031 FXUS66 KLOX 140417 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 800 PM PST MON FEB 13 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY COLD LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A SHORT BREAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITH BREEZY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A HIGH WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION THURSDAY AND ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LAUNCH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW MAY WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...BEEN A BUSY SHIFT DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF SLO COUNTY MOVING SOUTH TOWARD POINT CONCEPTION. LATEST 00Z SOUNDING OUT OF VANDENBERG AFB INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE AT THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF POINT CONCEPTION. 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -28 TO -30 CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH AS LIFTED INDEX AND K INDEX ARE MARGINALLY STABLE...THE COMBINATION OF THESE COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME DECENT PVA TIMED WELL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KICK OFF SOME HIT AND MISS SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE MEAGER...HOWEVER IF A THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR TODAY WERE ABOUT AS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION RECORDING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES. MANY AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. IN REGARDS TO SNOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE TEJON PASS NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR...BUT BY THE LOOKS OF RADAR...MORE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF LA AND VTU COUNTIES AS WELL BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN REGARDS TO WINDS... WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT LAX AS WELL AS OXNARD AND CAMARILLO AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL VENTURA COUNTY VALLEY INCLUDING THOUSAND OAKS...WESTLAKE VILLAGE AND NEWBURY PARK AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LA/VTU AND SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN FOR TUESDAY...BUT STILL GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE SOUTH COAST. WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH SOME AND LOOK CLOSELY TO EXPIRE WIND ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LVL LOW WILL PUSH INTO ARIZONA GIVING OUR REGION A NICE BUT SHORT LIVED BREAK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE. PREVIOUS SHIFT SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED WED THROUGH MONDAY WELL. ...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BARREL DOWN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE UNFORTUNATELY IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE LOW HAS YET TO PEEL OFF THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY IMPACTING ALASKA. THE OVERALL TREND HOWEVER IS TOWARD A DRIER MORE INSIDE TRACKING SOLUTION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT TO WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. IN FACT..THE CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW...TRENDED THE POPS DOWN A SMIDGE TO REFLECT THE INCREASING CHANCE OF A MORE OVER-LAND TRACK. EVEN IF PRECIP HAPPENS...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STARVED FOR MOISTURE...AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES THROUGH...THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SURFACE OF THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...WIND ADVISORIES LOOK POSSIBLE OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SPIKE TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO CONTINUE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW...FOR A PLEASANT KICK-OFF TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ITS TARGETS ON CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK SET TO COOL...OTHER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS THING...AND THE FULL PEANUT BUTTER SPREAD OF THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES ONLY SUPPORTS THAT UNCERTAINTY. AS A RESULT...WILL RIDE CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE COMES ALONG. && .AVIATION...13/2350Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KPRB...KSMX...KSBP...KWJF...AND KPMD. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSBA AFTER SUNDOWN. EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY. KPRB MAY SEE SOME BR LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF -TSRA AT KPRB...KWJF...KPMD THROUGH 06Z. KLAX...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 04Z...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 08Z. MODERATE LLWS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WINDS. KBUR...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 03Z...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z...THEN SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE. WEAK LLWS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WINDS. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX). GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX). HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...KAPLAN/KITTELL AVIATION...KITTELL SYNOPSIS...SETO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES