581 WTPH20 RPMM 231800 TTT WARNING 03 AT 1800 23 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 241800 ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR EAST AT 251800 ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 261800 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= 512 WTPH20 RPMM 232000 FFBB 23200 98558 59653 00030 05044 08057 10057 13070 15071 18076 21070 23071 25065 27066 29061 32053 00030 40000 /999/= 570 WTPH20 RPMM 232100 FFBB 23210 98558 59653 00024 06038 09046 12049 15059 18075 27070 23073 25067 27068 29063 32060 00024 40000 /999/= 065 WTPQ31 PGUM 232126 TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009 800 AM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...TROPICAL STORM NIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK 250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT 260 MILES WEST OF ULUL 130 MILES NORTHWEST OF SATAWAL 95 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 430 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN 535 MILES EAST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ SIMPSON 825 WTPQ20 RJTD 232100 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0922 NIDA (0922) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 09.0N 146.0E POOR MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 120NM NORTH 70NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 09.8N 142.7E 70NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT GUST 065KT 45HF 251800UTC 11.9N 140.9E 110NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 69HF 261800UTC 14.6N 139.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT GUST 085KT = 163 WTXS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 9.1S 52.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 52.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.5S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 9.9S 51.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 10.3S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 10.7S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 11.6S 46.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 12.9S 44.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.4S 42.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER, A 231758Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 230523Z ASCAT IMAGE (25-KM) SHOWING 40-45 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THEN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE STR STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN POLEWARD OVER WATER. NOGAPS IS THE OUTLIER AND TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD LATER, AS IT TRACKS OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// 574 WTXS51 PGTW 232100 WARNING ATCP MIL 02S SIO 091123211251 2009112318 02S BONGANI 002 01 240 06 SATL 060 T000 091S 0527E 045 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD T012 095S 0520E 045 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD T024 099S 0513E 050 R034 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD T036 103S 0505E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD T048 107S 0494E 065 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD T072 116S 0465E 075 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD T096 129S 0442E 065 T120 144S 0423E 055 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 9.1S 52.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 52.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.5S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 9.9S 51.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 10.3S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 10.7S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 11.6S 46.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 12.9S 44.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.4S 42.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER, A 231758Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 230523Z ASCAT IMAGE (25-KM) SHOWING 40-45 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THEN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE STR STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN POLEWARD OVER WATER. NOGAPS IS THE OUTLIER AND TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD LATER, AS IT TRACKS OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// 0209112018 106S 614E 20 0209112100 105S 610E 20 0209112106 101S 601E 20 0209112112 99S 594E 20 0209112118 98S 586E 20 0209112200 97S 577E 25 0209112206 92S 564E 30 0209112212 87S 555E 30 0209112218 85S 547E 30 0209112300 85S 542E 30 0209112306 86S 536E 40 0209112312 88S 532E 45 0209112318 91S 527E 45