El Niño Research and Predictions

It is instructive to check past predictions against what actually happened to see how well the various models do. Our El Niño forecast model (the Scripps/MPI model) tends to do especially well at predicting La Niñas (cold events). The following figure shows our prediction of tropical sea surface temperature anomaly made in March 1998 compared to another respected forecast model, and showing what actually happened:

 



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