Papers

Publications


  1. Pierce, D. W. and D. R. Cayan, 2015:
    Downscaling humidity with Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) over the conterminous United States.
    Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2845-1.

  2. Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, E. P. Maurer, J. T. Abatzoglou, and K. C. Hegewisch, 2015:
    Improved bias correction techniquesx for hydrological simulations of climate change.
    J. Hydrometeorology, v. 16, p. 2421-2442. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0236.1

  3. Livneh, B., T. J. Bohn, D. W. Pierce, F. Munoz-Arriola, B. Nijssen, R. Vose, D. R. Cayan, and L. Brekke, 2015:
    A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950-2013.
    Scientific Data, v. 2, article 150042 (2015). doi:10.1038/sdata.2015.42.

  4. Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, and B. L. Thrasher, 2014:
    Statistical downscaling using localized constructed analogs (LOCA).
    J. Hydrometeorology, v. 15, p. 2558, doi:10.1175/JFM-D-14-0082.1
    Note: For more information on LOCA, see loca.ucsd.edu

  5. Pierce, D. W., and D. R. Cayan, 2014:
    Low stratus as a driver of electrical demand variability indepenent of tempeature in the greater Los Angeles region.
    California Energy Commission Technical Report, submitted.

  6. Polade, S. D., D. W. Pierce, D. R. Cayan, A. Gershunov, and M. D. Dettinger, 2014:
    The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes.
    Scientific Reports, v. 4, doi:10.1038/srep04364.

  7. Maurer, E. P., and D. W. Pierce, 2014:
    Bias correction can modify climate model-simulated precipitation changes without adverse affect on the ensemble mean.
    Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., v. 18, 915-925.

  8. Das, T., E. P. Maurer, D. W. Pierce, M. D. Dettinger, and D. R. Cayan, 2013:
    Increases in Flood Magnitudes in California Under Warming Climates.
    J. Hydrology, v. 501, 101-110.

  9. Burns, J. C., L. Herzog, O. Fabri, A. H. Tremoulet, X. Rodo, R. Uehara, D. Burgner, E. Bainto, D. Pierce, M. Tyree, D. Cayan, for the Kawasaki Disease Global Climate Consortium, 2013:
    Seasonality of Kawasaki disease: A global perspective.
    PLoS One, 8, e74529, doi:10.137/journal.pone.0074529.

  10. Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, T. Das, E. P. Maurer, N. L. Miller, Y. Bao, M. Kanamitsu, K. Yoshimura, M. A. Snyder, L. C. Sloan, G. Franco, and M. Tyree, 2013:
    The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California.
    J. Climate,, v. 26, 5879-5896.

  11. Pierce, D. W., A. L. Westerling, and J. Oyler, 2013:
    Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system.
    Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.., v. 17, 1833-50.

  12. Polade, Suraj D., A. Gershunov, D. R. Cayan, M. D. Dettinger, and D. W. Pierce, 2013:
    Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.
    Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/grl.50491.

  13. Pierce, D. W., T. Das, D. R. Cayan, E. P. Maurer, N. L. Miller, Y. Bao, M. Kanamitsu, K. Yoshimura, M. A. Snyder, L. C. Sloan, G. Franco, M. Tyree, 2013:
    Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling.
    Climate Dynamics, v. 40, 839-856. doi 10.1007/s00382-012-1337-9.

  14. Pierce, D. W., and D. R. Cayan, 2012:
    The uneven response of different snow measures to human-induced climate warming.
    J. Climate, v. 26, 4148-67.

  15. DeFlorio, M. J., D. W. Pierce, D. R. Cayan, and A. J. Miller, 2012:
    Western U.S. Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Relation to ENSO and PDO in CCSM4.
    J. Climate, v. 26, 4231-43.

  16. Pierce, D. W., P. J. Gleckler, T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, and P. J. Durack, 2012:
    The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the ocean's salinity and temperature fields.
    Geophys. Res. Lett., v. 39, L21704, doi:10.1029/2012GL053389.

  17. Gleckler, P. J., B. D. Santer, C. M. Domingues, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, J. A. Church, K. E. Taylor, K. M. AchutaRao, T. P. Boyer, M. Ishii, and P. M. Caldwell, 2012:
    Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales.
    Nature Climate Change, v. 2, 524-529, doi:10.1038/nclimate1553.

  18. Pierce, D. W., Ed., 2012:
    California Climate Extremes Workshop Report.
    Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA. 32 pp.

  19. Das, T., D. W. Pierce, D. R. Cayan, J. A. Vano, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2011:
    The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes.
    Geophysical Research Letters, v. 38, L23403, doi:10.1029/2011GL049660.

  20. Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, and P. J. Gleckler, 2011:
    Ocean Circulations, Heat Budgets, and Future Committment to Climate Change.
    Annual Reviews of Environment and Resources, v. 36, doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-022610-112928.

  21. Cayan, D.R., T. Das, D.W. Pierce, T.P. Barnett, M. Tyree and A. Gershunov, 2010:
    Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought.
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 107(50), 21271-21276.

