594 FXUS04 KWBC 072154 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 453 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID NOV 08/0000 UTC THRU NOV 11/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... UPDATED...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BTWN THE PRELIM AND THE FINAL DAY1 QPF TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LITTLE NEW INFO WAS GAINED FM LATEST MODEL RUNS INCLDG THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z NAM. ...PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MODEST WLY UPSLOPE CONDS LEADING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE WA/OR COASTAL RANGES/CASCADES EWD INTO THE MTNS OF NRN ID/WRN MT..WITH SNOW IN THE HIER ELEVS. REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS..WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING ALONG THE COAST LATE SUN AS NEXT UPSTREAM FRONT APCHS THE REGION. OVERALL DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IS RATHER MINOR..THOUGH WENT WITH THE TREND OF NAM/GFS WHICH MAINTAIN A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL PLUME OF MSTR IN PORTIONS OF NRN OR/SRN WA..WHILE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING ON SUN THE GFS IS PROBABLY UNDERDONE NEAR THE SRN SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE. ...WRN GULF COAST... S/WV TROF PROGRESSING EWD ACRS NRN MEX WILL BEGIN TO TAP SOME VERY DEEP MSTR/RETURN FLOW AROUND LARGE WRN ATLC HIGH ON SUN RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THRU SRN TX AND EXTREME SRN LA. THE DEEP MSTR IS NOT VERY FAR OFFSHORE SO AT THIS POINT THE WILL TREND TOWARD A WETTER UKMET/00Z ECMWF SOLN ACRS S TX. GFS PROBABLY AFFECTED BY OFFSHORE FEEDBACK AND THUS IS DRIER INLAND. ELSEWHERE... SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF SHEARING S/WV TROF AND ASSOCD WEAK SFC WAVE LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY..WHERE MODELS GENLY INDICATE AMOUNTS .10 INCH OR LESS. STG MOIST ELY FLOW AROUND ATLC HIGH WILL TRIGGER SCTD SHWRS PRIMARILY ACRS THE FL KEYS. DAYS 2/3... ...NORTHWEST... A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THE PD...WITH A STRONG CDFNT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DIRECTED NEWD INTO VANCOUVER ISL AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA MAINLAND...THERE WILL BE A PD OF MDT RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE OR/WA COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES. HPC FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE ECMWF HERE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES... A WEAK SHRTWV TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SUN WILL DRIVE A SFC LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AT ITS DISPOSAL...BUT LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND ALSO ALONG THE CDFNT DIPPING DOWN ACROSS THE MID MS AND CTRL PLAINS ON DAY 2. AN AMPLIFICATION IN THE TROF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES INTO THE LWR LAKES/NORTHEAST...WHILE LINGERING OVER THE MID MS VLY...COULD RESULT IN SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT AMTS ON DAY 3. NAM SHOWS LESS PHASING HERE BETWEEN THE NRN/SRN STREAMS AND IN TURN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF ONE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS. ...GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES... UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPR TROF/LOW OVER NRN MEX MOVES TO THE E...BRINGING ENERGY...INCLUDING THAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA...TOWARD THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LADEN WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE STRONG LIFT AFFORDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL ENERGY AND RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MDT/HVY RAINS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT WILL TRANSLATE N AND E INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SRN MID ATL STATES WITH TIME. A SWATH OF 3-5 INCHES...EMBEDDED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. THE GFS/00Z ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BOTH IN TERMS OF MASS FIELDS AND MODEL QPF. THE NAM HOWEVER WAS A SLOW OUTLIER BOTH WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF AND THE NWD PROGRESSION OF IDA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH IDA...BUT GIVEN ITS POOR INITIALIZATION TOO FAR TO THE S AND THE EXPECTED INCREASING INFLUENCE THE UPR TROF SHOULD HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM...OPTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS SHOULD FAR OUTPACE THE TRACK OF THE SFC CTR. