309 WTPZ25 KNHC 110834 TCMEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 0900 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 112.5W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 55NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 112.5W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.5N 111.4W...INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.3N 109.2W...INLAND MAINLAND MEXICO MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 106.6W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART 517 WTPZ35 KNHC 110837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...NORBERT REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORBERT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. HOWEVER...NORBERT COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TONIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...23.5 N...112.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART 809 WTPZ45 KNHC 110846 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NORBERT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS RE-STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE. A 23-NMI DIAMETER ROUND EYE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DISTINCT AND IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE NOT FAR FROM BEING CLASSIFIED AS T6.0/115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13. NORBERT REMAINS ON TRACK... AND GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED NOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...NORBERT SHOULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS....WHICH CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BAHIA MAGDALENA AND SANTA FE. THE BETTER DEFINED EYE...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE EYE...IMPROVING OUTFLOW...AND SSTS NEAR 28C SUGGEST THAT NORBERT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING... BUT NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. JUST HOW STRONG NORBERT WILL BE AT THE SECOND LANDFALL WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW STRONG IT IS WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. AFTER NORBERT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL BECOME STRETCHED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS...THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THAT NORBERT IS A STRONGER CYCLONE. AS NORBERT CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS... ITS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE ADVECTED WELL AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE CIRCULATION...AND INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE REGION COULD POSSIBLY CREATE A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE THAT OF HURRICANE TICO OF 1983. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 23.5N 112.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5N 111.4W 80 KT...INLAND BAJA 24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.3N 109.2W 35 KT...INLAND MEXICO 36HR VT 12/1800Z 31.5N 106.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART 764 WTPZ31 KNHC 110858 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...ODILE A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST AT A SLOWER SPEED EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN 765 WTPZ41 KNHC 110858 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO BE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES BEFORE 06Z SUGGESTED INCREASED CORE BANDING...AND THE 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.5. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT...WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS/LGEM MODELS FORECASTING ODILE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GFDL/HWRF SHOW IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSFICATION...AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT LESSENING OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR... AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12...WITH THE FASTER SPEED PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE AND A STRONGER INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER EASTERLIES ALOFT. THE FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND HURRICANE NORBERT. UNTIL THEN...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE IN ACCORD WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. ONLY THE HWRF AND NOGAPS BRING THE CENTER INLAND. AFTER 24-36 HOURS... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPLIT THE UPPER AND LOWER PARTS OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOWER PORTION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE UPPER PORTION MORE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE AS A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND. GIVEN THAT ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WOULD BRING A HURRICANE TO THE COASTLINE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.6N 100.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.5N 102.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 17.9N 103.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 104.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.0N 105.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN 074 WTPZ21 KNHC 110859 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 0900 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008 AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 100.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 75SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 100.6W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.5N 102.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.9N 103.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N 104.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 100.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN 717 WTPZ31 KNHC 111147 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 500 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...ODILE HUGGING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...140 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST AT A SLOWER SPEED EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA 973 WTPZ35 KNHC 111148 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 500 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...NEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING... THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT NORBERT COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TONIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...23.6 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA 778 WTPZ31 KNHC 111443 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ON ROUTE... AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST AT A SLOWER SPEED EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST... ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING ODILE TO HURRICANE STATUS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...101.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA 779 WTPZ21 KNHC 111443 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008 AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 75SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 103.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.1N 104.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.3N 105.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.3N 106.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA 166 WTPZ41 KNHC 111443 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER OF ODILE WITHIN THIS LARGE BUT SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS DISTORTED BY SHEAR AND BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND THIS POSITION MATCHES WITH EXTRAPOLATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND WITH NO OTHER DATA AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS ODILE TO HURRICANE STATUS BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SOPHISTICATED GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING SHEAR...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE OVER WATER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. ODILE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD...IT WILL PROBABLY FORCE ODILE ON A MORE WEST AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS MY PREDECESSOR. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIFLUENT. HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE ODILE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BRINGING IT INLAND IN A DAY OR SO AND THE OTHER HALF TURNED THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. THEY ALL HAVE ONE THING IN COMMON...THEY BASICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE RATHER QUICKLY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD ODILE SO WE WILL KNOW MORE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.2N 101.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 103.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 18.1N 104.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 18.3N 105.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 18.3N 106.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA 827 WTPZ25 KNHC 111448 TCMEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 111.9W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 111.9W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 110.4W...OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 107.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA 928 WTPZ35 KNHC 111448 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...NORBERT SOON TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...WEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA... BUT NORBERT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...24.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA 569 WTPZ45 KNHC 111449 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NORBERT HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED THIS MORNING...AS THE EYE HAS FILLED IN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE OF THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES. A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...HOWEVER...YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. NORBERT IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KT...AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST NORBERT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND USES A BLEND OF THE DIFFERING SPEEDS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE THE CYCLONE...BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF NORBERT'S INTENSITY. AFTER LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 24.3N 111.9W 90 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 110.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 107.8W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA 041 WTPZ65 KNHC 111654 TCUEP5 HURRICANE NORBERT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 955 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT MADE LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO CHARLEY ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 930 AM PDT...1630 UTC...WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 105 MPH...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. PUERTO CHARLEY IS LOCATED BETWEEN SANTA FE AND BAHIA MAGDALENA. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA