747 FXUS04 KWBC 131753 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 152 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID OCT 14/0000 UTC THRU OCT 15/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... SRN TO CNTRL PLAINS AND ROCKIES... MODELS CONTINUE TO THE SHOW THE SPLITTING OF THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP WRN U.S. LOW INTO THE TWO SEGMENTS. THE NRN PORTION...POSITIONED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF PROGRESSIVE PAC FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN CAN...IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN CAN...REACHING SERN QUE BY THE END THE PERIOD. THE SRN PORTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MUCH SLOWER TRACK...MOMENTARILY DEVELOPING A CLOSED CTR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CTRL/SRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW OVR THE SRN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SINKING SWD ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. RECENT TRENDS IN THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT THE MODELS INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN...WITH GFS FARTHER TO THE SE THAN THE EC/CMC. THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED CLOSER TO THE FARTHER NWWD QPF AXIS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED OVERRUNNING TO THE EAST OF THE SWRN CLOSED LOW. ALSO...TRENDS IN THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. AREAL AVG 1-2+ AMTS ARE DEPICTED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...NEWD TO S CTRL KS WITH LIGHTER AMTS EXTENDING FURTHER TO THE N AND W. REFER TO HPC WINTER WX PRODUCTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES. GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST... GIVEN THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BNDRY AND WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOCUSED N OF THE CAN BORDER...AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LGT SIDE DESPITE FAIRLY MOST PWS PRECEDING THE FRONTAL BAND. FL... THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWS AND STRONGEST ONSHORE ELY FLOW HAS BEEN SINKING SWD OVR THE PAST FEWS DAYS ON THE S SIDE OF THE BUILDING ERN CLOSED HIGH. THIS WL CONCENTRATE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACRS THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1. ISOLATED MDT/HVY TOTALS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CNTRL TO SERN FL COAST WHERE TRAINING OF RAINBANDS IN A E TO W DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE. PAC NW... HT FALLS MOVG SEWD FROM THE NERN PAC INTO THE PAC NW/SWRN CAN WL PUSH AN ASSOC SFC FRONT INLAND MON ACRS THE PAC NW. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING PWS ALONG THE FRONT WL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FOCUSED LGT AMTS. PEREIRA GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 15/00Z 0.01 231985 233990 235993 241999 252008 260014 265021 266028 264030 253030 245029 239028 236032 237035 241038 249044 234060 237066 240070 242073 249076 255077 260077 267077 273075 277073 280071 286065 288062 294059 298059 302061 311065 322078 324081 328082 334085 338086 347085 355086 364086 369086 372088 375090 379091 385093 390091 391087 390083 389079 393077 395073 393069 391064 395061 402054 405051 406047 406043 400034 398030 400026 402022 410011 414004 418996 419992 420984 421970 420955 419947 422943 429938 436931 443923 450914 458905 461902 467898 477895 486894 494899 499900 504899 509895 512890 515883 514876 510855 506839 501822 497810 494797 491781 488762 488747 489734 490727 488721 489713 487707 485702 485696 488690 492685 496677 497671 497663 494659 491657 486659 482661 478666 472676 464684 460688 455694 452703 444713 443719 445727 446730 445733 439736 434740 431744 428751 426757 425763 430767 436767 440766 444762 448756 452749 454743 457736 460735 463738 461744 455765 450775 446784 435802 432811 431816 432821 436824 441827 441834 435845 426861 415879 403898 392916 389920 385925 379930 375934 372935 370936 370934 372930 378919 381910 387887 391880 393875 393873 387871 383872 376877 368885 361894 350909 342917 337922 334926 333930 332936 333942 336958 337962 336966 333970 326975 318980 310984 299988 289990 284991 280990 278988 282987 292983 297981 301978 305972 307965 305959 303953 303946 303924 299910 299899 298892 296886 293883 288882 282887 275889 272890 267894 266897 267903 268913 266926 259942 254949 246953 238955 233958 231962 0.01 536216 537209 537202 537196 538186 536173 532165 528156 528150 529143 531136 531129 531122 529113 528103 529095 527081 527065 526052 524044 520038 514035 508036 503045 496086 494098 492106 490116 487121 484123 474121 465122 461127 457135 453150 449158 448163 449167 453176 450186 451193 452195 454193 459190 464185 468179 474176 480181 482187 483192 482198 477204 468205 462207 458211 455214 453214 446216 441218 443222 447224 452224 456225 457228 452232 448232 446236 446242 447246 451250 456249 461250 471250 477251 481252 486252 487248 489242 491234 496237 501244 506253 511267 514269 516268 517263 516253 512236 507227 505220 503211 501207 502203 504201 507202 510205 515211 519217 523220 527222 531223 534220 536216 0.01 477150 478146 477145 475146 476150 477150 0.01 448878 447877 444877 441878 438879 436880 433881 431883 433887 434887 437886 440885 442884 445883 447878 448878 0.01 308815 305810 301808 292804 286799 279794 270790 262788 256788 251789 247790 243793 240797 238801 237811 238821 240832 241834 245838 248838 252835 254832 256827 258816 260812 266812 274814 284812 289812 294814 301818 305820 307818 308815 0.25 524192 524178 522163 519158 515157 514166 510167 505165 502163 499161 496161 491157 488156 485157 483160 483165 486170 492179 499186 502189 508191 520196 524192 0.25 496858 494849 492841 490837 486831 484832 481835 479839 477844 475849 474854 475858 478861 481865 486867 491869 494868 495863 496858 0.25 503155 503150 500147 497145 495142 493140 492138 489135 488134 486133 484134 483135 481138 483139 486143 488148 489148 491151 494152 496154 497155 499156 502155 503155 0.25 495222 496217 494213 493212 491210 488208 486208 483207 480208 476209 474211 473212 471214 470215 467218 469221 472220 473219 475219 478219 481220 484222 487222 490223 492224 495222 0.25 408976 407966 405960 403954 402946 401941 398940 382948 368958 362963 352967 346972 339978 325988 320993 316000 308015 309023 309033 310042 312046 316049 322053 330056 335057 338059 343066 347072 351075 355077 363075 367075 371078 375083 378082 380075 374057 379056 383053 384049 383044 382040 381034 385024 389016 393009 400002 404993 408984 408976 0.25 267799 263797 260796 256795 253795 250796 246799 245803 243807 243812 244817 247819 249816 250812 252809 255807 257806 263805 266802 267799 0.25 269965 267959 261957 253957 245959 241963 239969 240974 242976 248978 253980 260978 266974 268968 269965 0.50 515181 515180 513175 510173 507171 504170 503169 502167 499165 496166 493166 493167 495171 495172 498175 501177 503181 504183 506185 509187 512186 514185 515182 515181 0.50 488215 488214 485211 482211 479211 477212 479215 481216 483218 484219 485219 488216 488215 0.50 405973 402966 399964 396963 390958 383958 377960 369964 356973 332989 326993 321999 319006 318016 317034 318042 324047 330048 339049 348050 350052 351058 352066 355070 359071 374072 372064 369061 367056 369052 372050 376050 375046 372044 374038 377032 378028 378021 380014 385006 396997 400992 403985 405977 405973 0.50 260802 259802 255800 253801 253802 255801 258802 259802 260802 0.50 256970 257967 254965 253964 251964 249964 246964 245965 244968 244969 246971 247972 249974 250974 252973 253973 255971 256970 1.00 386980 385974 383972 379970 376970 369972 362976 346986 339990 333994 328999 324005 323011 324017 325022 325029 325034 326039 330041 335041 342037 352036 359031 364026 368018 371011 375002 379996 384989 386980 1.50 369993 370989 369984 365982 361984 356988 350990 343992 334998 330001 327005 326009 327013 328019 332035 335034 339032 343029 348026 351023 354017 359012 364005 369993 2.00 345000 344999 341999 338000 336001 333003 332005 330007 330008 330011 330015 331016 334017 337015 338014 339012 340010 342008 342007 343003 344002 345000 $$