606 WTPH20 RPMM 231200 TTT WARNING 02 AT 1200 23 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 241200 ONE ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST AT 251200 ONE TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST AND AT 261200 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEAHTER MANILA= 831 WTPQ31 PGUM 231542 TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009 200 AM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...TROPICAL STORM NIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 375 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK 210 MILES NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT 210 MILES WEST OF ULUL 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SATAWAL 140 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP 340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 435 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN 580 MILES EAST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE STORM CENTER. REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING. $$ LEE 607 WTPQ20 RJTD 231500 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0922 NIDA (0922) ANALYSIS PSTN 231500UTC 09.0N 146.7E POOR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 241500UTC 09.6N 143.4E 70NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT GUST 065KT 45HF 251200UTC 11.2N 141.8E 110NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT GUST 070KT 69HF 261200UTC 13.4N 139.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT = 535 WTNT80 EGRR 231800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.11.2009 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231626 110 WTIO22 FMEE 231812 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERN QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 06 UTC: 10.1S / 52.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 18 UTC: 10.3S / 51.1E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: PRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH, AS ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSION REMAINS HIGH SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= 304 WTIO21 FMEE 231812 METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 005/05 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (BONGANI) 998 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES UN EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-OUEST. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 60 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD OUEST PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 10.1S / 52.0E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 24/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 10.3S / 51.1E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA PRESSION AU CENTRE RESTE ELEVE EN RAISON DES HAUTS VALEURS DU CHAMP DE PRESSION ENVIRONNANT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET ORIENTER SA COURSE AU SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.= 402 WTIO22 FMEE 231812 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERN QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 06 UTC: 10.1S / 52.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 18 UTC: 10.3S / 51.1E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: PRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH, AS ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSION REMAINS HIGH SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= 289 WTIO22 FMEE 231812 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40? STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/11/2009 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERN QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 06 UTC: 10.1S / 52.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2009/11/24 AT 18 UTC: 10.3S / 51.1E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: PRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH, AS ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSION REMAINS HIGH SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= 371 WTIO21 FMEE 231812 METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 005/05 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40? LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/11/2009 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (BONGANI) 998 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES UN EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-OUEST. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 60 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD OUEST PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/11/2009 A 06 UTC: 10.1S / 52.0E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 24/11/2009 A 18 UTC: 10.3S / 51.1E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA PRESSION AU CENTRE RESTE ELEVE EN RAISON DES HAUTS VALEURS DU CHAMP DE PRESSION ENVIRONNANT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET ORIENTER SA COURSE AU SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.= 690 WTIO22 FMEE 231812 OTHER INFORMATIONS: PRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH, AS ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSION REMAINS HIGH SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= 706 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER SOUTH EAST TO THE EDGE OF CONVECTION), BUT LAST SATELITE IR IMAGERY SHOW BUILDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 'BONGANI' IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ALONG 50E. FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS WEEKNESS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOWER SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. AS THE STR REBUILT TUESDAY NIGHT, SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE BIT WESTSOUTHWEST WARDS. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION . ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA (MIMIC-TPW), THE DRY AIR PRESENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITATING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION RATE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. UP TO TAU 36 TO 48H, INETNSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO GO ON, WITH A BUILDING POLARWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROCHING SUBTROPICAL JET IN THE SOUTH. ALL INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHER TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.= 064 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER SOUTH EAST TO THE EDGE OF CONVECTION), BUT LAST SATELITE IR IMAGERY SHOW BUILDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 'BONGANI' IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ALONG 50E. FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS WEEKNESS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOWER SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. AS THE STR REBUILT TUESDAY NIGHT, SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE BIT WESTSOUTHWEST WARDS. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION . ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA (MIMIC-TPW), THE DRY AIR PRESENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITATING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION RATE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. UP TO TAU 36 TO 48H, INETNSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO GO ON, WITH A BUILDING POLARWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROCHING SUBTROPICAL JET IN THE SOUTH. ALL INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHER TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 162 WTIO31 FMEE 231827 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/5/20092010 1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES UN EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 998 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 35 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 24/11/2009 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H: 24/11/2009 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, VENT MAX=045KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 36H: 25/11/2009 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 48H: 25/11/2009 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 60H: 26/11/2009 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 26/11/2009 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. LE SYSTEME RESTE DE PETITE TAILLE SEMBLE SUBIR TEMPORAIREMENT UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE SUD-EST, ( LES DERNIERES DONNEES SSMIS DE 1413Z MONTRE UN CENTRE EN BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION), MAIS LA CONVECTION SEMBLE REPRENDRE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES IR. 'BONGANI' SE TROUVE EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'AVANT D'UNE FAIBLESSE PRESENTE AU NIVEAU DE 50E. CETTE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE NE DEVRAIT INFLUENCER LE SYSTEME UNIQUEMENT DURANT LES PROCHAINES 12 HEURES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS RALENTIR ET PRENDRE TEMPORAI REMENT UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD-OUEST. AVEC LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD DURANT LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OUEST-SUD-OUEST. AU NIVEAU DE L'INTENSITE, QUASIMENT TOUS LES FACTEURS RESTENT FAVORABLES. D'APRES LES DONNEES DU CIMSS (MIMIC-TPW), L'AIR SEC PRESENT AU SUD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION POURRAIT RESTER UN FACTEUR LIMITANT LE TAUX D'INTENSIFICATION POUR LES PROCHAINES HEURES. AU DELA DE 36 A 48 HEURES, L'INTENSIFICATION EST PREVU SE POURSUIVRE AVEC LA MISE N PLACE D'UN PUISSANT CANAL DE SORTIE EN ALTITUDE VERS LE POLE A L'ARRIVEE DU JET SUBTROPICAL AU SYSTEME DU SYSTEME LES ZONES HABITEES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES FAHQUAR, DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR AINSI QUE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET MAYOTTE DOIVENT TOUJOURS SUIVRE AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.= 223 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER SOUTH EAST TO THE EDGE OF CONVECTION), BUT LAST SATELITE IR IMAGERY SHOW BUILDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 'BONGANI' IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ALONG 50E. FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS WEEKNESS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOWER SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. AS THE STR REBUILT TUESDAY NIGHT, SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE BIT WESTSOUTHWEST WARDS. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION . ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA (MIMIC-TPW), THE DRY AIR PRESENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITATING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION RATE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. UP TO TAU 36 TO 48H, INETNSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO GO ON, WITH A BUILDING POLARWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROCHING SUBTROPICAL JET IN THE SOUTH. ALL INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHER TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.