691 WTPN31 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 7.5N 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 7.9N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 8.5N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.2N 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.1N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 12.4N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 14.9N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.7N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 147.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED AND SUBSIDED, THE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 221539Z AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A HOOK FEATURE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS MIGRATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS HAS REDUCED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ALLOWING TD 26W TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THIS MARGINAL GAIN WAS OFFSET BY THE REDUCED OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE STEERING MECHANISM IS PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS - LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW - WILL ENHANCE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PEAKING AS A STRONG TYPHOON BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//