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING IDA. SULLIVAN/PEREIRA GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 09/00Z 0.01 496660 494656 491657 488657 485659 478666 473671 470680 468685 468690 471692 475693 477694 481693 487690 495684 497681 498675 497665 496660 0.01 523263 522256 521251 517239 515233 514226 514218 515214 518210 521209 526210 530210 530205 530190 530182 527174 525170 523167 516160 509151 503146 488130 480126 472123 462139 448150 445150 441153 444160 446165 447172 446187 442201 442208 440212 434217 430222 430225 435233 429236 425239 424242 423246 426251 429255 434257 452255 463256 468257 473260 481268 487276 498289 502293 507294 513290 0.01 480874 479869 475867 470869 467872 463883 459891 454896 451899 445902 443905 441910 440917 440930 440938 440946 441958 439966 439971 440979 441983 444987 449986 453984 456980 460970 462964 464958 466946 470935 477911 478901 479888 480874 0.01 467017 467008 466003 463003 460005 457009 455014 455019 452027 451031 450035 452039 456041 460039 462034 464030 466021 467017 0.01 461169 460166 457167 457168 457170 460170 461169 0.01 453114 452109 448105 444102 438100 435099 430096 429096 430100 431104 430108 432112 435114 438114 441117 443120 446121 450117 453114 0.01 448076 447075 445072 444071 441071 441072 441074 442076 444078 447077 448076 0.01 334977 334972 332968 328964 321960 314958 311958 308955 309950 309944 307939 305933 305925 304920 302917 298911 293906 288903 281901 274901 266903 261906 256911 248922 242934 237946 239955 241962 245977 242991 246996 251000 256003 265005 280004 295001 302998 310996 324989 331985 332982 334977 334977 0.01 250790 248783 243781 237785 235790 234800 233805 234812 234822 234829 237835 245842 250843 253839 255834 255826 253814 251807 249800 250790 0.01 287025 288018 286014 284012 281013 276016 273019 271023 271026 270032 272035 277037 282035 285031 286028 287025 0.25 517263 517256 515248 511236 505224 503218 500214 491205 484203 480204 470210 460211 440218 439222 443226 445228 445232 441235 435243 435247 437249 443251 453248 465248 473250 478253 484259 490268 498278 502282 507282 511277 513271 517263 0.25 509184 509179 505174 503169 499164 490159 487156 482155 476155 470153 467155 466157 467160 469166 472170 478171 483173 486175 492178 498178 504178 509184 0.25 490144 489139 486137 483136 480135 479133 478133 476133 477136 478137 480138 483140 485143 486143 488147 490144 0.25 311977 307974 299972 293969 288962 279948 271937 269934 265932 258936 253942 249948 249952 250957 253964 258969 264974 269977 276979 282983 289985 299985 304984 309982 311977 0.25 248819 247813 246807 244802 240799 239802 238807 238811 237815 238820 239826 242831 245832 248832 249828 248822 248819 0.50 511260 513256 512254 510255 510260 511261 511260 0.50 506277 508274 508269 507265 504265 501261 497255 494250 492248 489247 488253 490258 492264 495268 499274 502278 506277 0.50 503238 503231 502224 499219 496216 491211 488210 482209 479210 476214 476216 481220 487222 490225 493230 497235 499238 503238 0.50 493171 492170 491166 490166 487164 484164 481161 481160 479159 476158 474159 473160 472163 475165 478166 481166 484166 485169 487171 489172 492171 493171 0.50 470240 470236 465231 463229 465226 469222 471219 470216 467216 461215 458216 452216 449218 444219 445224 450227 453226 457227 456231 450232 446234 443237 439243 441245 444245 447245 456244 466243 470240 0.50 282969 282964 279961 276959 272957 269954 266951 263949 258951 256955 258960 261963 264965 268967 271968 276970 280970 282969 0.50 246823 246820 245817 245814 244811 241809 240813 240814 240816 240819 241822 242825 243827 244828 246826 246825 246823 1.00 462238 461237 458236 455235 457238 460238 462238 24HR QP VT 10/00Z 0.01 499714 497706 494698 488692 480690 476694 473705 471716 470727 468738 465749 462757 457766 455769 451772 447774 443781 440791 437800 435808 432821 429828 426837 424841 422845 417852 412862 406880 402889 398895 392904 388909 381915 374920 369926 364933 362938 361944 362952 363962 360968 352984 349989 346995 345000 347004 352006 359008 365014 370014 375013 382008 387003 393995 397986 399975 403968 408961 411953 421935 425928 434924 437922 442917 449915 454918 457921 459927 461934 463939 467946 473947 478942 483934 485928 487921 489911 489897 489887 490879 492874 496866 500855 502845 503836 503831 502822 500816 497808 498800 499791 501778 502766 502753 502742 502734 501726 499714 0.01 526252 518235 512221 510217 509213 509207 519220 521222 526223 531222 536217 538210 538204 537196 538191 531173 529168 525164 520158 515155 511156 510158 508160 504160 501160 497161 494162 492161 490157 490151 494149 495148 492144 488139 482134 476131 473132 473137 476140 481141 