028 FXUS06 KWBC 061902 PMDMRD PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD 300 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 16 2008 MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT TODAY, AS THEY HAVE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AROUND THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO FORM A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS DIFFERING ON THE LOCATION, WHILE LAST NIGHT'S EURO MODEL HAS THE LOW FARTHER WEST AND EJECTS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE CANADIAN RUN FORMS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A COMBINATION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MAY BE THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT, WITH A BIT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE CONSIDERED IN THE 500-HPA BLEND AS WELL. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NATION, WITH COLD AIR TRACKING FROM THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND NAEFS (CANADIAN AND U.S. ENSEMBLE). THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 14 - 20 2008 FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN, FEATURING HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR THE ALEUTIANS, WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST, AND WEAKLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSE CLOSED LOW ALOFT SHOWN BY TODAY'S 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN ON DAY 8 APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WHEN COMPARED WITH OTHER MODELS AND LAST NIGHT'S GFS ENSEMBLE, IT DOES LOOK LIKELY THAT A TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS, AND THE FRONTAL RAINS COULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER AIR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER FORECASTS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON: KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON: NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND CONSIDERATION OF THE LATEST 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN. FORECASTER: DOUG LECOMTE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960916 - 19881005 - 19810918 - 19620928 - 19660918 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19881005 - 19810918 - 19960915 - 19620930 - 19870920 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 16 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 14 - 20 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B A NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$