158 FXUS06 KWBC 232004 PMDMRD PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD 300 PM EST MON NOVEMBER 23 2009 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2009 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE RIDGING IS INDICATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND GENERALLY REFLECT THE SAME FEATURES AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS RELATIVELY WEAK ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART FEATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED PRIMARILY ON BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS INDICATED BY THE MANUAL BLEND. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOST OF ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXIST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION TO NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE EASTERN CONUS FORECAST TROUGH AND ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN COAST AND PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE FORECAST PACIFIC TROUGH. GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES BUT DIFFERENCES IN SOME OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, NAEFS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE AVAILABLE MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2009 THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THOUGH MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY ADDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE WEEK-2 FORECAST. SOME OF THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE MJO, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE DEPICTS REDGING FOR THE PERIOD. THIS MJO ACTIVITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH CONFLICTS WITH THE FORECAST RIDGING. THE AREA DEPICTING ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN OF THIS TIME. TODAYS BLEND CHART IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD INDICATING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. GREATER CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CONUS BENEATH THE TROUGH, WHILE GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MOST OF ALASKA AND PART OF CALIFORNIA UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COASTS DUE TO POTENTIAL MJO INFLUENCES. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST STATES, AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 17 NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19741108 - 19621201 - 19771105 - 19991205 - 19511202 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19771102 - 19841125 - 19771107 - 19621130 - 19751108 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2009 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2009 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$