Robinson, A. R., H. G. Arango, A. Warn-Varnas, W. G. Leslie, A. J. Miller, P. J. Haley and C. J. Lozano, 1996:
In: Modern Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling,
P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, ed., Elsevier
Science, B.V., 377-410.
An observational network, dynamical models and
data assimilation schemes are the three components of a ocean
prediction system. Its configuration for
a regional real-time forecasting system proceeds in
three phases, based on our previous knowledge and experience of the area.
In the initial (exploratory) phase, identification of dominant
scales (synoptic, mesoscale and sub-mesoscale), processes and interactions is ob
In the intermediate (dynamical)
phase, a clear resolution of the important dynamics and events must
be reflected in the nowcasts and forecasts. The third phase is designed
to validate the predictive capability of the forecasts. At each
stage, high quality data sets are required. To carry out this
program Observing System Simulation Experiments
are carried out prior to the cruises. Initializations
are obtained by melding feature models,
previous data driven simulations and observations. Nowcasts and
forecasts are generated via sequential
assimilation combining ship acquired and
remote data---as they become available.
Nested models and nested observations are employed for adequate resolution.
The approach is illustrated with recent real-time experiences at sea in
the Iceland-Faeroe frontal region, the Straits of Sicily and the
Eastern Mediterranean basin.