045 WTNT41 KNHC 071500 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF HOOKING BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/8. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF ALL MOVE THE CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW IT REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD...BUT TURNS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY EASTWARD BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...WHILE NOT IDEAL...APPEAR CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. ONCE IDA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND WATERS BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING...HOWEVER THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND AN EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS WEAKENING THAN TYPICAL...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 84.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 86.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 88.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 86.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE 575 WTNT31 KNHC 071752 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 100 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRONGER... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...165 KM MAINLY NORTH FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION... LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM EST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE 503 WTNT80 EGRR 071800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.11.2009 TROPICAL STORM IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 84.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112009 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.11.2009 17.4N 84.5W WEAK 00UTC 08.11.2009 18.4N 84.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.11.2009 20.1N 85.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.11.2009 21.9N 87.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.11.2009 24.5N 89.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.11.2009 26.7N 89.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.11.2009 28.0N 88.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.11.2009 29.1N 87.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.11.2009 EXTRA TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071735 383 WTNT21 KNHC 072048 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 84.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 84.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 85.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 87.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.3N 88.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...175NE 90SE 45SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.5N 87.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 45SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N 86.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI 832 WTNT31 KNHC 072049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 400 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 ...IDA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...STILL MOVING NORTHWARD... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195 MILES...320 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION... LOCATION...18.9N 84.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM EST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI 007 WTNT41 KNHC 072056 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 400 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE NORTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES...WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 68 KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 60 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT. CIRRUS ELEMENTS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... SUGGESTING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM TO INHIBIT SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. IDA WILL BE TRAVERSING THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS IDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. AFTER IDA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND WATERS BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STEADY WEAKENING. IDA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED TODAY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION AND HEADING. THEREAFTER...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 12Z GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NEW TRACK NOW SHOWS A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY 120 HOURS...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT PROVIDE A 5-DAY POSITION FOR THIS REASON. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 18.9N 84.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 84.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 85.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.8N 87.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 26.3N 88.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 29.5N 87.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.5N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN