Robinson, A. R., H. G. Arango, A. Warn-Varnas, W. G. Leslie, A. J. Miller, P. J. Haley and C. J. Lozano, 1996:

Real-time regional forecasting

In: Modern Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, ed., Elsevier Science, B.V., 377-410.

Abstract. An observational network, dynamical models and data assimilation schemes are the three components of a ocean prediction system. Its configuration for a regional real-time forecasting system proceeds in three phases, based on our previous knowledge and experience of the area. In the initial (exploratory) phase, identification of dominant scales (synoptic, mesoscale and sub-mesoscale), processes and interactions is ob tained. In the intermediate (dynamical) phase, a clear resolution of the important dynamics and events must be reflected in the nowcasts and forecasts. The third phase is designed to validate the predictive capability of the forecasts. At each stage, high quality data sets are required. To carry out this program Observing System Simulation Experiments are carried out prior to the cruises. Initializations are obtained by melding feature models, previous data driven simulations and observations. Nowcasts and forecasts are generated via sequential assimilation combining ship acquired and remote data---as they become available. Nested models and nested observations are employed for adequate resolution. The approach is illustrated with recent real-time experiences at sea in the Iceland-Faeroe frontal region, the Straits of Sicily and the Eastern Mediterranean basin.

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