483142 485147 485152 480152 476150 473150 471147 468144 465144 463150 463157 464161 466165 469166 475167 478172 483178 487183 493189 493194 490194 485196 480199 478199 474202 470205 462205 456207 450212 445213 438217 432218 428219 423221 423226 420229 417229 414227 412223 411221 408221 405226 399229 393235 388238 385242 386250 389254 396259 404261 413264 417271 429280 438284 445286 458284 466284 472285 477288 481294 486297 490299 497300 511294 0.01 428060 424055 421052 421049 421043 419037 418033 415030 400028 394031 389038 385039 383039 380042 379044 375046 372047 370050 372055 375055 379055 382057 386064 387072 387078 388083 392087 396087 398086 403079 410076 412076 415072 419072 422072 424068 427064 428060 0.01 359866 357855 354847 349842 343840 334843 328844 323843 317839 312836 306833 294831 281829 270830 266828 263826 259821 257815 258809 257796 253795 246797 241802 238808 235812 235818 237834 236839 237848 239857 242865 247878 253892 257901 258905 259913 258919 254925 251929 244933 241937 239943 238949 237957 234962 233968 235973 240978 245980 251981 254985 258991 262991 265990 268986 269982 273982 283986 287985 288981 288971 292967 297963 311958 316953 321949 328938 335926 338921 342916 349904 355892 358885 359878 359866 0.01 306812 306809 304807 303806 301804 300804 297803 294803 292805 292806 292808 293809 294810 297813 300815 301815 304815 306813 306812 0.01 286804 284801 281799 277797 273796 269797 263798 261799 260802 263806 266806 271807 274809 277811 282812 286807 286804 0.25 530209 531204 531200 531199 530194 529191 528189 526185 525183 524181 521180 518181 517181 515185 515190 517194 519196 519197 522201 522202 524205 526208 527209 530210 530209 0.25 522265 521254 519248 516243 514238 512230 508225 503215 499208 494207 485211 479212 476216 475219 472224 463225 454231 449231 444233 435238 426239 419241 416244 416248 417250 420253 431256 437258 443261 452267 478277 503287 511287 516281 0.25 490756 489752 488751 485752 483756 483757 481760 480763 479766 479768 478772 478774 478778 480782 481783 484784 486783 487782 489777 489776 489771 490769 490766 490761 490760 490756 0.25 483799 481797 479799 476801 476803 477807 478807 481808 482804 483801 483799 0.25 344892 345886 344880 342875 338874 323876 316874 310872 306868 301861 297855 292849 287846 280844 273843 269845 266847 263853 262861 266877 269897 271907 270913 265928 260940 257947 256955 259959 261960 269960 286956 292954 301951 312942 317937 322932 330920 338908 342900 344892 344892 0.25 247819 247816 246814 245814 243814 242815 241818 241819 242822 242824 244827 244828 247826 247822 247820 247819 0.50 518273 519264 520259 518253 516247 511237 509230 505225 499216 496214 493215 490218 488220 488224 489229 490234 488234 483236 481235 477231 467233 458233 449237 441239 433244 432246 438248 447254 451258 457261 465265 470269 476271 487276 493278 498281 503283 509284 513282 515279 518273 0.50 339894 338884 336881 334880 320882 314881 309878 301871 293861 289856 285854 279852 275854 272858 271864 272879 275895 276904 276910 275917 273924 268933 267940 268945 271949 277951 283952 291951 298948 303945 311937 320928 327918 334908 337902 339897 339894 1.00 516267 516260 514252 508238 501228 498223 494224 493229 494235 493240 487238 482241 478238 475236 472236 469240 468244 469247 473252 477258 480263 487269 491272 498276 505278 510278 512276 515272 516267 1.00 333895 331890 328888 320888 310886 304880 297876 290873 285876 284880 282887 282893 282899 283909 282918 279928 274934 272939 273941 276945 279946 288947 293946 298944 303940 315925 327911 331904 333895 1.50 513266 514261 513256 510248 506239 500233 499230 497229 495231 496237 497241 496246 493244 487241 482244 481250 482254 487261 492267 496270 500272 507273 513268 513266 1.50 329900 326894 320892 314890 308887 298881 294881 290883 286889 285895 287905 287911 286919 284926 282931 282936 283940 289942 295941 300937 307928 312923 317918 326908 329900 2.00 509260 510255 509253 507246 505242 502238 500236 498236 500242 501247 498250 497250 492246 489244 486245 485250 487255 490260 492263 498266 501264 504265 505263 509260 2.00 325901 325897 323896 318894 309891 299886 295886 291888 288893 289901 290908 289914 287927 287932 289937 296936 299933 306923 314917 318913 322909 325901 3.00 494254 494253 491252 491253 494254 494254 3.00 318900 314897 310896 307895 303894 299892 295892 292895 292900 293906 295912 297916 300917 302915 307913 313911 315907 316904 318900 4.00 306906 306903 306900 305899 302898 300898 299897 296898 296899 296902 297905 300908 301908 304908 306906 306906 24HR QP VT 11/00Z 0.01 483667 479656 476652 472652 469654 468657 466662 464661 462655 458651 453649 448651 444656 442663 436701 431718 430723 427730 425735 422738 410750 399766 390780 383795 377811 374819 371828 367842 363852 361855 359849 363835 370821 372811 373809 374804 374799 373793 372786 371781 369775 367770 365765 363756 362747 362743 359738 357737 353736 346738 338745 330750 325754 320760 312768 305774 300787 297793 292799 286805 278809 275811 271810 274808 278807 280803 278800 272797 266795 259796 254797 251796 247795 244798 244804 245812 244820 245825 247828 253833 253837 251840 247845 245849 244855 245859 248866 252872 256880 259884 262886 267886 274886 277888 280892 284902 283906 280909 277915 275922 274930 273936 275940 281943 285943 289941 317925 328917 340906 345901 349894 356881 367869 373860 374857 379853 384849 386850 386856 385864 381874 375890 368903 359918 355926 352930 351936 350939 349944 350950 353951 358950 364947 368945 368950 365958 361965 356971 351975 346982 343989 338994 333002 332008 335011 340010 349006 359998 364991 368984 371979 376973 381966 387959 392953 396948 399944 402940 406934 414927 419920 424911 428903 431896 434886 435865 436857 436853 438848 441839 443828 444819 446810 448807 453802 459797 465786 469776 473768 476759 481741 483729 483717 482703 480690 480684 482678 483667 0.01 532220 535213 535206 536198 535191 528172 526168 522164 520162 517155 510151 506145 479129 473130 471133 471139 473142 478143 482147 479148 477148 473146 471142 464139 458140 452144 447146 444146 439147 436152 437158 440161 444166 450197 460187 466182 468179 471181 479182 486188 490193 485196 480197 477198 473200 470202 468205 464205 459203 454209 447212 439211 431212 428212 425214 419221 414216 409216 407217 401220 400225 392227 390228 387233 389239 392243 399249 416255 424256 432256 436257 439255 447255 464254 472256 481262 485268 489275 497292 503295 508293 512288 515282 518273 520267 520260 519249 517240 514230 510219 506211 507208 510207 515214 519219 526222 529223 532220 0.01 489152 488152 485151 484152 485152 488153 489152 0.25 529204 528196 527188 522177 519174 514171 508164 502163 499164 493165 487164 484167 482169 483173 486177 491180 497186 500188 502189 508190 514194 516197 523207 525207 527207 529204 0.25 506277 506272 503267 498260 497250 506252 508250 509247 509239 509234 507228 503219 497209 491204 482204 475208 468214 460212 456214 452218 451221 453224 456229 449238 450243 454246 463247 472248 477249 482252 496263 499275 502278 505279 506277 0.25 449728 448721 446719 443721 439724 437728 438735 434740 431748 429758 428769 427780 424791 423800 423810 422817 421822 418831 416842 414851 414862 413869 412874 409877 403879 400882 398886 395896 396904 396908 394917 395923 398925 400924 403920 407911 407905 407900 411892 414882 418872 423864 426856 429845 430834 430823 432812 433802 436791 446749 447737 449728 0.25 429244 430240 428237 425237 422238 419237 416236 414239 415242 418244 421245 424245 427244 429244 0.25 365800 364795 362788 358780 355777 351776 341775 334777 330784 320799 314805 307810 291821 284826 276831 269835 264842 260848 258856 259865 264873 270877 276880 284882 289891 293898 298902 304907 312909 323908 331903 336898 342889 346882 349874 351865 353854 354846 357837 362820 365809 365800 0.50 504239 503231 501224 499219 497215 491212 485210 483209 479212 481219 484222 486223 490224 492230 494235 499240 502241 504239 0.50 480239 479235 479234 478234 476234 473237 472239 470237 469236 467234 464232 462233 461234 458236 460240 463241 466242 469241 472241 475242 478242 480239 0.50 465221 463219 460219 457219 457220 460223 462224 465221 0.50 361806 361801 359795 354790 342784 338786 334789 331795 324808 320814 313819 304822 295826 290831 286836 280841 275846 266856 265861 265867 267869 273873 278875 285878 287879 289885 292894 296898 302901 308904 315905 323903 330899 335894 339887 341880 346865 350850 352843 356834 359821 361812 361806 1.00 357812 354804 350800 346797 341798 337799 323821 316829 310834 304837 297840 293844 286855 282860 282865 286869 292871 296874 297877 296885 297890 306897 310898 319898 326894 330891 334886 336881 344856 349844 354831 357821 357812 1.50 355816 353810 351808 348805 342805 337809 336813 332821 327828 321835 315843 308849 307858 303865 304887 306890 309892 315894 320892 327886 332878 336870 340861 347844 351836 354826 355819 355816 2.00 353821 351815 349814 347812 341812 334827 322840 318845 316848 315853 315861 314864 310868 308875 310885 311889 315890 320888 324884 331872 339858 347842 352829 353821 3.00 349826 347822 342825 338831 331839 326846 323854 322860 323864 324868 327866 333859 339852 344843 348834 349826 3.00 322871 321870 319872 318872 316874 316877 318879 318880 321879 321878 321875 322872 322871 $$