047 
FXUS66 KLOX 141707
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 AM PDT TUE OCT 14 2008

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND FIRES REMAIN THE STORY TODAY. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME 
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS EVIDENCED BY THE MORNING SAN DIEGO 
SOUNDING THAT SHOWED NORTHEAST WINDS 20+KT ALL THE WAY UP TO 25KFT. 
WITH THE OFFSHORE GRADS QUICKLY WEAKENING HOWEVER...AND THE UPPER 
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE WINDS OVER OUR AREA HAVE 
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE 
FIREFIGHTING FOLKS. AS A RESULT...UPDATED TODAYS FORECAST BY 
LOWERING WINDS IN MOST AREAS...AND DROPPING THE ADVISORY IN THE LA 
COAST WHILE DOWNGRADING A WARNING IN THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. IT 
WILL STILL BE RATHER GUSTY IN THE MTNS AND VLYS OF LA/VTU 
COUNTIES...BUT A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT WE WERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTING. 
THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ALL ADVISORIES 
SHOULD EXPIRE ON TRACK...THROUGH THE MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY 
TONIGHT BUT IT IS BORDER LINE AT BEST.

TEMPS ALREADY TRENDING UP QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...AND TODAY 
STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM. EXPECTING SOLID 80S IN ALL VALLEYS AND 
COASTAL SECTIONS.

...FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...

ANOTHER TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH VERY DRY AIR AND 
CLEAR SKIES THE WIND FREE AREAS WILL COOL OF NICELY BUT SOME 
RESIDUAL WINDS WILL REMAIN AND THOSE AREAS WILL NOT COOL MUCH AT ALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND 585DM HGTS 
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE TEMPS IN THE 80S AND EVEN A SOME ISOLATED 
90S.

NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING OVER THU AND FRI AS A 
RIDGE IS FCST TO POP UP FROM MEXICO. HGTS OVER SOCAL STAY AROUND 
585DM AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EACH MORNING WILL DELAY THE SEABREEZE. 
THESE FACTORS WILL MEAN THAT TEMPS WILL REALLY ONLY COOL A DEGREE OR 
TWO EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WILL SEE AROUND 5 DEGREES OF 
COOLING FROM WEDNESDAY TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN EC GOES OFF ON 
ITS OWN. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THINK THE EC SOLN 
IS AN OUTLIER.

A TROF MOVES INTO THE EAST PAC SATURDAY BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH 
OFFSHORE WHERE IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER EXCEPT 
FOR A BETTER SEABREEZE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HGTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO 
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

THE TROF MOVES OVER SUN AND MON AND THIS SHOULD BRING A MARINE LAYER 
BACK TO SOME COASTAL SECTIONS. HGTS DROP INTO THE UPPER 570S. AND 
THE NEXT ONSHORE PUSH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS SETS UP. THIS SHOULD LEAD 
TO A NICE ROUND OF COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1700Z.
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED LOCATIONS NEAR THE FIRES MAY 
EXPERIENCE TEMPORARY OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE. GUSTY WINDS WILL 
CAUSE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR KBUR AND 
KVNY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS 
AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY 
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET

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