290 
FXUS66 KMTR 232240
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
240 PM PST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PST MONDAY...THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
STATE OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS
INDICATING OFFSHORE FLOW WITHIN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THESE COMBINED FEATURES RESULTED IN A PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING 3 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER AROUND THE AREA. KSTS
EXPERIENCED THE GREATEST WARM UP OF 10 DEGREES PUSHING ITS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE TO A NEAR NORMAL 66 DEGREES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...
RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WILL MIGRATE SLIGHTLY
EAST OVER THE CWA TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST RESULTING IN OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREE TOMORROW TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FROM MONTEREY NORTH TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF
MONTEREY. THESE PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY.

THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ON MOVING A TROUGH INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IT WILL SLIDE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO
THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND FORECASTED TEMPERATURES MAYBE A LITTLE
ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE KEY TO GETTING THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CORRECT. CURRENTLY THE 1800 UTC GFS SHIFTS THE WINDS WEST...COOL
ONSHORE FLOW...BY 0000 UTC FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AS
EARLY AS 0600 UTC FRIDAY QUICKLY COOLING OFF THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER RESULT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHBAY AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SKC TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO WIND CONCERNS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SKC.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SKC TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDY...SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH BAR


$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: WJK

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO