516 WTPA21 PHFO 120829 TCMCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008 0900 UTC TUE AUG 12 2008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 171.3W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 171.3W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 170.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 11.5N 173.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.7N 176.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.0N 178.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 171.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD 939 WTPA31 PHFO 120834 TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008 1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008 ...KIKA WEAKENING FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII...AND ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH... AND THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIKA IS DISSIPATING...AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.2 N...171.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD 838 WTPA41 PHFO 120841 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008 1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008 ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF KIKA/S EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE CENTER ONLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED...AND GIVING KIKA A SLIGHTLY BETTER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP LED TO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THOSE COLD TOPS ARE NOW WARMING. KIKA REMAINS A WEAK CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AS A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS KIKA AS AN OPEN WAVE. KIKA IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. KIKA/S INABILITY TO ORGANIZE UNDER THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MEANS THAT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT KIKA WILL DEVELOP UNDER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE PERSISTENTLY STUBBORN SHIPS MODEL...WHICH FORECASTS KIKA TO BE A TYPHOON IN 120 HOURS. ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH KIKA/S DISSIPATING CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...AND KIKA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THAT KIKA WILL BE WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AS IT APPROACHES THE DATE LINE. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON KIKA...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 11.2N 171.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 11.5N 173.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 13/0600Z 11.7N 176.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/1800Z 12.0N 178.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD 930 WTPA41 PHFO 121143 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008 1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008 ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF KIKA/S EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE CENTER ONLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED...AND GIVING KIKA A SLIGHTLY BETTER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP LED TO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THOSE COLD TOPS ARE NOW WARMING. KIKA REMAINS A WEAK CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AS A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS KIKA AS AN OPEN WAVE. KIKA IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. KIKA/S INABILITY TO ORGANIZE UNDER THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MEANS THAT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT KIKA WILL DEVELOP UNDER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE PERSISTENTLY STUBBORN SHIPS MODEL...WHICH FORECASTS KIKA TO BE A TYPHOON IN 120 HOURS. ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH KIKA/S DISSIPATING CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...AND KIKA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THAT KIKA WILL BE WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AS IT APPROACHES THE DATE LINE. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON KIKA...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 11.2N 171.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 11.5N 173.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 13/0600Z 11.7N 176.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/1800Z 12.0N 178.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD