R. Cayan, Charles Doutriaux, Andrew W. Wood, Art Mirin, Toru Nozawa, 2008:
  Detection and Attribution of Temperature Changes in the Mountainous Western United States
  J. Climate, v. 21, p. 6404-6424.
  
  
• Barnett, T. P. and Pierce, D. W., 2008:
  When will Lake Mead run dry?
  J. Water Resources Research, v. 44, W03201, doi:10.1029/2007WR006704.
  
  
• Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Hidalgo, H. H., Bonfils, C., Santer, B. D., Das, T., Bala, G., Wood, A. W., Nozawa, T., Mirin, A. A., Cayan, D. R., and Dettinger, M. D., 2008:
  Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States
  Science, published online 31 Jan 2008, doi:10.1126/science.1152538.
  
  
• Santer, B. D, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, M. F. Wehner, 2007:
  Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content.
  Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., v. 104, p. 15248-15253.
  
  
• AchutaRao, K. M., M. Ishii, B. D. Santer, P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, R. J. Stouffer, and T. M. L. Wigley, 2007:
  Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content.
  Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., v. 104, p. 10768-10773.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, E. J. Fetzer, and P. J. Gleckler, 2006:
  Three-dimensional tropospheric water vapor in coupled climate models compared with observations from the AIRS satellite system.
  Geophys. Res. Let., v. 33, L21701, doi:10.1029/2006GL027060.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., AchutaRao, K., Gleckler, P., Gregory, J., and Washington, W., 2006:
  Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: Observations and model results
  J. Climate, v. 19, p. 1873-1900.
  
  
• AchutaRao, K. M., Gleckler, P. J., Santer, B. D., Taylor, K. E., Pierce, D. W., and Barnett, T. P., 2006:
  Variability of Ocean Heat Uptake: Reconciling Observations and Models.
  JGR Oceans, v. 111, C05019, doi 10.1029/2005JC003136.
  
  
• Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., AchutaRao, K., Gleckler, P., Santer, B., Gregory, J., and Washington, W., 2005:
  Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World's Oceans
  Science, Published online 2 June 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1112418
  
  
• Alfaro, E. J., Pierce, D. W., Steinemann, A. C., and Gershunov, A., 2005:
  Relationships Between the Irrigation Pumping Electrical Loads and the Local Climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho
  J. Appl. Meteorol. , v. 44, p. 1972-1978.
  
  
• Voisin, N., Hamlet, A. F., Graham, L. P., Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., and Lettenmaier, D. P., 2005:
  The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning
  J. Appl. Meteorol. , v. 45, p. 653-673.
  
  
• Davis, T. D., Gaushell, D., Pierce, D. W., and Altalo, M. G., 2005:
  Guessing mother nature's next move: What can be done to improve weather prediction and load forecasts?
  Public Utilities Fortnightly , August 2005, p. 48-54.
  
  
• Alfaro, E., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D., Steinemann, A., Pierce, D., and Barnett, T. P., 2004:
  A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperature
  EOS , v. 85, p. 553-557.
  PDF, 7.2 MB.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., 2004:
  Beyond the means: Validating climate models with higher-order statistics
  Computing in Science and Engineering , v. 6 (Sept/Oct), p. 22-29.
  PDF, 0.5 MB.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., 2004:
  Future changes in biological activity in the North Pacific due to anthropogenic forcing of the physical environment
  Climatic Change , v. 62 p. 389-418.
  PDF, 0.5 MB.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Tokmakian, R., Semtner, A., Maltrud, M. Lysne, J., and Craig, A., 2004:
  The ACPI project, Element 1: Initializing a coupled climate model from observed conditions
  Climatic Change , v. 62 p. 13-28.
  
  
• Zhu, C., Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Wood, A. W., and Lettenmaier, D. P., 2004:
  Evaluation of hydrologically relevant PCM climate variables and large-scale variability over the continental U.S.
  Climatic Change , v. 62 p. 45-74.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., 2002:
  The role of sea surface temperatures in interactions between ENSO and the North Pacific Oscillation
  J. Climate , v. 15, 1295-1308.
  PDF, 0.5 MB.
  
  
• Schneider, N., Miller, A. J., and Pierce, D. W., 2002:
  Anatomy of North Pacific decadal variability
  J. Climate , v. 15, p. 586-605
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., 2001:
  Distinguishing Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions from Background Noise in the North Pacific
  Prog. Oceanogr. , v. 49, p. 331-352.
  PDF, 0.5 MB.
  
  
• Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., and Schnur, R., 2001:
  Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans
  Science , v. 292, p. 270-274.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Schneider, N., Saravanan, R., Dommenget, D., and Latif, M., 2001:
  The role of ocean dynamics in producing decadal climate variability in the North Pacific
  Climate Dynamics , v. 18, p. 51-70.
  
  
• Yulaeva, E., Schneider, N., Pierce, D. W., and Barnett, T. P., 2001:
  Modeling of North Pacific climate variability forced by oceanic heat fluxes anomalies
  J. Climate , v. 14, p. 4027-4046
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., and Latif, M., 2000:
  Connections between the Pacific Ocean tropics and midlatitudes on decadal time scales
  J. Climate , v. 13, p. 1173-1194
  
  
• Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Saravanan, R., Schneider, N., Dommenget, D., and Latif, M., 1999:
  Origins of the midlatitude Pacific decadal variability
  Geophys. Rev. Lett. , v. 26, p. 1453-1456.
  
  
• Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Latif, M., Dommenget, D., and Saravanan, R., 1999:
  Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin
  Geophys. Rev. Lett. , v. 26, p. 615-618.
  
  
• Schneider, N., Venzke, S., Miller, A. J., Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Deser, C., and Latif, M., 1999:
  Pacific thermocline bridge revisited
  Geophys. Res. Lett. , v. 26, p. 1329-1332
  
  
• Marotzke, J., and Pierce, D. W., 1997:
  On spatial scales and lifetimes of SST anomalies beneath a diffusive atmosphere
  J. Phys. Oceanogr. v. 27, p. 133-139
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., and Rhines, P. B., 1997:
  Convective Building of a Pycnocline: A Two-Dimensional, Non-Hydrostatic Numerical Model
  J. Phys. Oceanogr. v. 27, p. 909-925
  Format: Postscript, 5.4 MB.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., 1996:
  "The Hybrid Coupled Model, Version 3: Technical Notes"
  Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Series No. 96-27. August, 1996.
  Format: PDF, 2 MB.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., 1996:
  Reducing Phase and Amplitude Errors in Restoring Boundary Conditions
  J. Phys. Oceanogr. , v. 26, p. 1552-1560.
  Format: PDF, 0.5 MB.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., and Rhines, P. B., 1996:
  Convective Building of a Pycnocline: Laboratory Experiments
  J. Phys. Oceanogr. v. 26, p. 176-190
  Format: Postscript, 1.7 MB. A streak photograph (GIF, 171K) of the experiment in action.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., Kim, K-Y, and Barnett, T. P., 1996:
  Variability of the Thermohaline Circulation in an Ocean General Circulation Model Coupled to an Atmospheric Energy Balance Model
  J. Phys. Oceanogr. v. 26, p. 725-738.
  Format: Postscript, 1.5 MB.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., and Mikolajewicz, U., 1995:
  Competing Roles of Heat and Fresh Water Fluxes in Forcing Thermohaline Oscillations,
  J. Phys. Oceanogr. , v. 25, p. 2046-2064.
  Format: Postscript, 2.4 MB.
  
  
• Pierce, D. W., and Stephens, B. K., 1995:
  Visualizing Geophysical Data: Teasing Meaning from Models
  IEEE Computational Science & Engineering December, 1995
  Format: HTML. This is a short, general article which should be understandable to a broad range of readers.