073 FXUS06 KWBC 062006 PMDMRD PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD 300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 06 2009 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 16 2009 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY MEAN 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD. RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, THE ECMWF, AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ALL PREDICT A FAST NORTH PACIFIC JET OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA, A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO, AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. IN COMPARISON, YESTERDAY'S 12Z AND TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EAST AND TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HIGH-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS PREDICT A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TO THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A VERY FAST NORTH PACIFIC JET EXTENDING INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN LEADS TO AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND FOR PARTS OF THE US WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE FORECASTED RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET, AND FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL OF THE DAY: YESTERDAY'S 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS, AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 20 2009 YESTERDAY'S 12Z AND TODAY'S 00Z CANADIAN AND TODAY'S 00Z AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 8-14 DAY MEAN 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND EXTENDING IT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST OVER THE CONUS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS A PROGRESSION OF A TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, RESULTING IN LOWERING OF 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US AND RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST RELATIVE TO THE PREDICTED FLOW PATTERN FOR 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODEL PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE BLENDED FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN US, EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER A DEEP TROUGH. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN THE US SOUTHWEST AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ALEUTIANS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC JET. THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND PACIFIC COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, WITH FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AND SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 19 NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19521031 - 19531101 - 19991105 - 19501023 - 20011028 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19521031 - 19531101 - 20011029 - 19991104 - 19901026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 16 2009 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N B NEVADA B N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 20 2009 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH N N ARIZONA B N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$