Miller, A. J. and J. O. Roads, 1990:
A simplified coupled model of extended-range predictability
Journal of Climate,
3, 523-542.
Abstract.
A simplified coupled atmosphere-ocean model is used to explore the influence of evolving midlatitude sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies on the theoretical extended-range predictability of the atmospheric wintertime circulation in
the Northern Hemisphere. After approximately two weeks, SST anomalies begin to significantly influence the overlying
atmospheric flow, compared to flow over the climatological SST field. If the evolving sea surface temperature field is
specified from model "observed" flows, then predictions of atmospheric time-averaged flow, for one month and longer
averages, are significantly enhanced over predictions based on the atmospheric model with climatological SST. Predictions
using the coupled model, however, are not significantly different from predictions using the atmospheric model with
persistent SST anomalies, because SST anomalies are forced increasingly erroneously by atmospheric variables that
rapidly lose their predictability.
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