Contributed to testimony for the U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Science, Subcommittee on Environment, Technology and Standards, April 17, 2002
Interest level of public and private sectors varies; Climatologists must be ready to strike when iron is hot
The interest level of state officials in California in topics relating to climate change has increased markedly over the last year. Concerning seasonal forecasts, stakeholders "care" about forecasts quite intensely in some years when it is perceived that climate anomalies would produce a large effect (e.g., after two years of drought). However, in other years when conditions are thought to be more "normal", there is not as much interest.
The process of assessing and integrating climate services and forecasts into local resource management procedures and agencies requires much luck and patience. Agencies, especially local agencies, are buffeted by many stresses each year and often place climate issues low among their priorities. When climate rises towards the top of their priorities, however they are eager for help, advice, and hard facts; during these intervals, much progress can be made in establishing connections and in developing long-term users of climate services. The time table for such advances, however, is most often set by the user, and not the purveyor, of climate services.
Simple, clear illustrations are needed
Simple, clear illustrations of model results that translate atmospheric changes into regional hydrologic changes have been important "props" that have been key elements in conveying to state agencies and the public some likely impacts of climate change in the region. The estimated loss of spring snowpack has been singularly important in this regard. Also, the observed trend over recent decades toward earlier Sierra runoff and the diminishing percentage in late spring, whether caused by global human activity or not, have at the very least given to water managers a tangible face to what is often considered a hypothetical possibility. Several sectors have expressed interest from the State Resources Agency (water, forests, wildlife), Environmental Protection (water and air quality), Energy Commission as well as legislators who are interested in impacts in their own districts. Since we are a coastal state, the potential for accelerated sea level rise is an important issue. Having a credible climate simulation model(s) at our disposal 1) to make such estimates and, perhaps as important, 2) present the results using formats and techniques more readily understood by practitioners, has been invaluable in supplying information.
We found that temperature indicators other than thermometer readings are quite effective in translating the meaning of climate change to the public or to decision makers. Phenological stages (e.g., first bloom of lilacs) and spring snowmelt runoff timing have furnished important, entirely independent and mutually corroborative evidence that spring has been arriving earlier across the West for the past three decades.
Relationships with end-users need to be cultivated
In some sectors like water resource management, in order to convince operational institutions that there is value to be gained from only modestly skillful climate forecasts, it is crucial to work closely with agencies over an extended period. It may be necessary to run their operational models side-by-side with alternative new models to demonstrate utility. It is not enough to simply provide forecasts of precipitation or streamflow; the user needs to be involved and engaged interactively throughout the various steps from climate model output to his particular application/decision.
Communication enhances credibility
ENSO has become accepted as a major driver of Western weather and climate patterns. However, the "flavors" of different ENSO events and the uncertainty associated with ENSO forecasts is still not well understood and needs to be clarified. We have spent (and will continue to spend) considerable time in explaining this to media, the general public and agencies.
We have a much improved understanding of wildland fire management decision-making and a much improved understanding of wildland fire mangement information needs. Climate information, though used in some strategic planning, is still not fully utilized in wildland fire management practices; especially time scales of decadal and longer. When climate forecasts are utililzed in some management applications, however, forecast skill causes many managers to be skeptical of prediction usefulness. We are convinced, though, that there are a range of forecast products beyond the short range time scales that can be of benefit to fire management. For example, statistical seasonal fire forecasts can be made with modest skill using prior years' moisture indices. The fire community has been somewhat skeptical of the value of this tool but is beginning to pay more attention. The Climate-Fire Workshops held by the UAZ RISA have been instrumental in promoting dialogue with the fire community. Allied with this issue, it is clear that a better organized central fire data facility would be invaluable to understand and predict climate links to anomalous fire activity across the West.
More focus is needed on non-winter seasons and broader regions
Much of our seasonal forecast attention has been placed on winter season issues (precipitation, temperature), and we have often confined our attention to regions the scale of large watersheds (Sacramento/San Joaquin). But, climate anomalies are not confined to one season, and the footprint of climate anomalies is often super-regional in scale. For example, California draws water and power from the Colorado River system as well as from Northern California watersheds. Also, summer climate anomalies impact summer electrical air conditioning demand, and their cross-regional interconnections have not received much attention. CAP, UW, and NOAA CDC have begun to discuss this issue and how this should be dealt with in a whole-West perspective.
Collaborations with large institutional programs are key
California has begun the largest restoration program in the world, CALFED. This $30 billion 30-year effort is an attempt to involve a broad range of stakeholders in a comprehensive plan to restore the Sacramento / San Joaquin delta and San Francisco Bay and improve water quality and ecosystem function. Climatic processes are the most important external driver of these hydrologic systems, and climatic variability can be expected to cause myriad consequences. CAP has been quite influential in raising the climate connection to a significant level of visibility within the CALFED program. We have used a unique biological indicatorn of winter precipitation, blue oaks, to discover that wet and dry episodes of 6 to 8-year and approximately 15-year duration are a significant feature in the Central Valley climate of the past 400 years. These heretofore largely unrecognized shorter periods are familiar to those who have recently lived through the late 1980s/ early 1990s drought, and the subsequent very wet six years of the mid 1990s. CAP and collaborators have been commissioned by CALFED to summarize the role of climate variability and change in CALFED issues and to propose areas that need dealing with by CALFED science activities. We have also provided input to the current update of the California Water Plan to guide and coordinate beneficial use of California's water resources. Gaining the notice and trust of key individuals has enormous importance in our ability to inject scientific information into institutional decision making processes.
Climate data needs to be updated and maintained
Climate data archives are struggling to keep up with volumes of data that are collected by an assortment of observational networks. There is a new generation of remote sensing and numerical model data that needs to be properly archived and made accessible.
Better monitoring is critical to present and future needs
On the other hand, crucial parts of the western climate (broadly interpreted from atmosphere, ocean, hydrology and ecology) are very poorly monitored. For example, we know that spring snowmelt runoff is occuring earlier in recent decades but don't have the fundamental information to elucidate how this is occuring in mountain snow zone. Often there is little support for these measuring and monitoring activities even though these are resources that are critical for making decisions of ours and of future generations. During a series of visits to the major California agencies affected by climate, it became clear that the state, with the 7th largest economy in the world, has poor access to its own climatic history, and in particular to carefully de-biased diagnostic measures of recent climatic trends in temperature and precipitation, and how these vary on a seasonal basis and geographic basis within this extremely diverse state. We have taken preliminary first steps to develop a suite of such indicators in a new effort coordinated by the California Environmental Protection Agency. Also, together with Henry Diaz (DCD and Western Water Program in Boulder) and others, we have crafted a plan to organize a high elevation monitoring and research across the West (named "CIRCMONT") and have arranged for the inaugural meeting of key investigators and agency officials this fall. In California, we have also use seed funds from CAP funds to build up a high elevation climate monitoring network for the Sierra Nevada, along its 400 mile length, and several cross-range transects at different latitudes. Such information is crucial to the state for present and future decision making.
Global and regional models are crucial tools
Global model runs for both long (seasonal-decadal) and short (1-4 week) forecasts are needed to investigate predictabilty and process-related questions relating to climate impacts. CAP is working with J. Whittaker at CDC to run and assemble a historical medium range forecast dataset and has achieved approximately 10 years of 10+ member ensemble forecasts for 1-15d time leads, but this requires alot of computer resources, considerable data management and progress is incremental.
Regional numerical models are still in a state of development, but are beginning to provide information at the regional and local scales. work is needed to produce simulations and interpolations at the local and regional scale fidelity necessary for managers and policy makers.
Crossing disciplines between climate science and human dimensions requires meaningful collaborations
One of our greatest challenges is to forge links between climate science and social science, policy and health science communities.
Human Health data is available for analysis r.e. climate effects, but in many cases is short duration, parochial, embargoed because of confidentiality issues, and difficult to acquire. It is almost essential to work with experts in the medical or epidemiological area to provide meaningful advice and collaboration in this area.