  22. Santer, B. D., K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, T. M. L. Wigley, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, W. Brggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, and M. F. Wehner, 2009:
    Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies.
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0901736106

  23. Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, and P. J. Gleckler, 2009:
    Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0900094106

  24. Barnett, T. P., and D. W. Pierce, 2009:
    Reply to comment by J. J. Barsugli et al. on When will Lake Mead go dry?
    Water Resources Research, v. 45, W09602, doi:10.1029/2009WR008219

  25. Barnett, T. P., and D. W. Pierce, 2009:
    Sustainable water deliveries from the Colorado River in a changing climate.
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0812762106

  26. Das, T., H. G. Hidalgo, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, D. W. Pierce, C. Bonfils, T. P. Barnett, G. Bala, A. Mirin, 2009:
    Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the western United States.
    J. Hydrometeorology, v. 10, p. 871-892.

  27. Hidalgo, H. G., T. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, G. Bala, A. Mirin, A. W. Wood, C. Bonfils, B. D. Santer, T. Nozawa, 2009:
    Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the western United States.
    J. Climate, v. 22, p. 3838-3855.

  28. Pierce, D. W., Tim P. Barnett, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Tapash Das, Celine Bonfils, Benjamin D. Santer, Govindasamy Bala, Michael D. Dettinger, Daniel R. Cayan, Art Mirin, Andrew W. Wood, Toru Nozawa, 2008:
    Attribution of Declining Western U.S. Snowpack to Human Effects
    J. Climate, v. 21, p. 6425-6444.

  29. Bonfils, C., Benjamin D. Santer, David W. Pierce, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Govindasamy Bala, Tapash Das, Tim P. Barnett, Daniel R. Cayan, Charles Doutriaux, Andrew W. Wood, Art Mirin, Toru Nozawa, 2008:
    Detection and Attribution of Temperature Changes in the Mountainous Western United States
    J. Climate, v. 21, p. 6404-6424.

  30. Barnett, T. P. and Pierce, D. W., 2008:
    When will Lake Mead run dry?
    J. Water Resources Research, v. 44, W03201, doi:10.1029/2007WR006704.

  31. Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Hidalgo, H. H., Bonfils, C., Santer, B. D., Das, T., Bala, G., Wood, A. W., Nozawa, T., Mirin, A. A., Cayan, D. R., and Dettinger, M. D., 2008:
    Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States
    Science, published online 31 Jan 2008, doi:10.1126/science.1152538.
    Supplementary Online Material

  32. Santer, B. D, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, M. F. Wehner, 2007:
    Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content.
    Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., v. 104, p. 15248-15253.

  33. AchutaRao, K. M., M. Ishii, B. D. Santer, P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, R. J. Stouffer, and T. M. L. Wigley, 2007:
    Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content.
    Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., v. 104, p. 10768-10773.

  34. Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, E. J. Fetzer, and P. J. Gleckler, 2006:
    Three-dimensional tropospheric water vapor in coupled climate models compared with observations from the AIRS satellite system.
    Geophys. Res. Let., v. 33, L21701, doi:10.1029/2006GL027060.

  35. Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., AchutaRao, K., Gleckler, P., Gregory, J., and Washington, W., 2006:
    Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: Observations and model results
    J. Climate, v. 19, p. 1873-1900.

  36. AchutaRao, K. M., Gleckler, P. J., Santer, B. D., Taylor, K. E., Pierce, D. W., and Barnett, T. P., 2006:
    Variability of Ocean Heat Uptake: Reconciling Observations and Models.
    JGR Oceans, v. 111, C05019, doi 10.1029/2005JC003136.

  37. Miller, A. J., A. J. Gabric, J. R. Moisan, F. Chai, D. J. Neilsno, D. W. Pierce, and E. Di Lorenzo, 2006:
    Global change and ocean primary productivity: Effects of Ocean-Atmosphere-Biological feedbacks.
    In Global cliamte change and response of carbon cycle in the Equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and adjacent landmasses
    H. Kawahata and Y. Awaya eds.
    Elsevier oceanography series 73.

  38. Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., AchutaRao, K., Gleckler, P., Santer, B., Gregory, J., and Washington, W., 2005:
    Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World's Oceans
    Science, Published online 2 June 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1112418

  39. Alfaro, E. J., Pierce, D. W., Steinemann, A. C., and Gershunov, A., 2005:
    Relationships Between the Irrigation Pumping Electrical Loads and the Local Climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho
    J. Appl. Meteorol. , v. 44, p. 1972-1978.

  40. Voisin, N., Hamlet, A. F., Graham, L. P., Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., and Lettenmaier, D. P., 2005:
    The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning
    J. Appl. Meteorol. , v. 45, p. 653-673.

  41. Davis, T. D., Gaushell, D., Pierce, D. W., and Altalo, M. G., 2005:
    Guessing mother nature's next move: What can be done to improve weather prediction and load forecasts?
    Public Utilities Fortnightly , August 2005, p. 48-54.

  42. Alfaro, E., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D., Steinemann, A., Pierce, D., and Barnett, T. P., 2004:
    A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperature
    EOS , v. 85, p. 553-557.
    PDF, 7.2 MB.

  43. Pierce, D. W., 2004:
    Beyond the means: Validating climate models with higher-order statistics
    Computing in Science and Engineering , v. 6 (Sept/Oct), p. 22-29.
    PDF, 0.5 MB.

  44. Pierce, D. W., 2004:
    Future changes in biological activity in the North Pacific due to anthropogenic forcing of the physical environment
    Climatic Change , v. 62 p. 389-418.
    PDF, 0.5 MB.

  45. Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Tokmakian, R., Semtner, A., Maltrud, M. Lysne, J., and Craig, A., 2004:
    The ACPI project, Element 1: Initializing a coupled climate model from observed conditions
    Climatic Change , v. 62 p. 13-28.

  46. Zhu, C., Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Wood, A. W., and Lettenmaier, D. P., 2004:
    Evaluation of hydrologically relevant PCM climate variables and large-scale variability over the continental U.S.
    Climatic Change , v. 62 p. 45-74.

  47. Pierce, D. W., 2004:
    Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ENSO on seasonally averaged temperatures in California.
    Report 3 of the California Climate Change Center/California Applications Program, February, 2004.

  48. Pierce, D. W., 2002:
    The role of sea surface temperatures in interactions between ENSO and the North Pacific Oscillation
    J. Climate , v. 15, 1295-1308.
    PDF, 0.5 MB.

  49. Schneider, N., Miller, A. J., and Pierce, D. W., 2002:
    Anatomy of North Pacific decadal variability
    J. Climate , v. 15, p. 586-605

  50. Pierce, D. W., 2001:
    Distinguishing Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions from Background Noise in the North Pacific
    Prog. Oceanogr. , v. 49, p. 331-352.
    PDF, 0.5 MB.

  51. Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., and Schnur, R., 2001:
    Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans
    Science , v. 292, p. 270-274.

  52. Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Schneider, N., Saravanan, R., Dommenget, D., and Latif, M., 2001:
    The role of ocean dynamics in producing decadal climate variability in the North Pacific
    Climate Dynamics , v. 18, p. 51-70.

  53. Yulaeva, E., Schneider, N., Pierce, D. W., and Barnett, T. P., 2001:
    Modeling of North Pacific climate variability forced by oceanic heat fluxes anomalies
    J. Climate , v. 14, p. 4027-4046

  54. Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., and Latif, M., 2000:
    Connections between the Pacific Ocean tropics and midlatitudes on decadal time scales
    J. Climate , v. 13, p. 1173-1194

  55. Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Saravanan, R., Schneider, N., Dommenget, D., and Latif, M., 1999:
    Origins of the midlatitude Pacific decadal variability
    Geophys. Res. Lett. , v. 26, p. 1453-1456.

  56. Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Latif, M., Dommenget, D., and Saravanan, R., 1999:
    Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin
    Geophys. Res. Lett. , v. 26, p. 615-618.

  57. Schneider, N., Venzke, S., Miller, A. J., Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Deser, C., and Latif, M., 1999:
    Pacific thermocline bridge revisited
    Geophys. Res. Lett. , v. 26, p. 1329-1332

  58. Marotzke, J., and Pierce, D. W., 1997:
    On spatial scales and lifetimes of SST anomalies beneath a diffusive atmosphere
    J. Phys. Oceanogr. v. 27, p. 133-139

  59. Pierce, D. W., and Rhines, P. B., 1997:
    Convective Building of a Pycnocline: A Two-Dimensional, Non-Hydrostatic Numerical Model
    J. Phys. Oceanogr. v. 27, p. 909-925
    Format: Postscript, 5.4 MB.

  60. Pierce, D. W., 1996:
    "The Hybrid Coupled Model, Version 3: Technical Notes"
    Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Series No. 96-27. August, 1996.
    Format: PDF, 2 MB.

  61. Pierce, D. W., 1996:
    Reducing Phase and Amplitude Errors in Restoring Boundary Conditions
    J. Phys. Oceanogr. , v. 26, p. 1552-1560.
    Format: PDF, 0.5 MB.

  62. Pierce, D. W., and Rhines, P. B., 1996:
    Convective Building of a Pycnocline: Laboratory Experiments
    J. Phys. Oceanogr. v. 26, p. 176-190
    Format: Postscript, 1.7 MB. A streak photograph (GIF, 171K) of the experiment in action.

  63. Pierce, D. W., Kim, K-Y, and Barnett, T. P., 1996:
    Variability of the Thermohaline Circulation in an Ocean General Circulation Model Coupled to an Atmospheric Energy Balance Model
    J. Phys. Oceanogr. v. 26, p. 725-738.
    Format: Postscript, 1.5 MB.

  64. Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., and Mikolajewicz, U., 1995:
    Competing Roles of Heat and Fresh Water Fluxes in Forcing Thermohaline Oscillations,
    J. Phys. Oceanogr. , v. 25, p. 2046-2064.

  65. Pierce, D. W., and Stephens, B. K., 1995:
    Visualizing Geophysical Data: Teasing Meaning from Models
    IEEE Computational Science & Engineering December, 1995
    Format: HTML. This is a short, general article which should be understandable to a broad range of readers.

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Last modified 25 February, 2014