Ito, S.-I., A. J. Miller, K. Drinkwater, K. M. Brander, J. W. Hurrell, Y. Yamanaka, J. E. Overland and S. Sundby, 2008:
Ocean ecosystem responses to future global change scenarios: A way forward.
In: Global Change and Marine Ecosystems,
M. Barange, J. Field, R. Harris, E. Hofmann, I. Perry and F. Werner, Eds.,
sub judice.
Abstract.
The atmospheric general circulation has been observed by the global meteorological network that was initiated and developed over the past half-century. For example, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was established in 1951. The development of a similar type of observational network for the ocean was delayed because of the difficulty of accessing the ocean compared with the atmosphere. However, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) was started in 1990 and global hydrographic observations to the seafloor were collected over its 12-year run. Overlapping with WOCE, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 including the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). This observational network has provided us with a global view of climate change of the earth system, which has improved our understanding tremendously. As stated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), .Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.. Moreover, it is with very high confidence that the average net effect of human activities since 1750 can be attributed as one of the factors of global warming. The IPCC-AR4 also cautioned that further warming and changes in the global climate system will very likely emerge during the 21st century.
It is inevitable that these climate changes will induce many ecosystem changes during the 21st century. During GLOBEC, our understanding of ecosystem structures and dynamics has improved greatly (see Sections 1 and 2) and many ecosystem modeling approaches have been developed (see Chapter 7). These GLOBEC accomplishments have also contributed to more confident predictions of oceanic ecosystem responses during the 21st century.
This chapter summarizes the current state-of-the-art in predicting ocean ecosystem responses to future global change scenarios, addresses the limitations and uncertainties of these predictions, and identifies future challenges.
Preprint (pdf)