542 WTPA21 PHFO 192037 TCMCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011 2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 145.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 145.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 145.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 147.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 149.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 151.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 145.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA 360 WTPA31 PHFO 192038 TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011 ...FERNANDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 145.8W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. FERNANDA...OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FERNANDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA 682 WTPA41 PHFO 192040 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011 INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY CLEARLY SHOWED THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...OF FERNANDA AND VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ABOUT 80 NM FROM THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 155W CONTINUES TO APPLY SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATING SHEAR VALUES OF 16 KTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC AND SAB WERE 35 KT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DETERIORATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT THUS MAKING FERNANDA A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FERNANDA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 0800 UTC. FURTHERMORE...THE DETERIORATING CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA IS AND WILL REMAIN OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C TO 26C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THUS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. WITH FERNANDA NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ITS MOTION HAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING LIFE CYCLE OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.4N 145.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.7N 147.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 16.0N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 16.0N 151.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KODAMA