858 WTNT24 KNHC 130830 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 39.3W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 39.3W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 40.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.7N 41.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 42.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 39.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH 412 WTNT34 KNHC 130831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NANA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 500 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 ...NANA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1015 MILES...1635 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION... AND NANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...16.6 N...39.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH 313 WTNT44 KNHC 130833 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 500 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 NANA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2332 UTC MEASURED 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT OVERPASS...NANA MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...I WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR NOW. THE GLOBAL MODEL'S 200 MB WIND FORECASTS SHOWS 25-30 KT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT THE SHEAR TO LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. NANA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6. NANA OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WHILE SITUATED TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM TRACK...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THAT GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 16.6N 39.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 40.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 17.7N 41.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 42.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH 901 WTNT25 KNHC 131440 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 70.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA 303 WTNT35 KNHC 131440 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CURACAO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...3 KM/HR. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. THIS IS A LARGE DEPRESSION AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA 465 WTNT45 KNHC 131441 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY...I WOULD WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO START ADVISORIES...BUT IN THIS CASE...THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE DEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND VECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR A DAY OR TWO...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID- LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.8N 69.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.1N 70.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 15.5N 70.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 69.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 67.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 63.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 24.0N 59.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA 617 WTNT34 KNHC 131443 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 ...NANA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1050 MILES...1685 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NANA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...39.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN 642 WTNT24 KNHC 131443 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 39.8W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 39.8W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 39.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.1N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.6N 41.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 43.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 39.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN 111 WTNT44 KNHC 131444 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 AS EXPECTED...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON NANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT DOWNGRADING NANA TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 6 KT. NANA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 16.8N 39.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.1N 40.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 17.6N 41.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN 837 WTNT80 EGRR 131644 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 69.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152008 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2008 15.5N 69.5W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2008 14.5N 70.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2008 14.1N 69.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.10.2008 14.8N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.10.2008 15.5N 68.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2008 16.6N 67.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2008 17.8N 66.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2008 19.2N 64.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2008 20.9N 63.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2008 22.4N 62.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2008 24.2N 61.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2008 26.5N 60.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2008 30.1N 58.3W EXTRATROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 39.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142008 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2008 16.3N 39.5W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2008 17.3N 40.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2008 17.9N 42.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2008 18.9N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131644