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2008 Climate Action Team Report
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Percent of historical (1961-1990) water year precipitation during
3 climate change periods (2005-2034, 2035,2064, 2070-2099) from
6 coupled models (CNRM CM3, GFDL CM2.1, MIROC3.2 (med),
MPI ECHAM5, NCAR CCSM3, NCAR PCM1) and two climate change
scenarios (SRESA2, SRESB1).
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To meet the state's greenhouse gas reduction targets, Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger directed the Secretary of the California Environmental
Protection Agency (CalEPA) to coordinate with several agencies (forming the
Climate Action Team -- CAT). CAT releases a bi-annual report on the
progress made toward meeting the statewide greenhouse gas targets.
The 2008 Climate Action Team Report work is in progress and a
sneak peak at some preliminary results is offered here.
Please click here for more information.
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Success Stories
The California Applications Program
(CAP) and the California Climate Change Center (CCCC)
aim to develop and provide better climate information and forecasts
for decision makers in California
and the surrounding region. By working directly with users, CAP and CCCC
are working to evaluate climate information needs and utility
from the user perspective.
Objectives
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Evaluate climate forecasts and projections for California
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Improve understanding of mechanisms linking climate and its impacts
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Develop local models and forecasts of water resources and fire risks
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Disseminate climate information, including forecasts and projections,
to California decision makers
Approach
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Work directly with users to develop useful forecast applications
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Downscale climate forecasts and simulations from global to regional
to local scales
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Determine forecast reliability using historical hindcasts
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Provide a variety of forecasts in real time
Lessons Learned
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Interest level of public and private sectors varies; Climatologists must
be ready to strike when iron is hot
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Simple, clear illustrations are needed
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Relationships with end-users need to be cultivated
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Communication enhances credibility
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More focus is needed on non-winter seasons and broader regions
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Collaborations with large institutional programs are key
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Climate data needs to be updated and maintained
Lessons learned from testimony to U.S. House of Representatives; click here
for detailed contribution
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Special CAP/CCCC Topics
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El Niño Advisory
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Animation of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies from the
Climate Prediction Center
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On February 4, 2010, the Climate Prediction Center updated the El Niño
Advisory. El Niño conditions continued during January 2010 but weakened
considerably by the end of the month. Nearly all models predict decreasing
SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region through 2010. However El Niño
impacts are expected to last into Northern Hemisphere spring.
Below is a forecast of tropcial sea surface
temperature anomalies from the SIO Experimental Climate Prediction Center
for March through May 2010.
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Find out more about these developing conditions and how El Niño
may impact California:
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/elnino_calif.html
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GPS Precipitable Water - New Product
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Atmospheric column precipitable water images (click above) are updated
every hour (depending on data availability) using the California
Realtime Network of GPS data. This new product, developed by
Jim Means, gives an excellent view of the amount of moisture in
the southwestern California region.
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UCSD student volunteers pack gravel into molds to create pavers that will be
used on the main roads of Los Laureles Canyon.
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UCSD TV: Los Laureles Canyon: Research in Action
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CAP/CCCC researchers Sasha Gershunov, Dan Cayan and Mike Dettinger
contribute to this revealing program about the search for
sustainable solutions in the Los Laureles Canyon, home to
65,000 people and a link to the sensitive wetlands of the
Tijuana Estuary.
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Wreckage from 1978 flood.
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Several CAP/CCCC researchers are working with the U.S. Geological
Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
to examine a cataclysmic flood scenario for California. ARk Storm
is designed to rival the California Great Flood of 1861-1862. This scenario,
expected to be run in April 2011, will examine the flood disaster
preparedness of the state.
Click here to learn more about ARkStorm.
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2009 Wildfire Forecast
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September 2009 odds for wildfires greater than 200 ha relative to
September historic means
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Tony Westerling, head of the Climate
Applications Lab at UC Merced, is producing wildfire forecasts for the
upcoming seasons. Their goal is to estimate the probability of large fires
(> 200 ha) for one to six months ahead. Find more information about their
work and the upcoming forecasts at
https://wildfire.ucmerced.edu/forecast
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CAP/CCCC Research
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Heat Waves over California and Nevada: Signal of an
Increasing Trend
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The image above shows the June-August anomalous increase in precipitable water
during nighttime heatwaves. The dark area indicates an increase of more than
15 kg/m2.
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CAP/CCCC researchers Alexander Gershunov, Daniel Cayan and
Sam Iacobellis examined the 2006 heat wave in the context of
six decades of observed heat waves. Looking at the warmest one percent
of historical summer day and night temperatures, heatwaves often fall into
one of two types: daytime dry or nighttime muggy. Since the 1990s, the
nighttime heatwaves have become more common. Their results suggest regional extremes
are becoming more likely as climate change trends continue.
Please click here for a preliminary release of the report
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Californa Department of Water Resources Newsletter
last update -- October 13, 2009
MtnClim 2010 -- 7-10 June in Blue River, Oregon
Mountain Climate Research Conference
Click above for 2010 Conference information
Previous Special Topics
Please click here for previous special topics
Tioga Pass
Please visit
http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/tioga
for the latest image.
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