Why Wildfire? Wildfire supression and management are expensive; over $1,000,000,000 is spent every year on suppression. Often influenced by local to regional climate, wildfire forecasts are plausible and of great economic benefit. (Read more....)
Links Westerling's Public Fire Data Directory Forecast Wildfire climatology Wildfire and ENSO Current conditions Glossary Other Fire Links CEFA Tony Westerling	July 2006 Forecast Updated: 6 July 2006 Forecasted probabilities of large fire events are shown above in an experimental forecast for the 2006 fire season. July 2006 fire forecasts (sample shown above) indicate low probability of large fire events for northern regions of the western United States (green regions). Probabilities for large fire events are moderate to high for regions of the southwest, especially over Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and northwest Texas (yellow to pink regions). Click here for more information	Climate and wildfire in the Western United States (from BAMS May 2003) Recent investigations have found strong associations between the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) two years earlier and fire season severity. Positive correlations are concentrated in southeastern Arizona and southern and eastern New Mexico, as shown above in the correlation between normalized log10 acres burned and August PDSI 2 years prior to the fire season. White dots indicate correlations which exceed the 95% confidence limits. Click here for full article

1868 Dutch Flat	Wildfire and Land Use The way land is managed has a significant impact on wildfire supression and costs. The photos to the left show Dutch Flat in 1868 and 1993. The photos to the right show the American River in 1867 and 1993. Theses photos illustrate the change in forestation due to man's influence on land use. Dutch Flat in 1868 was a new mining town where the local timber was a resource and previous wildfires were not supressed. Now it is a small community where trees are ambiance and supression of fire is necessary. The American River area remains uninhabited today as it did over 100 years ago. However, widlfires are not supressed and vegetation thrives. These photos are from "Fire in Sierra Nevada Forests", by George Greull (Mountain Press Publishing Company, Inc., Missoula, MT, 2001).	1867 American River
1993 Dutch Flat		1993 American River

Last update: 19 May 2006

This CAP project is led by Dr. Tim Brown and Dr. Anthony Westerling. Dr. Brown works at the Desert Research Institute (DRI) and is manager of the Program for Climate, Ecosystem and Fire Applications (CEFA). Dr. Westerling works in the Climate Research Division at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.