Pullen, J., R. Allard, H. Seo, A. J. Miller, S. Chen, L. P. Pezzi, P. Chu and T. Smith, 2017:

Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasting at short and medium time scales

In: The Science of Ocean Prediction, The Sea, Volume 17, N. Pinardi, P. Lermusiaux and K. Brink, eds., sub judice

Abstract. This chapter has overviewed multiple ways in which coupled forecasting improves the predictive skill of both retrospective and operational simulations. Coupled air/sea modeling advances have relied on a variety of different field campaigns over the past decade in order refine and validate coupled modeling systems. These include Coupled Boundary Layers Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST, 2001-2003), Adriatic Circulation Experiment (ACE, 2002-2003), Ligurian Sea Air-Sea Interaction Experiment (LASIE07, 2007), VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study (VOCALS, 2008), Philippine Straits Dynamics Experiment (PhilEx, 2007-2009), and CYNDY/DYNAMO (2011- 2012).
Short time scale forecasting clearly benefits from including highly resolved physical process that currently require regional coupled models to properly implement. Future increases in computational efficiency will allow ever more finely resolved grids and ever more complicated representations of physical processes in these models, potentially extending to global grids. Carefully designed sensitivity studies and skill assessments, with accompanying observational verification, need to support these types of simulations and forecasts in order to verify that the mechanisms leading to skillful predictions are correctly represented in the models. Such studies and assessments will also facilitate emerging advances in data assimilation and their incorporation and validation in coupled air/sea prediction systems.

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