Streamflow and Precipitation Forecasts for the
Merced River at Happy Isles
and
East Fork of the Carson River at Markleeville
The figure (below) shows the latest streamflow and precipitation
forecast for the Merced River at Happy Isles.
A watershed
model of the Merced River basin above Happy Isles was developed by Mike
Dettinger (USGS and Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography).
This model is forced by the Medium Range Weather Forecasts (MRF) from the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Ten MRF forecasts
are made every day at 00Z. Each forecast is run for 15 days. From these
forecasts, ensemble daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation
are used to force the Merced River model. For more information about this
model go to: http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~dettinge/nyears/prms_model.html.
For more information about forecast spring runoff pulses from the Sierra
Nevada go to: http://water.wr.usgs.gov/forecast/prediction.html.
The top panel of the figure shows the discharge in cubic feet per second
as observed (solid black line), as simulated from observations (solid blue
line) and as forecast by the basin model using MRF forecasts (dashed red
lines with open red circles indicating unique forecasts begun on the date
shown).
The lower panel of the figure shows the precipitation from November
1, 1998, with the observed precipitation in black and the latest MRF forecast
precipitation in red.
1998-99 Observed and Simulated Streamflows and
Precipitation for the Merced River at Happy Isles
This figure (left) shows the observed and simulated streamflow and observed
precipitation for the Merced River at Happy Isles from December 1, 1997,
through present.
The top panel of the figure shows the discharge in cubic meters per
second as observed (solid blue line) and as simulated from observations
(solid black line).
The lower panel of the figure shows the observed precipitation in blue.
Comparison of Model and Observations
The figures below compare observed and forecast 850mb temperature
and precipitation at a model grid point for the Merced River (40 degrees
North latitude and 120 degrees West longitude).
