945 WTNT22 KNHC 292038 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 2100 UTC TUE MAY 29 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 82.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 82.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 82.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.8N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.2N 77.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 37.5N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 82.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA 834 WTNT32 KNHC 292039 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...SLOW-MOVING BERYL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 82.5W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM N OF WAYCROSS GEORGIA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CENTER OF BERYL CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BACK OVER ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT BERYL COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE COASTLINE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...ISOLATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...IN EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA 545 WTNT42 KNHC 292039 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE DAY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WITHIN RAINBANDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BEYOND 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY THAT BERYL WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 48 HOURS...AND LATER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 055 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 31.8N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 32.8N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 34.2N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 37.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA