983 FXUS04 KWBC 230954 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 454 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID NOV 23/1200 UTC THRU NOV 26/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY 1... 06Z UPDATE... INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG THE S TX COAST BASED ON CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND 00Z CAN GLOBAL WHICH SHOULD STRENTHENING S/SELY FLOW INTO THE REGION AND SURGE OF HIER PWS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE..ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRELIMS. ...ERN U.S.... MID/UPR LEVEL S/WV TROF OVER THE SRN APLCNS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR NEWD THIS PD ALONG THE MID ATLC REGION TOWARD THE NE U.S. PRECEDED BY A MORE DOMINANT BUT DRY IMPULSE LIFTING ACRS NEW ENGLAND. MODELS SHOW LOW PRES REDVLPG ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AND LIFT IT NEWD ALONG THE COAST THIS PD. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER AND SOMEWHAT MORE DVLPD..WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEP THIS AS A RATHER FLAT WAVE WHICH IS PREFERRED. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A RATHER BROAD BUT WEAKENING PCPN SHIELD ADVANCE NEWD ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION INTO THE NE AS UPR FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST..KEEPING DEEPER MSTR AXIS AND BEST 85H THETAE ADV JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. USED MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH PCPN HERE..AS GFS APPEARED TOO FAST..12Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT SLOW AND THE NAM SOMEWHAT TOO WET INLAND. KEPT HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF .50 INCH OR SO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID ATLC COAST NWD INTO LONG ISLAND. ...CNTL U.S...... S/WV TROF PUSHING ACRS THE ROCKIES IS FCST TO EMERGE ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DVLP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACRS KS AND CONTINUE EWD MON NIGHT. PCPN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT ACRS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PD..BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME STEADIER RAINS DVLP TO THE NORTH OF DVLPG 85H-7H CIRC MON NIGHT. OVERALL TIMING OF THE NAM LOOKS SLOW COMPARED TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/GFS SOLNS WHICH WERE PREFERRED. BY LATE IN THE PD..ADVANCING HEIGHT FALLS AND IMPROVING RT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME SCTD CONVECTION ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN TX..BUT WITH MSTR STILL NOT VERY DEEP..EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE GENLY .25 INCH OR LESS ON AVG. ...PAC NW... NEXT UPSTREAM PAC SYSTEM IS FCST TO TAKE A MORE NRN TRACK COMPARED TO LAST SYSTEM..WITH MAIN HEIGHT FALLS AND ONSHORE FLOW BEING DIRECTED INTO B.C. LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. STG RIDGING WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM MON NIGHT AS ASSOCD COLD FRONT WEAKENS ACRS WA. OPERATIONAL AND SREF MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME MDT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACRS COASTAL SECTIONS OF WA/NW OR EWD INTO THE CASCADES. DAYS 2/3... ...PAC NORTHWEST... A LONG STEADY FETCH OF PAC MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUES AND WED... AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ITS DYNAMICS SHEAR OUT TOWARD WRN CANADA ON WED. THE STRONG SWRLY COMPONENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVER TIME IN COMPANION WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/THERMAL BOUNDARY. THUS EXPECT THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR IN THE OLYMPICS AND NRN CASCADES OVER THE TWO DAYS. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DAYS. ...UPR TO MID MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... A POTENT STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TOWARD THE GRT LAKES... AS A DIGGING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CARVES IN BEHIND TO CLOSE OFF ANOTHER LOW OVER LAKE MI BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN... LARGE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONLY CONSISTENT SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE ECMWF. HPC FOLLOWED A COMBO OF THE 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23 ECMWF FOR NOT ONLY MASS FIELDS BOTH DAYS BUT ALSO FOR QPF. ON TUES... THE BULK OF THE FOCUS WILL BE WITH COMA HEAD/DYNAMIC COOLING QPF EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STAKED LOW AND WAA PRECIP AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH... BASICALLY FROM ERN NE THROUGH IA INTO SRN WI/MUCH OF IL. THEN ON WED... THIS LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GRT LAKES REGION WHILE A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR LAKE MI. THE BULK OF THE QPF ON D3 WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY INTO THE GRT LAKES WITH ENHANCED DYNAMIC COOLING QPF ACROSS SERN MN INTO SRN WI. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... THE MODEL GUIDANCE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE WAVE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND AREA ON TUES/D2. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF WITH THE 00Z NAM... WHICH WOULD ALLOW ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS ERN/SRN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVES LATE TUES INTO WED. ...SOUTH TX TO FLORIDA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VLY ON D2 WILL EXTEND ITS RELATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH SERN TX AND INTERACTING WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET AND DEEP LL MOISTURE... ALMOST A SUBTROPICAL JET. IN FACT... A NUMBER OF THE MODELS INDICATE AN ACTUAL VORT LOBE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE TX COASTLINE AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM ON D3/WED INTO FL AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR D2 WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH TX AND THE COAST AND THEN ON D3... THE ECMWF AS A BASE ACROSS FL AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE VORT LOBE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL INTERACT WITH 1.75 INCH PWS FOR LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS FL ON WED. SULLIVAN/MUSHER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 24/12Z 0.01 539210 533186 529178 528170 525168 520165 518162 512162 506163 501162 496159 490159 474153 467147 462147 460152 463162 467165 470166 478172 481174 483178 483182 484185 486188 491191 493195 494198 493202 491202 486202 480203 473204 467209 464212 460214 458215 452215 449217 446222 447225 450228 452228 443240 436261 434268 433275 434282 436286 441286 444285 452282 463291 470291 477290 485288 494288 505287 510286 516283 524256 521253 519247 517240 515233 514228 513225 510223 508219 506216 508212 512212 517214 520219 522224 528228 530231 533232 0.01 230976 234980 240981 247980 251982 254987 259990 269991 281986 286984 291980 294976 297975 299977 297983 294989 293995 293002 294006 295007 297009 300008 307002 315993 321985 324981 329977 336974 338977 341979 349977 356973 363971 370970 377970 382973 380978 380984 379991 381000 382005 382009 385013 392021 397026 392032 389039 387050 387060 384064 384069 382069 378072 380079 382081 385080 387079 389082 392082 396085 400079 405077 412077 418074 422075 425073 428069 430069 432072 436076 443078 450080 451075 450073 447069 445068 439066 436062 432056 427052 417047 415041 416036 423023 430009 433994 435986 439981 443978 450977 456985 458989 462992 465990 468987 473981 478973 487966 491960 494953 497946 501940 505934 507933 508927 513913 515906 516897 518881 518871 518860 517843 515834 508831 505829 503830 500837 493850 488864 481873 464900 459904 452906 438910 433911 426910 415913 412915 410914 404913 394911 388910 380912 364916 357919 353922 341929 303956 298957 293955 284952 273946 267944 260945 252944 244948 237953 231959 0.01 497154 497148 495141 492138 489135 484130 478129 472130 469136 471141 477145 480147 485151 488153 494156 496157 497154 0.01 433703 432697 431692 427683 421676 417674 405671 398672 393673 386677 379683 374687 371691 368693 357704 352709 347715 343727 341733 338736 331741 325747 316755 306765 297774 294778 291781 286780 276792 268799 260808 257813 258816 262817 262820 265824 269824 275820 279815 282812 289809 293808 293804 291801 295795 299791 310783 323777 327777 333775 337777 339779 344784 347789 350798 352806 355815 361819 366819 374817 381813 385810 391804 395800 398794 400786 403784 407783 412781 417778 428779 431773 434767 437763 440761 441755 441744 439739 436734 434728 433720 433703 0.01 449113 449109 447106 446105 445101 444099 442096 441096 438096 435097 432097 430100 429104 426106 425107 426109 429111 430112 432112 435113 438114 440116 443116 446116 449113 0.01 416820 412809 410806 407808 402812 397817 393823 388830 387837 388840 391842 398843 402841 405837 410831 414825 416820 0.25 531209 531203 528198 526192 523186 521181 515178 513175 508174 506178 506183 507193 508196 510198 514199 519203 524207 527209 531209 0.25 517263 515252 511240 506230 499218 497214 491212 479209 477209 474211 471214 469218 472223 478221 480222 484223 487228 485232 482234 480233 470232 464232 461237 456247 451256 450261 453263 456261 460260 463264 464267 467268 472272 475274 480276 490275 498278 504279 508278 512275 515270 517263 0.25 479945 479940 478936 474933 467935 462937 449941 434945 423946 416946 410945 399940 395940 395949 394955 389960 387965 387972 388983 389991 390998 393004 398008 400007 401000 409991 413987 420983 429977 440971 447968 453965 468962 476955 479950 479945 0.25 416693 412687 409684 406684 400686 398690 397694 399702 396708 392715 386717 372723 367726 360733 352743 345748 337753 329757 323762 322763 321767 323769 330768 343766 349767 355769 366773 371780 375784 380785 384782 384774 385766 389759 397755 402755 409754 415750 418744 418734 416715 417704 416693 0.25 373942 369939 366940 363941 358944 355946 352950 349954 348958 351959 356956 359954 364951 367949 370946 373942 0.25 276973 274967 270962 264958 259955 251957 244960 241963 241969 245968 250971 254976 258981 265983 271980 275975 276973 0.50 512271 514267 515262 514257 510245 505234 498224 496221 491220 492227 492234 490238 484239 481242 475242 473246 472249 472254 474259 477263 480266 485270 497273 499274 502275 506274 512271 0.50 520192 520191 517187 516186 515185 513185 512189 514191 517193 520196 520192 0.50 484218 484214 482212 479211 476211 473215 475217 478217 479216 479217 481218 484218 0.50 406726 405722 404719 402718 399719 398719 396719 394721 391723 389726 388729 388731 387734 388737 391739 394740 397740 398740 401739 403738 404735 405733 406730 406727 406726 0.50 438959 434956 429955 421959 418959 414956 405952 402950 400952 398959 395963 391972 392979 394984 397987 401985 408980 420975 428970 436964 438959 0.50 382745 380740 378739 372739 365739 361742 356748 353751 350755 351760 357763 364761 371762 375760 378757 381754 382749 382745 0.50 271974 271971 270968 268966 268965 265963 263963 262962 259962 257963 256964 255967 254970 255971 256973 258974 261975 264976 267976 269975 271974 1.00 512261 510255 508250 505244 502238 500234 497233 496236 493244 489247 486251 486255 487258 490261 495267 498269 500270 504267 504265 508261 510262 512261 1.00 505258 504253 503252 501249 500251 500253 500256 502259 505258 1.00 402970 401966 401970 402970 402970 24HR QP VT 25/12Z 0.01 525256 507223 507218 508216 513216 518218 530234 534225 537214 536206 535202 532193 527184 520178 514174 505174 503176 500182 499192 497199 494200 484200 478200 471204 468209 465210 459215 457218 457222 462229 452239 455242 459245 462247 464251 471258 474264 477274 478278 477284 473292 469302 469311 470315 473319 480320 487318 494316 500311 506306 510299 0.01 456661 452654 448653 446651 440647 434645 423642 416642 411643 408647 401652 399657 399662 399670 402677 404683 407691 404706 403715 400722 392734 386741 381746 380752 382757 389760 395761 401761 408761 414763 424771 427773 431772 435767 436759 434747 432738 436730 439722 440714 441710 444708 451699 454694 459686 459678 457665 456661 0.01 231971 233980 237988 239992 240998 242004 247006 250007 255007 259006 261008 265011 267013 270012 276011 282012 286014 294018 301017 306013 307007 306992 306986 309981 311976 315972 329959 331957 337956 349953 355952 361951 368950 374946 378944 381943 383945 384952 386958 386962 384966 385970 388976 389983 392989 395990 401992 407992 421989 434988 440984 443984 446985 450987 454984 461981 468982 476986 486988 498987 501985 505978 505971 501967 496964 492964 485962 486958 490953 494950 498944 501938 506928 513917 512907 508903 502902 496903 493904 489903 485898 482892 478879 472880 466882 461885 457882 457877 461866 463859 464853 462845 460839 454826 447816 444813 439809 434808 428808 416824 404829 400829 393831 388831 382834 376842 371846 369851 359858 351862 342868 336877 334882 335890 332893 325897 322901 319905 316913 318922 309928 307930 301931 292930 280931 274933 270936 262942 258945 253946 244948 241948 237952 231959 0.01 486139 486138 483135 481133 480133 476134 476138 480138 483139 486139 486139 0.01 479159 476155 473154 470158 470159 469162 470163 472164 474163 476161 479160 479159 0.01 400779 398772 395767 391765 387764 379766 372766 369764 363760 357759 356763 357768 364775 371778 380781 387782 396783 400779 0.01 386798 383794 378792 366795 363798 356802 350806 343809 342813 342817 341822 339826 341833 343839 349840 355837 359833 364828 366823 368817 372812 384805 386798 0.01 296809 294804 289799 283797 277795 271796 267801 267808 268813 273816 280813 287813 290814 294813 296809 0.01 259802 258796 253795 251795 248797 244802 243805 242809 242812 242818 243824 247828 252825 254822 256819 257815 258810 259805 259802 0.25 518278 520272 521265 520259 518254 511241 506234 502230 498227 494227 491229 485235 479235 475237 473241 478257 485273 485279 484286 481298 481303 484306 490306 496305 503300 508294 512288 518278 0.25 442668 438662 432657 425655 419657 412663 408670 411676 416684 419694 421698 427698 432694 438685 441679 443671 442668 0.25 491929 482931 471934 461935 448937 444936 440933 439929 438924 438915 439898 440887 441875 440866 438860 434854 432850 428842 424841 416845 405848 399856 397862 393865 393873 394880 393885 389885 383887 379889 374893 371896 363904 360907 358909 358913 363915 363919 363925 364933 369935 372935 375934 380930 385928 389928 394930 397933 399940 402944 409953 409959 406963 399966 396971 399978 403981 407981 412980 417976 424975 431976 437972 442963 453959 464953 469951 476949 482945 487940 490933 491929 0.25 483218 482214 481213 479211 478212 477216 478218 481219 483218 0.25 280803 279802 276801 276802 278804 280804 280803 0.25 290952 289949 287947 282945 275947 271949 262957 251961 244968 243973 245979 249989 251991 253992 260992 271989 275985 277979 283972 286959 290952 0.50 518273 519265 518257 510244 506239 500233 497233 494235 490240 485242 483244 481249 481257 483263 486271 489279 487289 488297 493300 498300 502296 506292 514281 518273 0.50 434674 434670 431668 431667 428666 427666 424668 421669 420672 420673 421676 422679 423683 425686 426687 429686 431684 433680 434675 434674 0.50 442950 436947 433945 433940 432928 433920 434911 431900 429898 425898 418898 414899 410901 401904 399906 397909 397915 403920 408926 410933 413943 416951 418959 418963 421967 425970 431970 435964 438955 442950 0.50 383914 383910 383906 381905 378907 378908 378912 379914 382914 383914 0.50 281957 278955 275955 272957 270958 265962 262965 260967 258970 256976 259980 264981 270979 272977 275973 277970 278963 280960 281957 1.00 515276 517270 517263 515255 510249 502243 500246 498251 494250 490249 487251 485257 486263 490270 493279 494288 498292 502291 506287 512280 515276 1.00 425918 424914 423912 423910 420908 418908 417908 414908 411910 411911 412913 414917 415920 416924 416928 417930 418931 420932 423931 424930 424926 425922 425920 425918 1.50 512275 515267 515262 514259 512254 506252 503255 499257 494256 488256 489263 492267 494272 495280 497287 500289 503288 507285 510279 512275 2.00 513266 512261 508257 505259 501261 496261 494263 494268 496273 497278 498284 500286 503285 507283 509279 512270 513266 3.00 502280 505277 505272 504267 503267 501268 499269 499274 499276 501280 502280 24HR QP VT 26/12Z 0.01 527252 525248 522245 520241 517238 515233 513227 510222 505216 503210 506208 509208 512208 515210 520215 523218 527223 531226 534227 541202 541197 539194 535186 527177 520174 513175 508177 503183 489203 486205 485205 481205 477207 473209 467213 459219 450227 443236 433245 430250 427255 423264 421273 422282 427285 437283 442281 446280 449284 449290 450294 452296 455300 459302 466304 471303 476300 481296 486294 491294 498295 504296 510297 0.01 524904 520898 515894 509893 506891 504883 502868 503856 504847 503839 499819 495807 491798 486789 481782 479778 476776 469773 463770 458765 453760 449760 446761 438766 432772 427777 422779 415779 415775 417770 423758 424748 424743 420739 405741 397744 390749 384751 380752 375756 365759 362763 358763 358757 358752 355747 351744 345743 337745 329749 313759 299767 293771 288772 280773 272774 266774 258777 251782 247787 242797 237809 235816 235823 236828 239838 243839 249839 255840 260843 264849 267857 272875 277888 285903 289905 295902 297899 298895 299888 302881 306877 309871 309862 308852 309845 314833 317828 321822 329810 335805 339799 345785 351774 354768 357765 359766 360768 362774 364776 371778 383780 389780 394785 396790 390796 388799 384803 385806 380821 378828 374834 368839 359844 349853 343859 343863 348866 351867 356865 361861 365859 367861 370871 372876 372881 382896 384901 388907 392913 397921 401928 404936 410941 415944 426953 436963 445977 446979 451979 458981 485993 491993 495993 500991 500981 499976 497972 487961 482956 481951 485948 493947 499942 508938 513931 520917 524904 0.25 524261 523256 520251 515243 511233 507225 501217 496213 491213 486214 483216 478223 472229 464234 459238 453243 447251 445254 444261 446264 451264 459264 462268 461274 462286 465290 468293 475292 488285 491283 496284 506287 509288 514286 0.25 477839 475828 471818 468811 464805 454795 449792 445800 441804 433809 429815 427823 423829 420836 421842 426846 430851 432854 433860 432867 429874 423888 419904 417910 417918 420926 423931 433940 439942 446944 453943 457941 461938 470927 475924 478921 479917 480910 481897 480889 479877 478865 477857 476844 477839 0.25 350755 346754 342754 337755 331759 323765 311774 304777 295780 283782 276783 268786 260789 253793 245803 242809 242815 243824 248829 253831 259832 271833 277837 279846 280850 283854 289855 295850 298846 305833 312822 320811 336788 343777 346772 350763 350755 0.50 517278 520272 522265 521259 519254 515248 511238 507230 504224 500220 496218 492217 487218 485221 483227 479231 475232 473234 468240 464247 464251 466256 470262 468275 471282 474284 478284 490280 506282 513281 517278 0.50 465826 464822 462819 459816 458816 455815 454814 452815 451816 450820 450821 452824 454826 456827 458827 461829 464828 465826 0.50 445883 444880 442879 436883 431889 427897 425905 425914 428921 434927 440930 444929 446924 447920 444908 444896 445887 445883 0.50 346761 345758 343758 335760 329764 323769 318774 311778 302783 295785 288788 280790 275791 268792 263793 256796 252799 250802 249805 251813 254823 260826 265826 278823 282829 286832 290839 294841 298838 302833 308822 310817 314812 323802 330792 338781 344771 346761 1.00 519269 519263 517258 512246 507235 501226 496222 493222 490225 490234 487238 481239 477238 475246 477252 478260 479266 479270 481274 484275 488274 493276 499278 505278 511275 517273 519269 1.00 336774 334770 328772 325775 322779 319782 315787 314790 314792 319790 324787 327785 331781 333778 336774 1.00 314802 311800 308801 305806 302809 300812 297816 296820 297826 301825 303822 304818 306813 308809 310807 314802 1.00 283808 282806 280804 279804 276803 274803 271803 271804 271807 272809 273809 276810 277811 279811 282811 283808 1.50 517268 516263 514257 509245 507240 504234 501229 498228 495228 493240 486244 483248 481253 484263 485268 491272 496275 502277 509273 514271 517268 2.00 515267 514261 513256 510249 505239 500233 497232 496238 495241 493243 487246 485248 483254 486263 491269 497273 502275 509270 515267 2.00 501252 501249 498246 497250 497251 500254 501252 3.00 510265 512261 511258 510255 509254 507254 507259 508262 510265 510265 3.00 502271 501266 498267 497269 500271 502271 3.00 493258 493253 492248 489248 486251 487255 487257 490260 493258 $$