670 WTPN31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 8.7N 146.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 146.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 9.5N 144.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.5N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 11.5N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 12.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 14.9N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.8N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 145.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 26W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 23/1621Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER- LOW NEAR 25N 165E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO STAIR-STEP AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. ECMWF FIELDS WERE ALSO USED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 784 WTPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 126.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 126.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 10.0N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 9.7N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 9.2N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 8.9N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 9.1N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 9.8N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 10.9N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 125.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 231745Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATED A DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC USING LOWER RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS (PGTW) BASED ON THE WEAK BANDING. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WITHIN 600NM OF TS 26W AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH TS 26W, WHICH WILL DRIVE A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED TRACK TOWARD TS 26W. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER NEAR TAU 48 AND IS FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL TS STRENGTH UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//