= 439 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 536 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 537 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ....... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 538 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ..... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 539 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 540 WTIO31 FMEE 231827 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/5/20092010 1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/11/2009 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES UN EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 998 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 35 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 24/11/2009 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, VENT MAX=040KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H: 24/11/2009 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, VENT MAX=045KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 36H: 25/11/2009 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, VENT MAX=050KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 48H: 25/11/2009 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, VENT MAX=060KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 60H: 26/11/2009 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, VENT MAX=070KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 72H: 26/11/2009 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, VENT MAX=080KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. LE SYSTEME RESTE DE PETITE TAILLE SEMBLE SUBIR TEMPORAIREMENT UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE SUD-EST, ( LES DERNIERES DONNEES SSMIS DE 1413Z MONTRE END OF PART ONE 541 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 570 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ........ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 571 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 572 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ........... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 573 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .......... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 574 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ......... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 648 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 701 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 702 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 703 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .............. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 704 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 431 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 432 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 433 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 434 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ..................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 487 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ....................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 488 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ........................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 489 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 374 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ......................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 388 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ........................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 389 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .......................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 423 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 424 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 538 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .............................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 539 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 540 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 541 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 542 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 543 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 544 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER SOUTH EAST TO THE EDGE OF CONVECTION), BUT LAST SATELITE IR IMAGERY SHOW BUILDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 'BONGANI' IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ALONG 50E. FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS WEEKNESS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOWER SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. AS THE STR REBUILT TUESDAY NIGHT, SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE BIT WESTSOUTHWEST WARDS. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION . ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA (MIMIC-TPW), THE DRY AIR PRESENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITATING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION RATE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. UP TO TAU 36 TO 48H, INETNSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO GO ON, WITH A BUILDING POLARWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROCHING SUBTROPICAL JET IN THE SOUTH. ALL INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHER TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.= 545 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 546 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 824 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ..................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 915 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ....................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 916 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ......................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 917 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .......................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 918 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 919 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ........................................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 995 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .............................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 996 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ........................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 997 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 998 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 647 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 684 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 686 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 687 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 688 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .................................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 689 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 803 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ........................................................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 804 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 805 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ..................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 806 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ....................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 416 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ......................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 472 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ........................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 473 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 474 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .......................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 475 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................................................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 502 WTJP21 RJTD 231800 WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0922 NIDA (0922) 998 HPA AT 09.0N 146.3E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 09.7N 143.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 11.9N 140.9E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 14.6N 139.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= 536 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .............................................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 537 WTPQ20 RJTD 231800 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0922 NIDA (0922) ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 09.0N 146.3E POOR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 120NM NORTH 70NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 09.7N 143.0E 70NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT GUST 065KT 48HF 251800UTC 11.9N 140.9E 110NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 72HF 261800UTC 14.6N 139.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT GUST 085KT = 543 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ............................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 544 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................................................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 545 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 546 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .................................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 548 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .................................................................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 549 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ................................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 405 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ..................................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 531 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 532 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 533 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 534 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 535 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 640 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 641 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 642 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 643 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 644 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 645 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF SMALL SIZE, AND SEEMS UNDER GOING A TEMPORARY SOUTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT, (LAST SSMIS DATA 1413Z SHOWS THE CENTER END OF PART ONE 963 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 964 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 969 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 970 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 066 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 067 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 068 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 069 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 071 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 072 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 073 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 10.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/11/26 18 UTC: 11.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 251 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 826 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 896 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... .......................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 897 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 898 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... .......................... ........................... 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 899 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... .......................... ........................... ............................ 36H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND= END OF PART ONE 900 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... END OF PART ONE 044 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... .......................... END OF PART ONE 045 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... END OF PART ONE 046 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ END OF PART ONE 047 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... .......................... ........................... ............................ END OF PART ONE 048 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... .......................... ........................... END OF PART ONE 049 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... .......................... ........................... ............................ ............................. END OF PART ONE 403 WTIO30 FMEE 231827 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20092010 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BONGANI) 2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 53.1E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 10.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM ...................................................................... .. ... .... ..... ...... ....... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ ............. .............. ............... ................ ................. .................. ................... .................... ..................... ...................... ....................... ........................ ......................... .......................... ........................... ............................ ............................. .............................. END OF PART ONE 919 WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NIDA 0922 (0922) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 8.9N 146.4E 996HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 9.7N 142.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 11.5N 140.2E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 13.8N 138.1E 965HPA 38M/S P+96HR 15.5N 136.5E 955HPA 40M/S= 953 WTKO20 RKSL 231800 KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0922 NIDA ANALYSIS POSITION 231800UTC 9.0N 146.3E MOVEMENT WNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 241800UTC 9.7N 143.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT 48HR POSITION 251800UTC 12.1N 141.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT 72HR POSITION 261800UTC 15.0N 138.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 66KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. 670 WTPN31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 8.7N 146.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 146.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.5N 144.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.5N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 11.5N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 12.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 14.9N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.8N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 145.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 26W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 23/1621Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER- LOW NEAR 25N 165E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO STAIR-STEP AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. ECMWF FIELDS WERE ALSO USED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 784 WTPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 126.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 126.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 10.0N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 9.7N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 9.2N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 8.9N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 9.1N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 9.8N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 10.9N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 125.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 231745Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATED A DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC USING LOWER RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS (PGTW) BASED ON THE WEAK BANDING. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WITHIN 600NM OF TS 26W AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH TS 26W, WHICH WILL DRIVE A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED TRACK TOWARD TS 26W. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER NEAR TAU 48 AND IS FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL TS STRENGTH UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 581 WTPH20 RPMM 231800 TTT WARNING 03 AT 1800 23 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 241800 ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR EAST AT 251800 ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 261800 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= 512 WTPH20 RPMM 232000 FFBB 23200 98558 59653 00030 05044 08057 10057 13070 15071 18076 21070 23071 25065 27066 29061 32053 00030 40000 /999/= 570 WTPH20 RPMM 232100 FFBB 23210 98558 59653 00024 06038 09046 12049 15059 18075 27070 23073 25067 27068 29063 32060 00024 40000 /999/= 065 WTPQ31 PGUM 232126 TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009 800 AM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...TROPICAL STORM NIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK 250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT 260 MILES WEST OF ULUL 130 MILES NORTHWEST OF SATAWAL 95 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 430 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN 535 MILES EAST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ SIMPSON 825 WTPQ20 RJTD 232100 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0922 NIDA (0922) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 09.0N 146.0E POOR MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 120NM NORTH 70NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 09.8N 142.7E 70NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT GUST 065KT 45HF 251800UTC 11.9N 140.9E 110NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 69HF 261800UTC 14.6N 139.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT GUST 085KT = 163 WTXS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 9.1S 52.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 52.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.5S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 9.9S 51.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 10.3S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 10.7S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 11.6S 46.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 12.9S 44.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.4S 42.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER, A 231758Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 230523Z ASCAT IMAGE (25-KM) SHOWING 40-45 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THEN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE STR STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN POLEWARD OVER WATER. NOGAPS IS THE OUTLIER AND TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD LATER, AS IT TRACKS OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// 574 WTXS51 PGTW 232100 WARNING ATCP MIL 02S SIO 091123211251 2009112318 02S BONGANI 002 01 240 06 SATL 060 T000 091S 0527E 045 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD T012 095S 0520E 045 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD T024 099S 0513E 050 R034 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD T036 103S 0505E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD T048 107S 0494E 065 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD T072 116S 0465E 075 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD T096 129S 0442E 065 T120 144S 0423E 055 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 9.1S 52.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 52.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.5S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 9.9S 51.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 10.3S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 10.7S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 11.6S 46.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 12.9S 44.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.4S 42.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER, A 231758Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 230523Z ASCAT IMAGE (25-KM) SHOWING 40-45 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THEN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE STR STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN POLEWARD OVER WATER. NOGAPS IS THE OUTLIER AND TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD LATER, AS IT TRACKS OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// 0209112018 106S 614E 20 0209112100 105S 610E 20 0209112106 101S 601E 20 0209112112 99S 594E 20 0209112118 98S 586E 20 0209112200 97S 577E 25 0209112206 92S 564E 30 0209112212 87S 555E 30 0209112218 85S 547E 30 0209112300 85S 542E 30 0209112306 86S 536E 40 0209112312 88S 532E 45 0209112318 91S 527E 45