Upper air pattern is El Nino-look-a-like with high latitude blocking over Alaska and Northwest Canada and below normal heights over southern Canada and much of the CONUS. Model mean predictions through next week depict a persistent southern stream flow across the Pacific 20 - 35 North Latitude and through the southern CONUS. Models show pretty decent upper level lows bringing fairly widespread precip with light to moderate totals in the Golden State Wed/Thu this week and Sun/Mon next week. Check out QPFs below for bias of heavier amounts in SoCal Wed/Thu. Should see a lot of thunderstorm activity Wed/Thu across CA with good moisture and high sun angle of late Apr. Rain timed well for our moving day of Thu by Mayflower. Would seem like better low elevation precip totals compared to last system with amounts in range of 0.25 to 0.5 inch I-80 corridor and much of Central California. Only got 0.03 inches in Fairfield past weekend. Snow levels to 4500 feet Thu.
http://grads.iges.org/pix/prec1.html (10-day precip forecast)
http://grads.iges.org/pix/temp1.html (10-day temp forecast)
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/EXECSUM
(executive summary by Matt Winston)http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/index.html
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/4km/WR/IR4.GIF
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
NorCal and CenCal 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 5AM/Sat/30 Apr include 1.0 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 0.6 Feather and Kern, 0.5 San Joaquin, Santa Lucia Range, and Stanislaus, 0.4 American, 0.3 Arroyo Pasajero, 0.2 Eel and Shasta Dam, and 0.1 inches in the Russian River and Smith River basins. SoCal QPFs same period include 3.3 inches at Palomar Mountain, 3.1 San Jacinto Mtns, 2.9 Mount Wilson, 2.8 San Bernardino Mtns, 2.3 San Gabriel Mtns, and 1.0 inches in the Santa Ynez Mountains. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 0.7 inches over the weekend for an Apr total of 3.2 inches, 82 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is up to 45.9 inches, 102 percent of average to date. Feather total was 0.9 inches. Randall Osterhuber reports 129.5 inches of snow since 19 Mar at Central Sierra Snow Lab. Seasonal snowfall is 463 inches, 117 percent of average. Snow water content of 35.9 inches on 25 Apr was 106 percent of average.
California 72-hour remote sensor precip to 5AM/Mon/25 Apr includes 1.84 inches at Clear Creek (west of Redding), 1.80 at Shasta Dam, 1.66 at La Porte (Feather), 1.40 at Mount Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns), 1.12 at Taylor Ridge (Trinity), 0.95 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 0.94 at Quaking Aspen (Tule), 0.93 at Blue Canyon (American), 0.80 at Gianelli (Stanislaus), 0.60 at Orleans (Klamath), 0.56 at Big Meadows (Kings), 0.55 at Miranda (Eel), 0.52 at Venado (Russian), 0.48 at Big Sur, 0.45 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen), 0.44 at Poison Ridge (San Joaquin), 0.42 at Crabtree Meadows (Kern), 0.40 at Alpine Meadows (Tahoe), 0.28 at Salt Springs (Mokelumne), 0.25 at Big Bear, 0.24 at Honeydew (Mattole), Palomar Mountain, and Whispering Pines (Clear Lake), 0.17 at Case Mountain (Kaweah), and 0.16 inches at Gasquet (Smith).
NorCal/CenCal 72-hour coop/city precip to 5AM/Mon/25 Apr includes 0.77 inches at Grass Valley, 0.70 at Redding, 0.62 at Quincy, 0.60 at Chester, 0.59 at Mount Shasta, 0.53 at Alturas, 0.48 at Paradise, 0.46 at Auburn and Porterville, 0.45 at Mineral, 0.42 at Chico, 0.36 at Burney, 0.35 at Red Bluff, 0.34 at Arcata, 0.31 at Monterey, 0.28 at San Jose, 0.25 at Ukiah, 0.21 at Livermore, 0.20 at Tahoe City, 0.18 at Montague/Siskiyou, 0.17 at Eureka at Wishon Dam, 0.15 at Bass Lake and San Rafael, 0.13 at Moffett Field and in downtown Sacramento, 0.11 inches at Oroville, and 0.04 inches at Fairfield.
SoCal precip same period includes 0.43 inches at Santa Ana Radar, 0.33 at John Wayne Apt, 0.31 at Rialto, 0.30 at Chino Apt, 0.27 at Fullerton Apt, 0.22 at Morro Bay, 0.18 at Riverside Apt, 0.15 at Hawthorne, 0.14 at Paso Robles, 0.13 at San Luis Obispo Apt, and 0.11 inches on Long Beach Airport.
It is my last day and I am writing a little and cleaning up my cubicle a lot. It is becoming a massive throw away. I am trying to clean things up a bit for the next meteorologist who will likely be selected in Sep 2005. Matt Winston has agreed to do the widely distributed daily 10-day forecast for Feather River basin precip and snow levels. We thank him for adding that to his long list of duties. We will live in Parrish at 31 feet elevation in northern Manatee County. I hope to write a letter from Florida in May. Cheers! Bill Mork
Upper low over Utah on Tue is moving northward into Idaho today/Wed/20 Apr. GFS model shows this system splitting on Thu with a piece of the upper low moving westward into Oregon by late Thu and the other portion picked up by the westerlies and racing into eastern Nebraska by Thu night. Heavy, beneficial snows past few days in the Northern Rockies and Great Basin should taper off on Thu and end by Thu night as upper low over Oregon gets sucked into deepening upper trough off the West Coast with increased blocking over southwestern Canada and the northeast Gulf of Alaska. Short wave energy rotating around the Utah upper low triggered up to 9 inches of snow along the eastern Sierra Mon night and Tue morning with occasional closing of I-80 west of Reno AM/Tue. Despite the closing of some ski resorts, spring skiing conditions kept getting better with 4 inches of snow at Alpine Meadows. With a snowpack of 10 feet, Squaw Valley USA should stay open until Memorial Day.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=WSW&sid=LKN&version=0
(heavy snow warning northeast Nevada)http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
We still expect increasing blocking in the Gulf of Alaska with a deepening trough off the California Coast by this weekend with short waves or upper lows moving northeast across the State on the weekend and the middle of next week. We put 0.8 inches into the Feather basin Sat/Sun and 1.0 inches Wed/Thu/Fri of next week. Most NWS offices have added to their zone forecasts a chance of rain or showers this weekend in the Golden State. Look for some isolated thunderstorms with afternoon heating, especially in the Sierra Sat/Sun.
NorCal/CenCal orographic model 120-hour QPFs to 5AM/Mon/25 Apr includes 1.1 inches in the Russian River basin, 1.0 Santa Cruz Mtns and Shasta Dam, 0.8 Feather, 0.7 Eel, Santa Lucia Range, and Smith, 0.6 Stanislaus, 0.5 San Joaquin, 0.4 American, and 0.2 inches in the Arroyo Pasajero and Kern River basin. SoCal 120-hour QPFs include 1.1 inches at Mount Wilson, 0.9 San Gabriel Mtns, 0.5 Palomar Mountain and San Jacinto Mtns, 0.4 San Bernardino Mtns, and 0.3 inches in the Santa Ynez Mountains. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index remains at 2.3 inches in Apr, 59 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is 45.0 inches, 102 percent of average to date.
California 72-hour remote sensor precip to 5AM/Wed/20 Apr includes 1.08 inches at Kaiser Point (San Joaquin), 0.83 at Incline Village (Tahoe), 0.52 at Mount Rose Ski, 0.47 at Sierraville (Feather), 0.40 at Truckee Apt, 0.33 at Sonora Pass, 0.32 at Gasquet (Smith), and 0.12 inches at Orick on Redwood Creek. California coop/city precip same period includes 0.48 inches at Boca Reservoir (5.5 inches snow), 0.27 at Mammoth Lakes (3.0 inches snow), 0.26 at Markleeville, 0.12 at Cedarville, 0.10 at Bridgeport and Tahoe City, and 0.09 inches at South Lake Tahoe. (last day Fri -- Bill Mork)
Expect showers in the Sierra and gusty northwest winds today much of State to decrease tonight with mostly fair skies and warmer afternoon temps Wed through Fri. Rex block tries to develop by this weekend with blocking high near Juneau AL and closed low off the California Coast. Expect increasing clouds to move northward up the Golden State on Sat with increasing chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms much of the State PM/Sat through Sun/24 Apr. First upper low kicks out on Mon/25 Apr with replacement upper low dropping into position near the CA Coast by middle of next week and renewed opportunity for scattered showers across the State Wed/27 Apr through Sat/30 Apr.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/ (heavy snow Montana and Wyoming)
US Records: Record daily rainfall on Fri/8 Apr includes 2.89 inches at Miami FL, 2.68 at Key West FL, 2.08 at Raleigh-Durham NC, 1.83 at Fort Lauderdale FL, 1.03 at Atlantic City, 0.98 at JFK Apt NY, and 0.64 inches at Stockton CA. Record highs on Fri/8 Apr include 86 at Williston ND, 80 at Dickinson ND (tied), and 79 at Minot ND (tied). Record daily precip on Mon/11 Apr includes 4.00 inches at Shreveport LA, 3.12 at El Dorado AR, 2.23 at Ames IA, 2.00 at Des Moines IA, 1.52 at Marshalltown IA, 1.37 at Josesboro AR, 1.31 at St Joseph MO, 1.19 at Mobridge SD, and 0.84 inches at Lamoni IA. North Platte NE had a record 5.6 inches of snow on Mon/11 Apr. Bluefield WV also tied its record high of 80 on Mon/11/Apr. With 4 more inches of rain on Tue/12 Apr, Pensacola FL set a new rainfall record of 30.60 inches for the spring months of Mar, Apr, and May; the old record for the same period was 27.79 inches in 1937, state climatologist's birth year.
Yakima WA tied the record low of 20 on Wed/13 Apr and tied the record low of 23 on Thu/14 Apr. Pendleton OR tied the record low of 28 on Fri/15 Apr. Record lows on Sun/17 Apr include 28 at Salisbury MD (tied), 29 at Georgetown DE (tied), and 30 at Islip NY. Record highs on Sun/17 Apr include 86 at East Rapid City SD, 83 at Williston ND (tied), 71 at Houlton ME, and 70 at Islip NY. Record daily rainfall on Mon/18 Apr includes 1.50 inches at International Falls MN and 1.01 inches at Norfolk VA. Record highs on Mon/18 Apr include 79 at Marquette MI and 73 at Islip NY (tied). Record highs on Tue/19 Apr include 83 at Detroit MI (tied) and 80 at Green Bay WI.
A large and unseasonably cold upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will bring a cool, moist onshore flow to Northwest CA Tue/Wed and below normal temps and chance of showers in much of Northern California. GFS model shows limited moisture but enough cold, unstable air for chance of showers I-80 corridor northward and isolated thunderstorms north end of Sac Valley. NWS/Hanford latest San Joaquin Valley forecasts show chance of rain north of Fresno Tue night and Wed. NWS/Sac puts chance of rain showers into the Sac area Tue night and Wed. NWS/Monterey brings slight chance of showers to the Bay Area Tue night with strong west to northwest winds, gusting to 35 mph, Tue night/Wed Bay Area hills and coast. Biggest problems will likely be in Northwest CA with snow levels near 2000 feet and snow accumulating to several inches in the mountains with isolated thunderstorms. Fair/warmer most of CA Thu/Fri with chance of showers northern counties Sat/Sun.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=SPS&sid=EKA&version=0
(NWS/Eureka Special Statement)http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 120-hour orographic model QPFs are limited to 0.3 inches in the Smith River basin and 0.1 inches in the Eel River basin and at Shasta Dam. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 1.1 inches in the 48 hours to 9AM/Sat/9 Apr for an Apr total of 2.3 inches, 59 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is up to 45.0 inches, 104 percent of average to this date, Mon/11 Apr. This season's total now exceeds last year's total this date of 43.8 inches. Precip total in Apr 2004 was only 1.7 inches. Total precip in the Feather River basin was 1.8 inches, 7 - 9 Apr. My son, Chris, and I saw several funnel clouds the afternoon of Fri/8 Apr as we chased in from behind the reported tornadoes in the Sac area. Details follow.
Potent short wave transiting NorCal on Fri/8 Apr set up another unusual tornado/funnel cloud situation from Stockton north through the Sacramento area to Chico on Fri afternoon. Wind shear profiles east side of Sac Valley showed 120 degrees of shear from the surface through 5000 feet. At 2PM/Fri all surface weather stations from Stockton north through Red Bluff showed southeast winds of 15 to 30 mph with westerly surface winds as close as Travis AFB and Vacaville. There were a number of funnel cloud reports beginning at 2:55PM at Sac Intl Apt, continuing to about 4:30 PM. CHP reported tornadoes near Sac Intl Apt at 2:57 PM and near ARCO Arena at 3:22PM. Apparent F0 tornado damage occurred between 3:05 and 3:15PM near intersections of Edmonton Drive/Northstead and San Juan Road/Northgate Blvd. The tornado at 3:22PM may have been involved with a camper shell being blown off a pickup truck on I-80 near Truxel. Sac/NWS PIO Statement follows:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=PNS&sid=STO&version=0
Biggest action in the West over the weekend was the heavy snow/blizzard situation in northeast Colorado and the Denver metropolitan area where interstate highways were shut down much of Sun/10 Apr. Denver International Airport had 11.7 inches of snow with record daily precip of 1.09 inches on Sun/10 Apr, breaking the old daily record of 0.76 inches in 1908. Some of the heavier weekend Colorado snowfall totals include 31.0 inches at Conifer, 26.0 at Genesee, 25.4 at Black Hawk 3N, 25.0 at Golden 2SW, 22.3 at Aurora, 20.0 at Boulder 7SW, 18.0 at Evergreen, and 15.0 inches at Centennial. Some 48-hour Colorado precip totals to 5AM/Mon/11 Apr include 1.62 inches at Wheat Ridge, 1.44 at Englewood, 1.26 at Denver, 0.63 at Pueblo, 0.53 at Burlington, 0.50 at Lamar, 0.45 at Alamosa, 0.29 at Limon, 0.25 at Meeker, and 0.19 inches at La Junta.
California 48-hour remote sensor precip to 5AM/Sat/9 Apr includes 4.76 inches at Gasquet in the Smith River basin, 3.66 at La Porte (Feather), 2.72 at Orick (Redwood Creek), 2.70 at Orleans (Klamath), 2.64 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen), 2.32 at Hoopa (Trinity), 2.24 at Hillcrest (Shasta), 2.16 at Willits Howard (Russian), 2.00 at Honeydew (Mattole), 1.88 at Greek Store (American) and Miranda (Eel), 1.86 at Tiger Creek PH (Mokelumne), 1.76 at Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne), 1.70 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 1.56 at Bloods Creek (Stanislaus), 1.54 at Big Meadows (Kings), 1.49 at Mount Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns), 1.48 at Nature Point (San Joaquin), 1.37 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 1.34 at Quaking Aspen (Tule), 1.28 at Pascoes (Kern), 1.24 at Shasta Dam, 1.08 at Whispering Pines (Clear Lake), 0.94 at Atwell Camp (Kaweah), 0.87 at Yosemite Valley (Merced), 0.84 at St Helena (Napa), 0.68 at Big Sur, and 0.12 inches at San Marcos Pass in Santa Barbara County.
California 48-hour coop/city precip to 5AM/Sat/9 Apr includes 2.37 inches at Arcata, 1.96 at Crescent City, 1.31 at Ukiah, 1.24 at Blue Canyon and Eureka, 1.06 at Modesto, 0.97 at Stockton, 0.72 at Wishon Dam, 0.71 at San Rafael, 0.69 at Mount Shasta, 0.67 at Bass Lake, 0.63 at San Jose, 0.61 at Fairfield, 0.59 at Oakland, 0.56 at Redding, 0.50 at Monterey, 0.46 at SFO, 0.43 at Lemoore NAS and Marysville, 0.42 at Moffett Field, 0.41 at Red Bluff, 0.40 at Oroville, 0.37 at Merced and Sacramento, 0.30 at Madera, 0.24 at San Simeon, 0.21 at Port San Luis Obispo, 0.14 at Morro Bay, 0.13 at Porterville, 0.11 at Fresno and Palmdale, 0.10 at Visalia, and 0.09 inches at Bakersfield.
Additional California 48-hour coop/city precip to 11AM/Sat/9 Apr includes 1.70 inches at Grass Valley, 1.51 at Paradise, 1.29 at Grant Grove, 1.18 at Shasta Dam, 1.00 at Chico, 0.98 at Yosemite, 0.95 at Lodgepole, 0.90 at Auburn, 0.86 at Quincy, 0.72 at Wishon Dam, 0.70 at Oakhurst, 0.69 at San Andreas, 0.66 at Bass Lake, 0.62 at Burney, 0.48 at Truckee Apt, 0.46 at Chester, 0.42 at Vacaville, 0.37 at Travis AFB, 0.24 at Los Banos, 0.22 at Delano, 0.18 at Taft, 0.15 at Lemon Cove, 0.14 at Arvin, and 0.09 inches at Taft.
My last daily weather briefings were today in our Flood Ops Center and in the media room of the State Water Project. My last full work day will likely be Wed/20 Apr.
Latest Pacific weather system was weak as the frontal precip band moved through the Bay Area and I-80 corridor this morning, producing mostly a tenth of an inch of precip or less at lower elevations. Orographic lift produced better precip numbers in the mountains of Northern California; see the summary below. Things got more interesting this afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms developed on the east side of the Sac Valley. Between 3 and 4PM there were two separate reports of a funnel cloud near Rancho Cordova and south of Citrus Heights. I did a chase from the roof of the Joint Operations Center (JOC) in northeast Sacramento and did not see the funnel cloud but was more worried about my exposure to possible lightning from the dark-based buildups overhead. There were a number of small hail and lightning strike reports in the Sierra foothills.
Pacific weather system Fri could be wetter as precip spreads across NorCal Fri morning with showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. I-80 corridor/Sac totals may be near 0.25 inch Fri; 1/2 to 1-inch NorCal mtns. A snow advisory has been issued by NWS/Sacramento effective Fri for portions of Shasta and Lake Counties plus the Shasta Lake area. Expect up to 7 inches of snow above the 3500-foot level by Fri evening with wind gusts to 45 mph reducing visibilities over higher mountain passes. Behind the cold front, expect strong inflow into the Delta Fri afternoon and evening with west to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph, occasionally gusting to 35 mph. Look for showers to end in NorCal by early Sat with fair skies and warmer temps Sat/Sun most of State. Expect widespread showers/high elev snow Great Basin/Rockies into the Plains this weekend. GFS 18Z model agrees with UKMET/Euro models for deeper trough, wet/cooler weather NorCal/CenCal Mon - Wed.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
(Storm Prediction Center - 32 tornado reports on Wed/6 Apr)California 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 5AM/Tue/12 Apr include 2.4 inches in the Smith River basin, 1.2 Feather, 0.9 Eel, 0.8 Shasta Dam, 0.7 American, 0.6 Russian and Stanislaus, 0.2 San Joaquin and Santa Lucia Range, and 0.1 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Kern River basin. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 0.3 inches overnight for an Apr total of 1.2 inches, 31 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is up to 43.8 inches, 103 percent of average to date, the same total as one year ago, but with a much more favorable distribution this year. Feather basin picked up 0.1 inches up to 5AM/Thu and 0.4 inches the following 12 hours. For some REAL rain, check out the Florida Panhandle where 24-hour rainfall totals include 7.54 inches at Eglin AFB and 7.06 inches at Pensacola. Pensacola rainfall past 7 days is 21.02 inches, since 1 Mar is 26.47 inches, 360 percent of average to date, and since 1 Jan is 33.62 inches, 193 percent of average to date.
California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 5AM/Thu/7 Apr includes 1.24 inches at Honeydew in the Mattole River basin, 1.20 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen), 1.08 at Orick (Redwood Creek), 0.96 at Miranda (Eel), 0.84 at Orleans (Klamath), 0.76 at Hoopa (Trinity), 0.72 at Fort Dick (Smith), 0.70 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 0.60 at Mount Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns) and Venado (Russian), 0.40 at De Sabla (Feather), 0.36 at Shasta Dam, 0.28 at St Helena and Whispering Pines, and 0.16 inches at Ventana Cone in the Santa Lucia Range.
California 24-hour coop/city precip to 5AM/Thu/7 Apr includes 1.10 inches at Eureka, 1.00 at Arcata, 0.94 at Crescent City, 0.32 at Redding, 0.27 at San Rafael, 0.26 at Mount Shasta and Oroville, 0.24 at San Francisco, 0.20 at Red Bluff, 0.13 at SFO, 0.12 at Monterey and Oakland, and 0.11 inches at Moffett Field. Additional 24-hour coop/city precip to 11AM/Thu/7 Apr includes 0.58 inches at Quincy, 0.53 at Shasta Dam, 0.51 at Paradise, 0.48 at Burney, 0.44 at Blue Canyon, 0.38 at Sutter Hill, 0.32 at Grass Valley, 0.28 at Chester, 0.24 at Merced, 0.23 at Chico, 0.22 at Auburn, 0.13 at San Andreas, 0.11 at Montague/Siskiyou, and 0.10 inches at Sonora.
US Records: Record daily rainfall on Sat/2 Apr includes 3.46 inches at Allentown PA, 2.76 at Philadelphia PA, 2.36 at Williamsport PA, 1.86 at Harrisburg PA, 1.66 at La Guardia Apt NY and Wilmington NC, 1.63 at Baltimore MD, 1.17 at Islip NY, 1.15 at Bluefield WV, 1.12 at Elizabeth City NJ, 1.09 at Massena NY, 1.01 at Charleston SC, 0.99 at Charlottesville VA, and 0.54 inches at Jackson KY. Record lows on Sat/2 Apr include 30 at San Angelo TX (tied), 35 at Del Rio TX, and 43 at Corpus Christi TX. Record Maine daily rainfall on Sun/3 Apr includes 2.32 inches at Blanchard, 1.22 inches at Dover-Foxcroft, and 1.07 inches at Sebec Lake. Record highs on Sun/3 Apr include 83 at St Joseph MO and 82 at Kansas City Intl Apt. Record highs on Mon/4 Apr include 82 at Mason City, 80 at Sisseton SD and Valentine NE (tied), 79 at Jamestown ND (tied), 78 at Pierre SD (tied), and 77 at Mankato MN (tied). Florida 4 Apr record lows include 47 at Bradenton and 55 at Key West.
Beckley WV had a record high of 77 on Tue/5 Apr. Record daily rainfall on Wed/6 Apr includes 6.87 inches at Pensacola FL, 1.75 at Jackson TN, 1.50 at Concordia KS, and 1.04 inches at Marquette MI. Record highs on Wed/6 Apr include 86 at Dulles Intl Apt VA, 82 at Jackson KY (tied), 81 at Morristown NJ, 80 at Bluefield WV and Zanesville OH, 79 at Trenton NJ, 78 at Findlay OH, 76 at Mansfield OH, 75 at Mount Pocona PA, 74 at Binghamton NY, 66 at Meacham OR (tied), 59 at Houlton ME (tied), and 56 at Caribou ME (tied). Record highs on Thu/7 Apr include 79 at Williston ND and 74 at Logan UT ant Utah Test Range UT. Brunswick GA also had record daily rainfall of 1.08 inches on Thu/7 Apr.
Overall weather pattern is little changed from Tue except for stronger short waves and somewhat heavier amounts of precip in Northern California tonight through Fri. Also note the major outbreak of tornadoes in the South which began early this morning in Mississippi and Louisiana. I have raised the expected precip in the Feather basin to 1.3 inches from 0.8 inches yesterday. Eureka radar sees the precip offshore from the approaching Pacific weather system. Expect precip and lowering snow levels to spread across NorCal tonight, reaching the northern Sierra and I-80 corridor near midnight or in the early morning hours. Under cold pool, look for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the day Thu in the Sac Valley with snow accumulations up to 8 inches in the northern Sierra and southwest winds 25 to 45 mph creating hazardous driving conditions from blowing snow. Snow levels near 4000 feet on Thu NorCal. Similar weather system on Fri followed by nice weekend.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
(Storm Prediction Center; check out storm reports for tornadoes)California 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 5AM/Mon/11 Apr include 2.5 inches in the Smith River basin, 1.4 Feather, 0.8 American and Russian, 0.7 Eel, 0.6 Santa Cruz Mtns and Stanislaus, 0.4 Shasta Dam, and 0.1 inches in the San Joaquin and Santa Lucia Range.
Expect a return of onshore flow and a cooling trend Wed through Fri as short waves give NorCal a shot of precip PM/Wed through AM/Thu and again on Fri, but with less precip on Fri. Still looks like less than 0.25 inch of precip in the I-80 corridor Wed night and less than 1/10 inch of precip on Fri. Expect 1 to 1.5 inches liquid northwest CA PM/Wed and 0.5 to 0.75 inches liquid in the northern Sierra AM/Thu. Heavier amounts expected in the Pacific Northwest as they are better target for onshore flow and short wave energy from the Pacific. Elsewhere, upper level system Southern Plains should move into the lower Miss Valley and spread rain and thunderstorms over a good portion of the nation east of the Rockies. Severe weather today in the Central and Southern Plains should translate east and southeastward to the lower Miss Valley and Southeast next couple days. Dry and warmer in CA this weekend. Chance of precip next week now delayed until late in the week using 18Z GFS model.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
(Storm Prediction Center web page)California 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 5AM/Sun/10 Apr include 1.4 inches in the Smith River basin and at Shasta Dam, 1.1 Feather, 0.9 Eel, 0.7 Russian, 0.6 Santa Cruz Mtns, 0.4 American, and 0.3 inches in the Stanislaus River basin. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index has received 0.8 inches of precip so far in Apr, 21 percent of the monthly average. The seasonal total of 43.5 inches is 103 percent of average to date. Above normal precip in March raised the snowfall totals in most of the Sierra. Latest snow survey water content results ranged from 126 percent of average in the Nevada Irrigation District basin to as much at 170 percent of average in the Kings River basin. Other snow surveys showed 167 percent of average in the San Joaquin basin, 163 percent of average in the Merced and Tuolumne basins, 158 percent of average in the Stanislaus basin, and 135 percent of average near Echo Summit where last year's survey showed only 78 percent of average.
Here is the latest executive update by Matt Winston, Northern Sierra Precip graph, and statewide water content graph:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryForm?url=current%2FEXECSUM
For your info, courtesy of Jan Null/Golden Gate Weather Services:
March 2005 was relatively wet and warm in northern California while the south state had below normal rainfall and near to slightly above normal temperatures.
Average March temperatures for San Francisco, San Jose, Sacramento and Fresno fell in a very narrow range from 1.7 to 2.2 degrees above normal. Likewise rainfall for these four cities varied from 114% of normal at Fresno to 137% at San Francisco.
In southern California March temperatures ranged from -0.1 degrees below normal for Los Angeles to 0.8 degrees above at San Diego. And it was finally dry in the south with just 68% of normal at LA and 94% of normal at San Diego.
For the rainfall season to date (since July 1st) every station is at or above normal with higher anomalies the father south you travel. Eureka currently has 100% of normal, Sacramento 122%, San Francisco 136%, Fresno 140% and Los Angeles 261% of normal. In the northern Sierra Nevada the eight-station precipitation index has 104% of normal to date.
The monthly snowpack measurements are in the process of being taken but should show a continuation of above normal in the north and as high as 150% of normal in the southern Sierra Nevada. See http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/COURSES.html for updates.
March summary:
City March 2005 Normal March March Anomaly PON rain March 2005 max temp min temp avg temp rain max temp min temp avg temp rain max temp min temp avg temp rain max hi temp max lo temp min hi temp min lo temp San Francisco 65.1 50.7 57.9 4.67 62.5 49.2 55.9 3.40 2.6 1.5 2.0 1.27 137% 87 55 57 46 San Jose 67.3 50.1 58.8 3.55 67.0 46.4 56.7 2.69 0.3 3.7 2.1 0.86 132% 87 58 57 44 Sacramento 66.8 45.6 56.2 3.30 64.7 44.2 54.5 2.80 2.1 1.4 1.7 0.50 118% 80 52 58 38 Fresno 67.0 48.3 57.7 2.51 66.1 44.9 55.5 2.20 0.9 3.4 2.2 0.31 114% 80 55 58 41 Los Angeles 68.6 52.6 60.6 2.14 69.8 51.6 60.7 3.14 -1.2 1.0 -0.1 -1.00 68% 77 58 60 46 San Diego 65.9 55.7 60.8 2.12 66.3 53.6 60.0 2.26 -0.4 2.1 0.8 -0.14 94% 77 59 62 50
Latest Pacific weather system was a bit wetter than expected Sun and Sun night with 7 to 21 inches of snow over northern and central Sierra and 1 to 2 inches liquid in the mountains of Northern California. One of the wetter areas was the Feather basin with 1.3 inches of precip. Southland had hardly a sniff of rain with the outlook dry next 7 days as upper ridge shelters the area. Storm track continues active from the Pacific Northwest across the northern and central Rockies with leftovers into NorCal next 7 days. Systems emerging from Rockies will be strong enough for widespread precip Plains/Miss Valley eastward. Severe weather potential increases Central Plains/Miss Valley Tue and into the Southeast on Wed. Pacific weather system expected to drop near 1-inch liquid northwest CA on Wed, 0.25 to 0.5 inches northern, Sierra PM/Wed, and less than 0.25 inch I-80 corridor Wed night. Weaker system Fri night drops even less on NorCal. Warmer Tue/Wed; cooler Thu/Fri. CA weekend looks dry.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 5AM/Sat/9 Apr include 2.1 inches in the Smith River basin, 0.8 Eel and Shasta Dam, 0.4 Feather/Russian/Santa Cruz Mtns, 0.2 American, and 0.1 inches in the Stanislaus River basin. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 0.8 inches of precip over the weekend, mainly in the 24 hours to 5AM/Mon/4 Apr, for an Apr total of 0.8 inches, 21 percent of the monthly average. Season has increased to 43.5 inches, 103 percent of average to date. This represents 87 percent of the annual average of 50 inches. Seasonal total last year this date was 43.8 inches, 104 percent of the average to date. Apr 2004 was relatively dry with 1.7 inches, 44 percent of the monthly average of 3.9 inches. Neil Malloch says 87 in San Francisco on 11 Mar was the warmest ever in Mar. He is right; old record is 86 on 18 Mar 1914. Alta UT 21 - 31 Mar had 135.3 inches of snow with 11.93 inches of precip. Snow on ground 93 inches 14 Mar, 159 inches 31 Mar:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/climate/CLMMAR05.php
(Utah March summary; Alta snowfall total of 153.6 inches just short of record 164 inches in Mar 1982)http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/iodir/DLYSWEQ.20050404
(CA snow water content; 139 percent of normal statewide)California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 5AM/Mon/4 Apr includes 2.28 inches at Bucks Lake in the Feather River basin, 2.12 at Fort Richard (Smith), 1.76 at Honeydew (Mattole), 1.60 at Brandy Creek (west of Redding), 1.40 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen), 1.32 at Orick (Redwood Creek), 1.30 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 1.20 at Miranda (Eel), 1.16 at Venado (Russian), 1.06 at Mount Umunhum, 0.96 at Georgetown (American), 0.92 at Hoopa (Klamath), 0.80 at Tamarack Summit (San Joaquin), 0.79 at Black Springs (Stanislaus), 0.61 at Yosemite (Merced), and 0.56 inches at Ponciano Ridge (Santa Lucia Range), Shasta Dam, and Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne).
California 24-hour coop/city precip to 5AM/Mon/4 Apr includes 2.20 inches at Crescent City, 1.14 at Arcata, 1.01 at Eureka, 0.76 at Ukiah, 0.69 at Mount Shasta, 0.63 at San Jose and San Francisco, 0.62 at San Rafael, 0.51 at Fairfield, 0.47 at Sac Intl Apt, 0.46 at Oakland, 0.45 at SFO, 0.44 at Oroville, 0.40 at Livermore, 0.37 at Moffett Field, 0.36 at Marysville and Monterey, 0.28 at Mariposa, 0.22 at Sacramento, 0.20 at Redding, 0.19 at Porterville, 0.18 at Red Bluff, 0.14 at Alturas and Stockton, 0.13 at Merced and Modesto, 0.11 at Visalia, 0.09 at Fresno and Paso Robles, and 0.08 inches at San Simeon and Santa Maria.
Additional 24-hour California coop/city precip to 11AM/Mon/4 Apr includes 1.49 inches at Paradise, 0.95 at Burney, 0.83 at Quincy, 0.81 at Grass Valley, 0.75 at Grant Grove, 0.71 at Chester, 0.62 at Chico, 0.56 at Lodgepole, 0.53 at Glennville and Mammoth Lakes, 0.51 at Woodland, 0.50 at Oakhurst, 0.49 at Groveland and Wishon Dam, 0.46 at Vacaville, 0.42 at Auburn, 0.39 at Sonora, 0.38 at South Lake Tahoe and Travis AFB, 0.36 at Tahoe City, 0.32 at Bass Lake and Portola, 0.23 at Lemon Cove, 0.18 at Truckee Apt, 0.15 at Bridgeport, 0.14 at Delano, 0.12 at Markleeville, 0.11 at Arvin, 0.10 Cedarville, and 0.09 inches at Bakersfield.
Upper level flow next few days will feature a trough of low pressure over the center of the CONUS with ridging along the East and West Coasts. West Coast ridge looks strong enough to keep the Southland dry next 10 days. Modest Pacific weather system Northern California PM/Sun will be followed by a stronger system next Wed/Thu with chance of precip northern 2/3 of the Golden State. Active storm track with progressive short wave energy should keep the Pacific Northwest in a wet pattern with a lot of rainy days through next week. See discussion below concerning the turn to wetness during March in the State of Washington. Severe weather today up and down the Mississippi Valley will get a curtain call on Thu from East Texas to Alabama, and continue its act on Fri in the Southeast. Offshore winds die north and ramp up south tonight/Thu with high wind warning/wind advisories covering Southland. Severe clear, highs 70s Thu/Fri Central Valley/Bay Area. Cooler on weekend.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=SGX&version=0
(NWS/San Diego High Wind Warning)http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=LOX&version=0
(NWS/Oxnard Wind Advisory)http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 4AM/Mon/4 Apr include 1.9 inches in the Smith River basin, 0.9 Eel, 0.8 Shasta Dam, 0.6 Feather and Russian, and 0.3 inches in the American River basin. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 0.2 inches for a Mar 2005 total of 9.3 inches, 135 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is 42.7 inches, 103 percent of average to date. Since 1 Oct 2004, we have received 85 percent of the entire seasonal average of 50 inches. Feather basin picked up 0.3 inches for a 3-day total of 2.3 inches. Statewide snow water content is 135 percent of average, ranging from 121 percent north to 152 percent south. Here are updated charts for the 8-Station Index and snow water content:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/PLOT_ESI
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/PLOT_SWC
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/DLYSWEQ.html
Beneficial rain continues on a daily basis in Washington. SEATAC Airport has received 3.51 inches of precip so far in March, close to the monthly average of 3.54 inches. Seasonal total is 19.66 inches, 71 percent of average to date. There has been rain each day the past 4 days for a total of 2.68 inches. It has rained on 8 of the last 14 days for a total of 3.33 inches. Rains have been heavier in Olympia WA with 5.79 inches this month compared to the March average of 4.99 inches. Seasonal total is 26.39 inches, 68 percent of average to date. There has been rain each day the past 7 days in Olympia for a total of 4.22 inches. There has been rain on 12 of the past 14 days for a total of 5.54 inches. Model 72-hour QPFs to 4AM/Sat/2 Apr include 2.81 inches at Quillayute with rain in every 6-hour period, 1.27 inches at Stampede Pass, and 1.15 inches at SEATAC Airport. From the Western Regional Climate Center web site, here are latest NRCS SNOTEL precip and snow water averages:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinpren.html
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswen.html
California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Wed/30 Mar includes 1.24 inches at Greek Store (American), 0.97 at Tiger Creek PH (Mokelumne), 0.93 at Bloods Creek (Stanislaus), 0.85 at La Porte (Feather), 0.76 at Hoopa (Trinity), 0.68 at Mt Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns), 0.56 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen) and Gasquet (Smith), 0.53 at Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne), 0.34 at Leggett (Eel), 0.31 at Orleans (Klamath), 0.30 at Mammoth Pass (San Joaquin) and Ruth Lake (Mad), 0.28 at Shasta Dam, 0.24 at Honeydew (Mattole) and Orick (Redwood City), 0.21 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 0.20 at Willits Howard (Russian), 0.19 at Yosemite Valley, 0.18 at Big Sur and Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), and 0.16 inches at St Helena.
California 24-hour coop/sensor precip to 10AM/Wed/30 Mar includes 0.36 inches at Manzanita Lake, 0.35 at Blue Canyon, 0.34 at Sonora, 0.27 at Groveland, 0.26 at Cedarville and San Andreas, 0.23 at Modesto and Sutter Hill, 0.22 at Grass Valley and Tahoe City, 0.18 at Marysville, 0.15 at Paradise, 0.13 at Chester, 0.12 at South Lake Tahoe, 0.11 at Truckee Apt, 0.10 at Quincy, and 0.09 inches at Mammoth Lakes.
US Records: Record daily precip on Tue/22 Mar includes 1.22 inches at Fullerton Apt CA, 0.84 at Fresno CA, 0.69 at Riverside Apt CA, 0.65 at Winnemucca NV, and 0.50 inches at John Wayne Apt CA. Ely NV set at daily snowfall record of 4.2 inches and a daily precip record of 0.33 inches on Wed/23 Mar. Utah daily precip records on Fri/25 Mar include 1.18 inches at Brian Head, 1.00 at Tooele, 0.75 at Fillmore, 0.66 at Zion National Park, 0.41 at Delta, and 0.17 inches at Hanksville. Tooele UT also set a daily snowfall record on Fri/25 Mar with 6.0 inches of snow. Other records on Fri/25 Mar include a record daily rainfall of 2.69 inches at Daytona Beach FL and a record high temp of 83 at Pinson AL (tied). Oregon daily rainfall records on Sat/26 Mar include 2.61 at Astoria, 1.42 at Tillamook, 1.38 at Elgin, 1.24 at Troutdale, 1.19 at Portland, and 1.16 inches at Hillsboro.
Washington daily rainfall records on Sat/26 Mar include 2.15 inches at Hoquiam, 2.01 at Olympia, 1.51 at SEATAC Apt, and 1.38 inches at Vancouver. Record low temps on Sat/26 Mar include 10 at Randolph UT and 15 at Cedar City UT. Oregon daily rainfall records on Sun/27 Mar include 1.20 inches at Hillsboro, 1.17 at Portland, 1.09 at Troutdale, and 0.75 inches at Roseburg. Other daily precip records on Sun/27 Mar include 3.41 inches at Augusta GA, 1.60 at Alma GA, 1.55 at Crescent City CA, 1.25 at Vancouver WA, 0.67 at NOAA Sandpoint, 0.64 at SEATAC Apt WA (tied), and 0.42 inches at Victoria TX. Other daily records on Sun/27 Mar include a record high of 89 at Vero Beach FL and a record low of 27 at Douglas AZ.
A ton of daily rainfall records on Mon/28 Mar include 3.40 inches at Providence RI, 2.28 at Newark NJ, 2.12 at Bridgeport CT, 1.87 at Cincinnati OH, 1.83 at Baltimore MD, 1.80 at JFK Apt NY, 1.74 at Blacksburg VA, 1.72 at Allentown PA, 1.61 at Roanoke VA, 1.49 at Wilmington DE, 1.48 at Bangor ME, 1.45 at Columbus OH, 1.42 at Crescent City CA, 1.31 at Williamsport PA, 1.26 at Avoca NY, 1.14 at Jackson KY, 1.02 at Fort Myers FL, 0.88 at La Guardia Apt NY, and 0.64 inches at Islip NY. The monthly rainfall total at Fort Myers FL has reached 6.59 inches, the 7th wettest March on record. Records on Wed/30 Mar include a record high of 57 at Marquette MI (tied) and record daily precip of 0.64 inches at Hastings NE.
Today in Weather History: In 1823 a great Northeast storm with hurricane force winds raged from Pennsylvania to Maine. The storm was most severe over New Jersey with high tides, uprooted trees, and heavy snow inland. In 1899 Ruby CO was finally digging out from an amazing 141 inches of snow from a single storm. The old mining town is located in the Elk Mountain Range near Crested Butte. In 1977 Hartford CT established a record for the month of March with a high of 87. In 1987 a storm spread heavy snow across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. Cleveland OH picked up 16 inches of snow in 24 hours, their second greatest storm of record. Winds gusting to 50 mph created 8 to 12-foot waves on Lake Huron. The storm also ushered unseasonably cold air in the south central and southeastern US, with nearly 100 record lows in 3 days.
Upper level pattern features strong closed low off the Middle Atlantic Coast which brought record daily rainfall of 2 to 3 inches to the Northeast Mon/28 Mar. A short wave moving out of the Southern Rockies taps Gulf of Mexico moisture and produces rain and thunderstorms tonight over the Central Plains. Expect deepening moisture on Wed to bring increasing thunderstorm activity from the Central Gulf Coast States northward to the Ohio Valley. Look for more onshore flow and precip from the Pacific Northwest southeast to the Central Rockies. Transitory short wave brought modest precip totals to Northern and Central CA last night and this morning with lingering showers this afternoon in the Sierra. Wet weather to continue into next week Pacific Northwest. Fair and warmer CA Wed/Thu with offshore winds much of State. Wind advisories SoCal. Onshore flow and cooling this weekend with chance of rain NorCal Sun/Mon. Stronger Pacific weather system NorCal next Wed.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 4AM/Sun/3 Apr include 1.1 inches in the Smith River basin, 0.3 Shasta Dam, 0.2 American, Eel, and Feather, and 0.1 inches in the Russian, San Joaquin, Santa Cruz, and Santa Lucia Range. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 0.3 inches of precip for a Mar total of 9.1 inches, 131 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total has reached 42.5 inches, 103 percent of average to date. Check out the latest precip data from selected locations in California from NWS/Monterey. The only locations which have not exceeded their seasonal normals are Eureka, Redding, and Santa Rosa, all in Northern California. Most impressive numbers are from Los Angeles where the seasonal rainfall total of 36.01 inches, second wettest on record, is 227 percent of average to date and 238 percent of the annual average of 15.14 inches. Also check out Matt Winston's latest DWR Executive Summary covering water conditions in the West:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/getAFDversion.php?sid=SFO&pil=CLI&version=0
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/EXECSUM
California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Tue/29 Mar includes 2.68 inches at Elk Valley in the Smith River basin, 1.32 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen) and Orick (Redwood Creek), 1.28 at Hoopa (Trinity), 1.20 at Orleans (Klamath), 1.16 at Honeydew (Mattole), 0.96 at Miranda (Eel), 0.90 at Atwell Camp (Kaweah), 0.88 at La Porte (Feather), 0.80 at Mammoth Pass (San Joaquin), Quaking Aspen (Tule), and Ruth Lake (Mad), 0.72 at Willits Howard (Russian), 0.70 at Pascoes (Kern), 0.57 at Blue Canyon (American) and Stanislaus Meadow (Stanislaus), 0.51 at Tiger Creek (Mokelumne), 0.40 at Big Meadows (Kings) and Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne), 0.28 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 0.24 at Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), 0.20 at St Helena (Napa), 0.13 at Whispering Pines (Clear Lake), and 0.12 inches at Shasta Dam.
California 30-hour coop/city precip to 10AM/Tue/29 Mar includes 1.61 inches at Crescent City, 1.59 at Shelter Cove, 1.42 at Fortuna, 1.13 at Arcata, 1.01 at Eureka, 0.66 at Fort Bragg, 0.38 at South Lake Tahoe, 0.36 at Shasta Dam, 0.35 at Santa Rosa and Susanville, 0.34 at Ukiah, 0.33 at Groveland, 0.30 at Fairfield, Lodgepole, Oakland, and Sutter Hill, 0.26 at Fremont, Grass Valley, and SFO, 0.24 at Tahoe City, 0.23 at San Jose Apt and San Francisco, 0.20 at Auburn, Grant Grove, and Sonora, 0.15 at Cedarville, Los Banos, Monterey, and Sacramento, 0.12 at Visalia, and 0.11 inches at Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Stockton.
Upper level pattern features a closed low over the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast that moves eastward out over the Atlantic by Wed, but not before dumping heavy rains from the Appalachians northeast to New England with possible flooding as snow begins to melt. A short wave over Central California, which brought a good shot of precip to the Golden State, moves to the middle Mississippi Valley by Wed with rain and higher elevation snow over the Great Basin tonight and snow in the Central Rockies by AM/Tue. Precip totals in CA were mostly 1.5 to 3 inches North Coast and 1 to 2 inches northern and central Sierra. As the system emerges from the Central Rockies, it taps Gulf of Mexico moisture producing rain and thunderstorms east of the frontal boundary by Tue night. Tis the season for severe weather from Texas into the Southeast.
Another Pacific weather system, weaker than the departing one, brings light to moderate precip to northern half of California tonight and Tue morning. Could be enough orographic enhancement for snow advisory Sierra late tonight. Snow levels in the northern Sierra should be near 4000 feet tonight and Tue. Expect 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid northwest CA and 0.5 to 0.75 inches liquid northern Sierra by late Tue morning. Looks like 0.25 inch or less for the Sac/I-80 coridor, mostly ending by mid-morning Tue. Expect strong ridging and warming trend Wed/Thu with Thu likely the warmest day as temps rise into the 70s at lower elevations. Ridge breaks down as upper trough begins to dig into the West Coast over the weekend with a chance for some precip as early as Sun/3 Apr in NorCal. All models show a pretty strong Pacific weather system crossing northern half of CA PM/Tue and Wed next week for a wet start to Apr. LA season 2d wettest at 36.01 inches; winner 38.18 inches in 1883 - 84.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 4AM/Sat/2 Apr include 1.5 inches in the Smith River basin, 0.9 Feather, 0.7 American, 0.6 Eel, 0.5 Stanislaus, 0.4 Russian, 0.3 Santa Cruz Mtns and Shasta Dam, 0.2 San Joaquin and Santa Lucia Range, and 0.1 inches in the Kern River basin. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 1.7 inches over the weekend for a Mar total of 8.8 inches, 128 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is 42.2 inches, 103 percent of average to date. Seasonal total last year same date was 43.6 inches, 107 percent of average to date. Feather basin weekend total was also 1.7 inches. Snowfall at the Central Sierra Snow Lab (Donner Summit) to 8AM/Mon/28 Mar was 12 inches, with a likely 4 - 6 inches more since then. Seasonal snowfall has reached 418 inches compared to 382 inches a year ago. Snow depth this morning was 125 inches at Donner Summit. Highway 50 snow water content looks above normal for the Fri/1 Apr media event.
Mike Pechner, Golden West Meteorology, reports that Willamette Pass in Oregon (5128 feet elev, Highway 58) has received only 113 inches of snow so far this season compared to 381 inches this date last year. The Willamette Pass Ski Area closed on 5 Feb 2005 due to lack of snow. But Mar 2005 is the first good precip month in quite a while in Oregon. The Mar total so far in Portland is 3.45 inches; monthly average is 3.41 inches. Seasonal total at Portland has reached 16.34 inches, 61 percent of average to date. Astoria OR seasonal total is 38.00 inches, 75 percent of average to date. Salem OR seasonal total is 14.87 inches, 49 percent of average to date. Eugene OR seasonal total is 15.64 inches, 40 percent of average to date. You can hear the sucking sound of a very dry Willamette Valley trying to pull in some more Pacific storms. QPFs through 4AM/Thu/31 Mar include 1.42 inches at Astoria, 0.88 at Eugene and Salem, and 0.83 inches at Portland. Wet tonight/Tue.
California 48-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Mon/28 Mar includes 3.28 inches at Honeydew in the Mattole River basin, 3.04 at Gasquet (Smith), 2.49 at Stouts Meadow (Shasta), 2.40 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 2.36 at Hoopa (Trinity), 2.35 at Leggett (Eel), 2.07 at Bucks Lake (Feather), 2.00 at Yorkville (Russian), 1.90 at Blue Canyon (American) and Mineral (Battle Creek), 1.88 at Shasta Dam, 1.60 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen), 1.49 at Orleans (Klamath), 1.48 at Calaveras (Stanislaus), 1.44 at Orick (Redwood Creek) and Whispering Pines (Clear Lake), 1.39 at Salt Springs (Mokelumne), 1.22 at Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne), 1.20 at St Helena (Napa), 1.00 at Giant Forest (Tule), 0.92 at Mt Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns), 0.85 at Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), 0.76 at Graveyard Meadows (San Joaquin), 0.70 at Big Meadows (Kings), 0.69 at Yosemite Valley (Merced), 0.58 at Atwell Camp (Kaweah), 0.30 at Crabtree Meadows (Kern), and 0.16 inches at San Marcos Pass (Santa Barbara Cty).
California 48-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Mon/28 Mar includes 2.32 inches at Mount Shasta, 1.97 at Crescent City, 1.70 at Ukiah, 1.34 at San Rafael, 1.10 at Eureka, 0.76 at Mariposa, 0.74 at Arcata, 0.66 at Oroville, 0.63 at South Lake Tahoe, 0.60 at SFO, 0.56 at San Francisco, 0.52 at Monterey, 0.44 at Fairfield, 0.43 at Montague, 0.41 at Porterville and San Jose, 0.36 at Alturas and Redding, and 0.34 at Sacramento, 0.32 at Marysville, 0.29 at Moffett Field, 0.26 Red Bluff, 0.23 at Visalia, 0.18 at Fresno, San Luis Obispo Apt, and San Simeon, 0.17 at Merced and Lemoore NAS, 0.15 at Hanford Apt, 0.13 at Santa Maria and Stockton, 0.11 at Santa Barbara Apt, and 0.10 inches at Modesto.
California 24-hour coop/city precip to 10AM/Mon/28 Mar includes 1.87 inches at Paradise, 1.82 at Quincy, 1.54 at Groveland, 1.49 at Sonora, 1.40 at Chester, 1.32 at Sutter Hill, 1.30 at Tahoe City, 1.25 at Burney, 1.04 at Grass Valley, 0.89 at Chico, 0.80 at Boca Reservoir and Lodgepole, 0.76 at Markleeville and San Andreas, 0.70 at Auburn, 0.66 at Wishon Dam, 0.65 at Portola, 0.56 at Bass Lake and Grant Grove, 0.53 at Lemon Cove, 0.40 at Oakhurst, 0.39 at Vacaville, 0.23 at Bridgeport, 0.21 at Lee Vining, 0.19 at Truckee, 0.18 at Oxnard, 0.15 at Lompoc, Morro Bay, and Wasco, and 0.12 inches at Coalinga and Delano.
Impressive hose of subtropical moisture will connect with strong Pacific weather systems into Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this weekend and again mid to late next week. Short wave energy will tend to dive southeast through the Rockies to keep the kettle stirred with thunderstorms, some severe, from Oklahoma and Texas eastward to the Southeast and East Coast on and off over next 7 days. Upper trough with strong subtropical connection should bring needed heavy rains to the Pacific Northwest, 4 to 6 inches, over the weekend. Expect heavy rains and gusty southeast winds in the northwest counties of CA late Sat and Sun, with weakening system still bringing 2 to locally 3-inch rains to the North Coast mountains, Shasta drainage, and northern Sierra Sun night and Mon morning. Precip drops off to very light as far south as Kern. Ample precip northern Sac Valley drops off to 0.5 to 0.75 inches I-80 corridor with sharp dropoff south of Sac. Nice Easter Sunday Sac area.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=SPS&sid=EKA&version=0
(NWS/Eureka Special Weather Statement)http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=SPS&sid=MFR&version=0
(NWS/Medford OR SWS)http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 4AM/Wed/30 Mar include 5.5 inches in the Smith River basin, 3.0 Shasta Dam, 2.2 Eel, 1.8 Feather, 1.7 Russian, 1.0 Santa Cruz Mtns and Stanislaus, 0.9 Santa Lucia Range, 0.8 American, 0.5 Arroyo Pasajero, 0.4 San Joaquin and Santa Ynez Mtns, and 0.1 inches in the Kern River basin, at Mount Wilson, and in the San Gabriel Mountains. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 0.5 inches of precip the past 2 days, mostly on Wed, for a March total so far of 7.0 inches, 101 percent of the monthly average. Season has reached 40.4 inches, 100 percent of average to date. Last year this date the seasonal total was 42.4 inches, 105 percent of average to date. But Mar 2004 was dry and very warm compared to Mar 2005 which has been cool and wet in much of the State, giving us a much better water supply outlook going forward compared to last year. Index storm total is 6.1 inches; Feather basin storm total is 6.6 inches.
California 48-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Fri/25 Mar includes 2.16 inches at Telegraph Hill in the Tuolumne River basin, 1.80 at Georgetown (American), 1.60 at Tiger Creek (Mokelumne), 1.41 at La Porte (Feather), 1.40 at Calaveras (Stanislaus) and Quaking Aspen (Tule), 1.20 at Pascoes (Kern), 1.00 at Poison Ridge (San Joaquin), 0.80 at Atwell Camp (Kaweah), 0.76 at Hillcrest (Shasta), 0.72 at Big Meadow (Kings), 0.66 at Yosemite Valley (Merced), 0.39 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 0.28 at Hoopa (Trinity) and Orick (Redwood Creek), 0.24 at Shasta Dam, and 0.16 inches at Leggett (Eel) and Palomar Mountain.
California 48-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Fri/25 Mar includes 1.30 inches at Blue Canyon, 1.00 at Mariposa, 0.51 at Redding, 0.42 at Bass Lake, 0.39 at Bakersfield and Wishon Dam, 0.29 at Santa Ana Radar, 0.26 at Beaumont, 0.23 at Alturas, 0.22 at Livermore and Oroville, 0.20 at Death Valley and San Francisco, 0.19 at Montague and Ramona Apt, 0.18 at Sacramento, 0.17 at Palmdale, 0.15 at SFO, 0.14 at Oakland Apt, 0.13 at Santa Maria, 0.12 at Modesto, San Jose, and South Lake Tahoe, 0.11 at Marysville, San Luis Obispo, and Stockton, and 0.10 inches at Eureka and Madera. Additional 48-hour totals to 10AM/Fri include 1.37 inches at Groveland, 1.17 at Grass Valley, 1.13 at Sonora, 0.82 at Sutter Hill, 0.55 at Auburn, 0.54 at Manzanita Lake, 0.47 at Oakhurst, 0.35 at Paradise, 0.29 at Glennville and Lodgepole, 0.25 at Kettleman City, Portola, and Tahoe City, and 0.16 inches at Boca Reservoir and Cedarville.
US Records: Daily snowfall records on Fri/18 Mar include 16.8 inches at Rochester MN, 13.9 inches at Lacrosse WI, 11.8 inches at Mason City IA, 9.4 inches at Sioux Falls SD, 7.0 inches at Kennebec SD, and 4.6 inches at Minneapolis MN. The storm total of 19.9 inches of snow on 18 - 19 Mar at Rochester MN set the all-time record for a single snowstorm at that location. Kennebec SD also set a daily precip record of 0.55 inches on Fri/18 Mar. Records on Sat/19 Mar include a daily rainfall record of 1.39 inches at Victoria TX and a daily low temp record of 42 at Melbourne FL. Utah daily precip records on Sun/Mar 20 include 1.65 inches at Alta, 1.31 at Brian Head, 1.24 at Zion National Park, 0.84 at Pleasant Grove, 0.67 at Provo BYU, 0.62 at Kanab, 0.51 at Nephi, 0.49 at Salt Lake City Apt, and 0.41 inches at Hanksville. Other Sun records include 4.14 inches at Forks WA, 2.56 Jackson MS, 2.12 Quillayute WA, 1.74 Hoquiam WA, 1.23 Astoria OR, and 0.19 inches Challis OR.
There was also a daily low temp record of 45 at Vero Beach FL (tied) on Sun/20 Mar. Daily precip records on Mon/21 Mar include 1.74 inches at Concordia KS, 1.49 at McAlister OK, 1.44 at Kearney NE, and 0.67 inches at Valentine NE. Valentine NE also set a daily snowfall record of 6.3 inches on Mon/21 Mar. Record daily rainfall on Tue/22 Mar includes 2.78 inches at Charleston SC, 1.40 at Williamsport PA, 1.35 at Atlantic City NJ, 1.33 at Savannah GA, and 0.31 inches at Pendleton OR. High temp records on Tue/22 Mar include 87 at Orlando FL (tied) and 80 at Galveston TX. Daily precip records on Wed/23 Mar include 2.10 inches at Georgetown MD, 1.85 at Washington National Apt DC, 1.79 at Martinsburg WV, 1.40 at Williamsport PA, 0.45 at Pocatello ID, 0.40 at Stanley ID, 0.39 inches at Islip NY, and 0.19 inches at Challis ID. Record daily snowfall on Wed/23 Mar includes 2.7 inches at Albany NY and 2.2 inches at Windsor Locks CT.
Record high temps on Wed/23 Mar include 90 at Miami FL and 80 at Galveston TX. Record high temps on Fri/25 Mar include 87 at New Orleans Audubon Park, 84 at New Orleans Intl Apt, and 81 at Galveston TX. The Weather Channel reported that Great Falls MT set a monthly snowfall record with 27.8 inches so far in Mar 2005. I could not confirm this from the NWS/Great Falls web site, but I did confirm this from the Western Regional Climate summary web site data for Montana.
Prior to frontal passage in Sacramento near 9AM/Tue/22 Mar, southeast winds gusted as high as 43 mph at Sac Intl Apt while heavy rains of 1 to 2 inches fell in the Fairfield/Vacaville area. By noon Tue, the frontal zone kicked off thunderstorms from Stockton/Manteca northeast into the foothills. Short wave and jet stream dynamics then brought a large area of showers and thunderstorms across the Bay Area, through the San Joaquin Valley, and into the Sierra later in the afternoon on Tue/22 Mar. Precip totals in the Sierra and foothills by this morning, Wed/23 Mar, were in the 2 to 5-inch liquid range with 2 to 3 feet of snow above 7000 feet. Additional short wave energy today brought another 6 to 12 inches of snow to much of the Sierra with snow levels near 3500 feet. There was enough heating by mid-afternoon under a cold upper trough for severe thunderstorms east of Marysville and in the Corning area. There remains a chance of showers Thu in the Sierra, slight chance elsewhere.
Precip totals Southland on Tue were larger than expected with 2 to 4 inches in Santa Barbara County, and 1 to 2 inches in LA and Ventura Counties. Next weather system will move southeast across the Southland on Thu with rainfall mostly 0.25 inch or less LA basin and 0.25 to 0.5 inch San Diego, 1 to 1.5 inches mountains San Diego County. Models still show strong southwest flow and subtropical hose of moisture into the Pacific Northwest by Sat/26 Mar. Change from yesterday is that GFS model shows this band of heavy precip hanging together and shifting southward to the CA North Coast AM/Sun and into the northern Sierra PM/Sun. Models show possible 5 inches in the Smith basin and 3 to 4 inches in other basins of NorCal. Expect much less precip going south with only very light stuff reaching the Kern basin late Mon. Good chance of rain I-80 corridor Sun night/Mon morning.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
NorCal/CenCal 120-hour orographic QPFs to 4AM/Mon/28 Mar include 5.5 inches in the Smith River basin, 4.7 Eel, 4.1 Feather, 3.2 Shasta Dam, 2.8 Russian, 2.5 American, 2.1 Santa Cruz Mtns, 1.7 Stanislaus, 1.5 Santa Lucia Range, 1.2 San Joaquin, 0.4 Kern, and 0.3 inches in the Arroyo Pasajero. SoCal QPFs same period include 1.3 inches at Palomar Mountain and in the San Jacinto Mountains, 0.8 San Bernardino Mtns, 0.5 Mount Wilson, 0.4 San Gabriel, and 0.3 inches in the Santa Ynez Mountains. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index had another good day with 1.3 inches of precip for a March total of 6.5 inches, 94 percent of average to date. Seasonal total has reached 39.9 inches, 100 percent of average to date. Seasonal last year this date was 42.3 inches, 106 percent of average to date. Mar 2004 had only 2.2 inches of precip, 32 percent of the monthly average. Index storm total is 5.6 inches. Feather basin picked up 1.5 inches for a storm total of 6.0 inches.
Mike Pechner passed along the latest snow job from the Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Summit. Total snowfall from Fri/18 Mar through 2PM/Wed/23 Mar is 66.6 inches. Measurements include 28 inches over the weekend to 8AM/Mon/21 Mar, 9.6 inches to 8AM/Tue/22 Mar, 19 inches to 8AM/Wed/23 Mar, and 10 inches since 8AM this morning. Snow depth this morning was 120 inches compared to 95 inches last year this date. Snowfall so far this season is 400 inches compared to 382 inches last year this date. Statewide snow water content is up 16 percent over the past week at 129 percent of normal. This ranges from 149 percent of normal south to 112 percent of normal north. States Lakes at 10,300 feet on the Kings River had 3.9 inches liquid past 24 hours with 48.0 inches total snow water content, a 20 percent increase from a week ago. Squaw Valley at 8,200 feet on the Truckee River has snow water content of 66.2 inches, a 19 percent increase over the past 7 days.
California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Wed/23 Mar includes 4.19 inches at San Marcos Pass (Santa Barbara Cty), 4.17 at Mammoth Pass (San Joaquin), 4.06 at Big Meadows (Kings), 3.35 at Three Peaks (Santa Lucia Range), 3.30 at Giant Forest (Tule), 3.20 at Atwell Camp (Kaweah), 3.12 at Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne), 2.88 at Georgetown RS (American), 2.72 at Brandy Creek (west of Redding) and La Porte (Feather), 2.52 at Calaveras (Stanislaus), 2.50 at Pascoes (Kern), 2.37 at Tiger Creek (Mokelumne), 2.35 at Yosemite Valley (Merced), 2.29 at Alpine Meadows (Tahoe), 2.16 at Shasta Dam, 2.06 at Opids Camp (LA Cty), 1.95 at Mt Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns), 1.35 at Palomar Mtn, 1.12 at Honeydew (Mattole), 1.08 at Big Bear, 1.04 at Yorkville (Russian), 0.86 at Taylor Ridge (Trinity), 0.66 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 0.56 at Fort Richard (Smith), 0.52 at Miranda (Eel), 0.50 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 0.48 at St Helena (Napa), and 0.40 inches at Bridgeville (Van Duzen).
NorCal/CenCal 24-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Wed/23 Mar includes 5.37 inches at Wishon Reservoir, 3.20 at Bass Lake, 2.95 at Mariposa, 2.48 at Blue Canyon, 1.20 at Monterey, 1.18 at Bishop, 1.12 at San Francisco and Stockton Apt, 1.05 at Merced, 0.98 at Mount Shasta, 0.89 at Redding, 0.85 at Oakland, 0.83 at Livermore, 0.80 at South Lake Tahoe, 0.64 at Crescent City, 0.63 at San Jose, 0.55 at SFO, 0.52 at Moffett Field, 0.51 at Ukiah, 0.50 at Modesto, 0.45 at Fresno, 0.44 at Sacramento, 0.43 at San Rafael, 0.39 at Madera, 0.29 at Visalia, 0.25 at Arcata, 0.24 at Eureka and Porterville, 0.22 at Hanford, 0.16 at Bakersfield, 0.13 at Alturas and Fairfield, and 0.12 inches at Lemoore NAS and Marysville.
Additional NorCal/CenCal 24-hour totals to 10AM/Wed/23 Mar include 5.00 inches at San Andreas, 3.80 at Grant Grove, 2.36 at Groveland and Oakhurst, 2.32 at Sonora, 2.10 at Grass Valley and Sutter Hill, 1.65 at auburn, 1.35 at Glennville, 1.29 at Willows 6W, 1.09 at Lee Vining, 1.00 at Mammoth Lakes, 0.94 at Quincy, 0.91 at Tahoe City, 0.88 at Bridgeport, 0.80 at Wasco, 0.70 at Truckee Apt, 0.69 at Markleeville, 0.65 at Boca Reservoir and Paradise, 0.55 at Lemon Cove, 0.50 at Chester, 0.43 at Los Banos, 0.35 at Mojave, 0.20 at Montague/Siskiyou, 0.19 at Travis AFB, 0.14 at Delano, 0.12 at Cedarville, and 0.11 inches at Vacaville.
SoCal 24-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Wed/23 Mar includes 2.24 inches at Santa Barbara Apt, 2.12 at San Luis Apt, 1.80 at Santa Maria, 1.35 at Paso Robles, 1.25 at Burbank and Santa Monica Apt, 1.22 at Fullerton Apt, 1.12 at Oxnard, 1.08 at Beaumont and Los Angeles, 1.02 at Camarillo, 0.99 at Long Beach, 0.96 at Van Nuys, 0.85 at Chino Apt, 0.82 at LAX, 0.79 at Ontario, 0.69 at Riverside Apt, 0.68 at San Simeon, 0.56 at Rialto, 0.54 at Campo, 0.53 at San Diego, 0.51 at Ramona Apt and Sandberg, 0.50 at John Wayne Apt, 0.42 at Hesperia, 0.40 at Mitchell Caverns, 0.33 at Palmdale, 0.28 at Oceanside, 0.23 at Edwards AFB, 0.19 at Baker and Lancaster, and 0.12 inches at Palm Springs.
Additional SoCal 24-hour totals to 10AM/Wed/23 Mar include 2.32 inches at Santa Barbara City, 2.30 at Getty Center, 1.61 at UCLA, 1.22 at San Gabriel, 0.96 at Van Nuys, 0.71 at Point Mugu, 0.70 at Mount Wilson, 0.68 at Thousand Oaks, 0.47 at Lompoc, 0.21 at Morro Bay, and 0.19 inches and Pismo Beach.
The upper level pattern features a broad long wave trough across the lower 48 States with imbedded short waves. A Pacific short wave is moving onshore over Northern California and should weaken as it moves under a closed low over British Columbia and into the Great Basin and intermountain region. Onshore flow is directing a channel of deep Pacific moisture across Central and Southern California and into the Sierra with heavy snow and strong winds producing occasional whiteout conditions. Good chance of 2 to 3 feet of snow in the Sierra from this latest storm as snow levels drop to 4000 feet tonight. Showers and thunderstorms have moved from the Central Valley into the Sierra this evening with heavy rain foothills and heavy snow at higher elevations. Expect precip to decrease in the Sierra late tonight, but look for more showers much of State on Wed as additional short waves transit the State. Possible rain Southland Thu is followed by dry CA weather Fri/Sat/Sun.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
NorCal/CenCal 120-hour orographic QPFs to 4AM/Sun/27 Mar include 3.1 inches in the Feather basin, 2.7 Stanislaus, 2.5 American, 2.3 San Joaquin, 2.1 Smith, 1.7 Kern, 1.6 Santa Lucia Range, 1.5 Eel, 1.4 Russian, 1.3 Shasta, 1.0 Arroyo Pasajero, and 0.9 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains. SoCal QPFs same period include 3.3 inches at Palomar Mountain, 3.0 San Jacinto Mtns, 2.9 at Mount Wilson, 2.7 at San Bernardino Mtns, 2.4 San Gabriel Mtns, and 2.2 inches in the Santa Ynez Mountains. Things are looking good now for a productive March in the Sierra. The Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index received 1.5 inches the past 24 hours for a Mar total of 5.2 inches, 75 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total has reached 38.6 inches, 97 percent of average to date. Seasonal total last year this date was 42.3 inches, 107 percent of average to date. Storm total since last Fri is 4.3 inches. Feather basin picked up 1.2 inches past 24 hours; storm total is 4.5 inches.
California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Tue/22 Mar includes 3.68 inches at Clear Creek (west of Redding), 2.96 at Venado (Russian), 2.46 at Big Sur, 2.37 at Three Peaks (Santa Lucia Range), 2.15 at Taylor Ridge (Trinity), 2.08 at Bucks Lake (Feather), 1.97 at Whispering Pines (Clear Lake), 1.96 at Honeydew (Mattole) and Shasta Dam, 1.93 at Mt Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns), 1.50 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 1.23 at Blue Canyon (American), 1.15 at Bloods Creek (Stanislaus), 1.04 at Fort Dick (Smith), 1.03 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 0.92 at Nature Point (San Joaquin), 0.88 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen), 0.81 at Alpine Meadows (Tahoe), 0.80 at Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne), 0.75 at Yosemite Valley (Merced), 0.69 at Orleans (Klamath), 0.68 at Orick (Redwood Creek), 0.55 at Salt Springs (Mokelumne), 0.36 at Quaking Aspen (Tule), 0.35 at Atwell Camp (Kaweah) and Big Meadows (Kings), and 0.18 inches at Beach Meadows in the Kern River basin.
California 24-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Tue/22 Mar includes 2.63 inches at San Rafael, 1.43 at Redding, 1.13 at Crescent City, 1.06 at Oakland, 0.93 at San Francisco, 0.89 at Red Bluff, 0.80 at Mount Shasta, 0.75 at Ukiah, 0.64 at SFO, 0.61 at Monterey, 0.59 at Mariposa, 0.52 at Arcata, 0.51 at Marysville, 0.49 at Fresno and Sacramento, 0.46 at Oroville, 0.42 at San Simeon, 0.35 at Stockton, 0.32 at Madera and Merced, 0.31 at South Lake Tahoe, 0.30 at Eureka, 0.29 at San Jose, 0.28 at Livermore, 0.26 at Moffett Field, 0.25 at Modesto, 0.20 at Alturas and Visalia, 0.18 at San Luis Obispo, 0.14 at Lemoore NAS and Paso Robles, and 0.13 inches at Hanford Apt.
Additional 10 AM reports include 1.96 inches at Vacaville, 1.34 at Grass Valley, 1.30 at Auburn, 1.27 at Tahoe City, 1.20 at Lodgepole, 1.15 at Paradise, 1.12 at Grant Grove, 1.04 at Willows 6W, 1.02 at Quincy, 0.99 at Chester, 0.98 at Burney and Mammoth Lakes, 0.96 at Travis AFB, 0.88 at Pismo Beach, 0.85 at Susanville, 0.81 at Sonora, 0.78 at Morro Bay, 0.74 at Portola, 0.67 at Oakhurst, 0.65 at Boca Reservoir, 0.43 at Lee Vining, 0.27 at Bridgeport, and 0.13 inches Cedarville.
An unsettled weather pattern is expected across the US the next few days as a fair amount of blocking continues at high latitudes and split flow directs a northern stream across southern Canada and a strong southern stream across the West Coast/Rockies into the Southern Plains and Southeast. GFS model hiccup on Fri was corrected as next strong Pacific weather system tonight and Tue will bring moderate to heavy precip to Northern and Central California and light to moderate precip to Southern California. Warm advection precip is spreading into our area this evening with expectations of gradually heavier precip during the night. Cold front is expected to pass across the Sac Valley by mid-morning Tue with good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Tue afternoon and night behind the front. Look for heavy snow to develop tonight in the Sierra and continue most of Tue as strong southwesterly flow brings good orographics into the Sierra and Shasta drainage.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=WSW&sid=STO&version=0
(NWS/Sac Winter Storm Warning)http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=WSW&sid=HNX&version=0
(NWS/Hanford WSW)http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=WSW&sid=REV&version=0
(NWS/Reno WSW)http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=MTR&version=0
(NWS/Monterey Wind Advisory)Above winter storm warnings call for 2 to 3 feet of snow in the Sierra by Tue night with occasional whiteout conditions as winds gust 40 to 50 mph. Don't mess with Mother Nature. Modest expectations in the Southland produce 0.5 to 1-inch liquid coast and valleys with 1 to 2 inches in the mountains tonight through Wed. Look for 1 to 1.5 inches liquid Sac Valley with 2 to 4 inches in higher terrain west and north of Redding from strong low level southeast flow tonight and Tue. Expect 0.25 to 0.75 inches in the San Joaquin Valley. Look for 0.5 to 2.5 inches Bay Area with 3 to 4 inches possible North Bay. Deepening surface low pressure area will move northeast to near Crescent City by Tue morning with strong cold front progressing eastward during the morning across NorCal and CenCal. Look for southeast winds 20 to 35 mph NorCal ahead of cold front tonight and Tue morning ahead of front with possible gusts to 50 mph near the coast. More showers CA Wed/Thu, heavier Southland.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/ (Watches, warnings, advisories in the West)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ (Current severe weather watches and outlook)
NorCal/CenCal 120-hour orographic model QPFs to 4AM/Sat/26 Mar include 4.7 inches in the Feather River basin, 3.3 Shasta, 3.1 American, 2.9 Eel and Stanislaus, 2.8 Santa Cruz Mtns, 2.4 Santa Lucia Range, 2.1 Russian/San Joaquin, 1.8 Kern, 1.3 Arroyo Pasajero, and 0.8 inches in the Smith River basin. SoCal QPFs same period include 6.0 inches at Palomar Mountain, 5.3 San Jacinto Mtns, 4.9 Mount Wilson, 4.2 San Bernardino Mtns, 3.8 San Gabriel Mtns, and 2.9 inches in the Santa Ynez Mountains. These SoCal numbers today are quite a bit higher than QPFs from other models and from NWS offices in Oxnard and San Diego. But as a matter of continuity and sharing, I provide these orographic QPF model numbers on a daily basis. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index added 2.7 inches over the weekend for a Mar total of 3.5 inches, 51 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is 36.9 inches, 93 percent of average to date. Feather basin had 3.3 inches on the weekend.
California 72-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Mon/21 Mar includes 5.12 inches at Bucks Lake (Feather), 4.80 at Mount Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns), 4.56 at Gasquet (Smith), 4.48 at Greek Store (American), 4.40 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 4.24 at Leggett (Eel), 3.92 at Yorkville (Russian), 3.78 at Big Meadows (Kings), 3.64 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen)/Nature Point (San Joaquin), 3.60 at Gianelli (Stanislaus), 3.50 at Salt Springs (Mokelumne), 3.34 at Honeydew (Mattole), 3.29 at Atwell Camp (Kaweah), 3.22 at Yosemite Valley, 3.14 at Trinity Guard Station, 3.10 at Orleans (Klamath), 3.07 at Quaking Aspen (Tule), 2.80 at St Helena (Napa), 2.64 at Chews Ridge (Santa Lucia Range), 2.60 at Whispering Pines (Clear Lake), 2.48 at Orick (Redwood Creek) and Shasta Dam, 2.42 at Hetch Hetchy (Tuolumne), 1.86 at Crabtree Meadows (Kern), 1.11 at Opids Camp (LA Cty), 0.96 at San Marcos Pass (Santa Barbara Cty), 0.80 at Nordhoff Ridge (Ventura), and 0.76 inches at Palomar Mtn.
NorCal/CenCal 72-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Mon/21 Mar includes 3.47 inches at Blue Canyon, 3.09 at Bass Lake, 2.58 at Eureka, 2.51 at Arcata, 2.27 at Crescent City, 2.22 at Mariposa, 2.03 at Ukiah, 1.66 at San Rafael, 1.58 at Mount Shasta, 1.49 at Redding, 1.13 at Fairfield, 0.91 at Oroville, 0.86 at Merced, 0.80 at San Francisco, 0.74 at SFO, 0.70 at Sacramento, 0.67 at Marysville, 0.59 at Moffett Field, 0.57 at Red Bluff, 0.55 at Hanford Apt and Oakland Apt, 0.54 at Stockton, 0.51 at Visalia, 0.48 at San Jose, 0.47 at Madera, 0.41 at Porterville, 0.40 at Monterey, 0.39 at Livermore, 0.33 at Alturas, 0.25 at Lemoore NAS, 0.18 at Bakersfield, and 0.12 inches at Modesto.
Additional NorCal/CenCal 72-hour precip to 10AM/Mon/21 Mar includes 4.32 inches at Lodgepole, 2.71 at Sutter Hill, 2.64 at Quincy, 2.47 at Paradise, 2.34 at Oakhurst, 2.31 at Grass Valley, 2.03 at Chester, 1.52 inches at Boca Reservoir (14 inches snow), 1.44 at Burney, 1.34 at Glennville, 1.24 at Sonora, 1.10 at Chico and Vacaville, 0.94 at Mammoth Lakes (13 inches snow), 0.84 at Bridgeport (12 inches snow), 0.65 at Travis AFB, 0.63 at Markleeville, 0.39 at Delano, 0.26 at Wasco, and 0.24 inches at Kettleman City.
SoCal 72-hour coop/city to 4AM/Mon/21 Mar includes 0.91 inches at San Simeon, 0.81 at San Luis Obispo Apt, 0.62 at Mount Wilson, 0.56 at Santa Ana Radar, 0.55 at Morro Bay and Oceanside, 0.41 at Ramona Apt, 0.37 at Paso Robles, 0.36 at Santa Barbara Apt, 0.35 at Oxnard, 0.34 at Campo, 0.33 at Newhall, 0.32 at Santa Maria, 0.30 at Los Angeles and Mountain Pass, 0.28 at Camarillo, 0.27 at Rialto, 0.22 at Chino and Long Beach, 0.21 at Lancaster, 0.20 at Edwards AFB, Palmdale, and Santa Monica Apt, 0.19 at Beaumont, 0.18 at Burbank and Riverside, 0.13 at Ontario and Sandberg, 0.12 at John Wayne Apt and Mitchell Caverns, 0.11 at Barstow Daggett and LAX, and 0.07 inches at San Diego.
Upper level pattern favors high latitude blocking over the Northern Hemisphere the next few days with broad trough of low pressure over the US. By the weekend, blocking high near Hudson Bay weakens while blocking high western Alaska develops. This new blocking high and a deepening upper level low in northeast Pacific combine to aid in process of undercutting of strong westerly flow across the Pacific into the West Coast. Most models now show a series of short waves with periods of precip in CA Fri/18 Mar - Thu/24 Mar before slow-moving upper trough finally carries precip out of the State by early Fri/25 Mar. Big change from models on Wed would be the slower nature of final upper level system which essentially cuts off west of us to keep orographic southwesterly flow going through Wed over northern half of State. Broad moist flow expected to bring good rains to Southland Fri - Sun, but not as heavy as precip in northern half of State Sat and Mon/Tue.
Negative-tilt trough brings rain to the CA coast tonight and to Sacramento/Bakersfield line Fri morning. Light to moderate precip covers most of State by PM/Fri. Models show strong vertical velocities and heavy rain with short wave on Sat NorCal and CenCal. South to southwest flow of subtropical moisture expected to bring mod, briefly heavy, precip to SoCal transverse mountain ranges PM/Fri and Sat with precip tapering off on Sun. SoCal rainfall Fri - Sun expected to be 1 to 1.5 inches coast and valleys and 1.5 to 3 inches, locally 4, in mountains. NorCal and CenCal will likely see Fri - Sun liquid totals of 3 to 5 inches in the mountains and 1 to 2 inches at lower elevations. Deepening Pacific weather system expected to set up strong warm advection precip pattern with subtropical moisture PM/Mon through Wed with heaviest CA totals north of I-80 corridor, with similar totals as above but more northern bias. SoCal dry Mon/Tue; rain PM/Wed and Thu. Windy North Coast Mon.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=WSW&sid=STO&version=0
(NWS/Sac Winter Storm Watch)http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=WSW&sid=REV&version=0
(NWS/Reno Winter Storm Watch)NorCal/CenCal orographic 120-hour QPFs to 4AM/Tue/22 Mar include 7.8 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 7.4 Feather, 5.9 Shasta, 5.6 Stanislaus, 5.4 American and Santa Lucia Range, 5.0 Eel, 4.6 Smith, 4.4 Russian, 3.6 San Joaquin, 2.8 Arroyo Pasajero, and 2.0 inches in the Kern River basin. SoCal QPFs same period include 4.4 inches at Palomar Mountain and the San Jacinto Mountains, 3.5 Santa Ynez Mtns, 3.3 Mount Wilson, 2.9 San Bernardino Mtns, and 2.6 inches in the San Gabriel Mountains. Feather basin wag is 8.8 inches for 7 days ending 4AM/Fri/25 Mar. Good chance of normal Mar precip. Northern Sierra snow levels remain near 5000 feet through Sat and drop to 4000 feet on Sun/20 Mar. With a strong warm advection pattern, snow levels then rise 1000 feet per day, peaking at 7000 feet early Wed/23 Mar, before dropping to 5000 feet on Thu/24 Mar. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index stands at 34.2 inches for the season, 89 percent of average to date.
We finally have some precip to report from Washington, and hopefully lots more over the next 7 days. Washington 24-hour precip to 4AM/Thu/17 Mar includes 1.20 inches as Stampede Pass, 0.58 at Quillayute, 0.44 at Bellevue, 0.35 at Olympia, 0.33 at Bellingham Apt, 0.31 at NOAA Sandpoint and Port Angeles, 0.30 at Hoquiam, 0.24 at Kelso and Vancouver, 0.22 at Spokane, and 0.21 inches at Pullman. Oregon precip same period includes 0.42 inches at North Bend, 0.27 at Meacham, 0.26 at Eugene, 0.24 at Astoria, 0.14 at Corvallis, and 0.13 inches at Portland Apt. Idaho precip same period includes 0.38 inches at Lowell and 0.19 inches at Lewiston and Stanley.
Things are getting a bit wetter in Montana with precip somewhere in the State each of the past 6 days. Montana 144-hour precip to 4AM/Thu/17 Mar includes 1.14 inches at Georgetown Lake, 0.70 at Swan Lake, 0.67 at Potomac, 0.58 at Rogers Pass 9NNE, 0.57 at Great Falls Apt, 0.48 at Fort Benton, 0.45 at Kalispell and Lewistown, 0.39 at Glasgow, 0.35 at Missoula, 0.32 at Butte, 0.29 at Yellowtail Dam, 0.28 at Chinook, 0.25 at Bozeman Apt, 0.20 at Cut Bank, and 0.18 inches at Billings. Texas 72-hour precip to 4AM/Thu/17 Mar includes 0.94 inches at Palacios, 0.79 at Alice, 0.64 at Cotulla, 0.51 at Del Rio, 0.45 at San Antonio, 0.42 at Beaumont, 0.39 at Amarillo and New Braunfels, 0.37 at Corpus Christi, and 0.33 inches at Childress and Conroe. Precip in West Texas was all snow.
High latitude blocking over Canada favors low latitude storm track with emphasis of heavy snow past few days in New Mexico and West Texas transitioning to thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast. Blocking high eastern Canada weakens by the weekend as new blocking high develops over western Alaska and Bering Sea with increasing westerly flow and Pacific moisture undercutting Alaska block into the West Coast. Polar jet helps carve out upper low near Vancouver Island by the weekend and also helps strengthen jet max crossing California Coast this weekend. Left exit area of jet max supports mod to heavy precip NorCal and CenCal on Sat/19 Mar. This preceded by light to moderate warm advection precip spreading across most of State on Fri/18 Mar. Things turn showery PM/Sun followed by strong Pacific weather system and mod/heavy precip NorCal/CenCal on Mon/21 Mar, shifting into Southland Mon night. Trough passes with decreasing showers Tue/Wed.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=SPS&sid=REV&version=0
(Snow/traffic problems Sierra this weekend)NorCal/CenCal 120-hour orographic QPFs to 4AM/Mon/21 Mar include 3.9 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 3.8 Smith, 3.4 Feather, 2.8 Santa Lucia Range and Stanislaus, 2.6 San Joaquin, 2.5 Russian, 2.2 American, 2.0 Eel, 1.6 Arroyo Pasajero, and 1.3 inches in the Kern River basin. SoCal QPFs same period include 3.8 inches at Palomar Mountain, 3.6 San Jacinto Mtns, 2.2 San Bernardino Mtns, 2.0 Mount Wilson, 1.7 Santa Ynez Mtns, and 1.3 inches in the San Gabriel Mountains. The Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index has received 0.8 inches so far in Mar, 12 percent of the monthly total. Seasonal total is 34.2 inches, 89 percent of average to date. Our Feather basin QPF is 3.9 inches for 144 hours to 4AM/Tue/22 Mar. Last week the Governor of Washington declared a statewide drought emergency, and the Governor of Oregon declared a state of drought emergency in Klamath County. Seasonal percent normal precip includes 51 at Portland and 62 at Seattle:
http://cdec4gov.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/EXECSUM
(Executive Update/Hydrologic Conditions in CA)New Mexico 72-hour precip to 4AM/Wed/16 Mar includes 1.43 inches at Moriarty, 1.07 at Las Vegas, 0.76 at Santa Fe Apt, 0.72 at Clines Corner, 0.69 at Albuquerque Apt, 0.61 at Red River, 0.60 at Clayton, 0.47 at Gallup, 0.44 at Roswell, 0.43 at Corona, and 0.33 inches at Carlsbad. Colorado 96-hour precip to 4AM/Wed/16 Mar includes 0.82 inches at Trinidad, 0.51 at Pueblo, 0.50 at Alamosa and Springfield, 0.47 at Wheat Ridge, 0.46 at Englewood, 0.30 at Colorado Springs, 0.27 at Denver, 0.19 at Akron, and 0.13 inches at La Junta. Arizona 72-hour precip to 4AM/Wed/16 Mar includes 1.04 inches at Flagstaff (9.4 inches snow), 0.98 at Walnut Canyon (11.0 inches snow), 0.88 at Fort Valley, 0.58 at Bellemont (6.2 inches snow), 0.43 at Petrified Forest, 0.42 at Cottonwood, 0.31 at Window Rock, 0.26 at Show Low, 0.24 at Grand Canyon Apt, and 0.22 inches at Jerome. Up to 4 feet of snow fell at Coyote Creek State Park in New Mexico 13 - 15 Mar. Nice storm summary below:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/abq/quickfeatures/March2005events/March13-15thsnowstorm.htm
With clearing skies and widespread snow cover in New Mexico, record lows on Wed/16 Mar include minus 11 at Red River, minus 10 at Moriarty, minus 7 at Raton, minus 1 at Chama, 2 at Las Vegas, 6 at Santa Fe, 10 at Gallup, 12 at Tucumcari, 13 at Fort Sumner, 16 at Santa Rosa, 18 at Albuquerque Sunport, and 20 at Albuquerque Valley (tied).
Other US records: Brookings OR had a record high of 80 on Sun/13 Mar. Record highs on Mon/14 Mar include 72 at Tillamook OR and 67 at Olympia WA. Strange as it may seem, Olympia WA also tied its record low of 25 on Mon. On Tue/15 Mar, Amarillo TX had record daily snowfall of 11.2 inches and Window Rock AZ had a record low of 3.
Today in weather history: In 1870 there were 24 trains blocked by a big snowstorm between Springfield MA and Albany NY. In 1942 two tornadoes, 24 minutes apart, struck Baldwin MS resulting in 65 deaths. In 1975 a single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake OR establishing a state record. In 1986 a small but rare tornado touched down perilously close to Disneyland in Anaheim CA. In 1987 softball-size hail caused millions of dollars damage to automobiles at Del Rio TX; three persons were injured when hailstones crashed through a shopping mall skylight. In 1989 a winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the West; snow fell at a rate of 3 inches per hour in the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. In 1990 Montgomery AL was deluged with 7.75 inches of rain.
The upper level pattern features a polar vortex just southwest of Hudson Bay which continues to retrograde northwestward through AM/Wed. A new rex block forms over eastern Canada as the old blocking high over Greenland retrogrades westwared and a new closed low develops off the southeast Canadian coast. A strong short wave continues to dive south to the Southern Rockies by AM/Tue before heading east to the southern High Plains by AM/Wed. Low level flow from the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico provide plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy snow Southern/Central Rockies and southern/central High Plains through Tue evening. Surface high pressure built into the Great Basin and set a gusty wind pattern in the Golden State with diminishing winds north this afternoon but SoCal wind advisories continuing through 2PM/Tue/15 Mar. Wind gusts today were as high as 67 mph at Warm Springs in SoCal, 66 mph East Bay Hills, and 46 mph at the Oakland Apt:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=LOX&version=0 (NWS/Oxnard wind advisory)
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=SGX&version=0 (NWS/San Diego wind advisory)
High latitude blocking in Canada is bringing below normal temps to much of the US as the southern stream becomes the most active storm track this week with wet weather from the Southern Rockies eastward through the Southeast where heavy rains are likely. Enough high latitude blocking sets up over the Bering Sea and western Alaska later this week to allow a modest breakthrough of westerlies with, of course, modest precipitation expectations in California. Expect the arrival of light to locally moderate rain much of the State Fri/Sat, 18 - 19 Mar. Latest 18Z GFS model shows more impressive surface system approaching the OR coast with significant precip into NorCal/CenCal and Pacific Northwest Mon night and Tue/22 Mar, with showers on Wed up and down West Coast. NorCal snow levels near 5000 feet next week. Our initial wag for Feather basin is 0.5 inch liquid Thu/Fri and about 1-inch Tue/Wed next week. Fantasy model territory keeps QPF from being larger next week.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index has picked up only 0.8 inches in Mar, 12 percent of the monthly average. Season has received 34.2 inches, 90 percent of average to date. This compares to 42.3 inches this date last year, 112 percent of average to date. But by this time last year things had turned dry and unseasonably warm. Back to this year, the strong upper level ridge and record warm temps propelled the full natural flow to increase by 80 percent over the past week from the Merced south through the Kern basins according to Steve Nemeth/DWR. These flows should gradually back off this week as upper level heights and temps are back to near normal levels for this time of year. Check out the link to the California Climate Data Archive with my summary of California weather in Feb 2005 and a really nice discussion of tornadoes in California and the US by Laura Edwards/Western Regional Climate Center .... and some really neat 21 Feb tornado photos in the Sacramento area:
http://www.calclim.dri.edu/climatewatch/climatewatch.html
Record high temps in the West on Sun/13 Mar include 69 at Crescent City CA and 72 at Tillamook OR (tied). California record highs on Sat/12 Mar include 80 in downtown Sacramento (tied), 75 at Montague, and 74 at Mount Shasta. Oregon record highs on Sat include 72 at Troutdale, 70 at Tillamook, and 67 at Astoria (tied). The most impressive records from this mini hot spell were the all-time monthly record highs (and old records) on Fri/11 Mar with 89 at Salinas (88 on 26 Mar 1969), 88 at Oakland (85 on 10 Mar 2004), 87 at San Francisco (86 on 18 Mar 1914), 87 at San Jose (85 on 16 Mar 2004), and 85 at Richmond (tied with 85 on 10 Mar 2004). Other California daily record highs on Fri/11 Mar include 88 at Gilroy and Ukiah, 87 at Napa, 85 at at Sacramento, 84 at Red Bluff and Santa Rosa, 83 at Moffett Field, SFO, and Stockton, 81 at Modesto (tied), 80 at Sac Exec Apt (tied), 79 at Santa Cruz (tied), 78 at Oakland Apt, and 74 at Montague and Mount Shasta.
Oregon record highs on Fri/11 Mar include 80 at Medford, 77 at Pendleton, 76 at Hillsboro, Redmond, and Troutdale, 75 at Portland (tied) and Portland Apt, 74 at The Dalles, 73 at McMinnville and Salem, 72 at Eugene, 70 at Klamath Falls and Meacham, and 69 at Pendleton Apt. Washington record highs on Fri/11 Mar include 76 at Hanford and Vancouver (tied), 72 at Walla Walla and Yakima, 70 at Moses Lake and Olympia, 69 at Ephrata, 68 at Wenatchee, 67 at Omak, 66 a Pullman, and 65 at SEATAC Apt (tied). Idaho record highs on Fri/11 Mar include 77 at Riggins, 72 at Dworshak Fish Hatchery, 69 at Elk City, 68 at Shoup, 67 at Grangeville, and 50 at Mullan Pass. Montana record highs on Fri/11 Mar include 73 at Billings Apt, 72 at Miles City Apt (tied), 68 at Missoula Apt, and 65 at Butte and Kalispell. Wyoming record highs on Fri/11 Mar include 72 at Sheridan and 67 at Casper (tied).
California record highs on Thu/10 Mar include 84 in downtown Sacramento, 81 at San Rafael and Stockton, and 68 at Sandberg (tied). Oregon record highs on Thu/10 Mar include 74 at Hillsboro, Monument 2, and Portland, 71 at Prineville, 69 at Eugene (tied) and La Grande, 68 at Cove, Elgin, Madras 2N, and Pendleton Apt, 67 at Moro and Pendleton Apt, 66 at Bend, 65 at Burns, and 63 at Meacham. Washington record highs on Thu/10 Mar include 73 at Dallesport Apt, 71 at Whitman Mission, 70 at Dayton 1WNW, 69 at Walla Walla Apt, 66 at Moses Lake Apt, Omak, and NWS/Sandpoint, 65 at Bellingham, Ephrata, and Wenatchee (tied), 61 at Stampede, and 60 at Quillayute.
Other US records: Record daily snowfall on Fri/11 Mar includes 4.9 inches at Muskegon MI, 4.8 inches at Marquette MI, and 1.5 inches at Bridgeport CT. Bangor ME also had a record low of minus 12 on Fri. Record highs on Sat/12 Mar include 85 at Chanute KS, 82 at Joplin MO (tied), and 76 at Russell KS (tied). Other records on Sat include record daily precip of 0.49 inches at Islip NY and record low of minus 15 at Marquette MI. Record highs on Sun/13 Mar include 99 at McAllen TX and 94 at Corpus Christi TX. Record lows on Mon/14 Mar include minus 8 at Gaylord MI and 5 at Muskegon MI. Eureka CA also had a record high of 68 on Mon/14 Mar.
Today in weather history: In 1870 the term "blizzard" was first applied to a storm which produced heavy snow and high winds in Iowa and Minnesota. In 1944 a single storm brought a record 21.6 inches of snow to Salt Lake City UT. In 1960 northern Georgia was between snowstorms. Gainesville GA received 17 inches of snow during the month and reported at least a trace of snow on the ground on 22 days. Snow was on roofs in Hartwell GA 2 - 29 Mar. In 1987 a powerful storm in the western US produced 15 inches of snow in the Lake Tahoe basin of CA/NV; thunderstorms in the Sacramento Valley spawned a tornado which hit a turkey farm near Corning. In 1993 the "Storm of the Century" was exiting the East Coast, leaving record low temps in its wake from Texas to Florida to the Great Lakes. In 1999 the fourth longest streak of sub-freezing days in the history of Fairbanks AK came to an end at 139 days.
Ridge west, trough east pattern continues next couple days before pattern change commences and we have cooling Sun/Mon into next week. Ridging strongest Thu/Fri this week for clear skies and record high temps Sac Valley and very warm high temps most of state. Record high is 81 today and Fri in downtown Sacramento. Highest US temp Wed was 93 at Palm Springs and Thermal. Should see similar warmth Thu/Fri. Also should see good warmup on coast as offshore flow peaks today with northeast winds gusting to 35 mph in the Bay Area hills. Back in the cold country, strong short waves each day or two are chasing southeast through High Plains and Great Lakes with interaction from Atlantic Ocean as systems turn northeast up the Coast. First one brings snow to New England on Fri with heavier snow and strong winds on Sat as second short wave helps rapidly deepen a surface low off Cape Cod. Another snowstorm possible in New England late next week.
Scenario for CA wetness late next week returned on models today after looking not-so-wet on GFS models yesterday. Well advertised pattern change is still on track with retrogression of high latitude blocking from southern Greenland now to southern Alaska by middle of next week. Upper high actually cuts off east of Anchorage by Wed/16 Mar. GFS 12Z model drops short wave energy southward with upper low cutting off near Vancouver Island by Thu/17 Mar. Pacific short wave energy then drives straight eastward for good precip into NorCal and Oregon PM/Thu and Fri of next week, followed by additional Pacific weather systems hitting same areas Sun/Mon and Wed/Thu of the following week, 20/21 and 23/24 Mar. Only relatively weak frontal zones drop into Southland for periods of light to moderate rainfall. Such systems would produce periods of moderate to heavy precip in NorCal and CenCal late next week through the following week. Confidence limited by model precip still 7 days away.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index has received 0.8 inches so far in Mar, 12 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total has reached 34.2 inches, 93 percent of average to date. Season a year ago stood at 42.3 inches, but it was rainless 6 - 24 Mar 2004 with unseasonably warm temps. Total Mar 2004 precip was 2.2 inches, 32 percent of average. Hope to do better in Mar 2005 as we need to top off the season with a few more good storms. Executive Update from Matt Winston:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/EXECSUM
California record highs on Wed/9 Mar include 77 at San Rafael and 71 at Mount Shasta. Oregon record highs on Wed/9 Mar include 76 at Hermiston 2 NW, 73 at Monument 2, Pendleton Exp Stn, and Roseburg, 72 at Eugene (tied), 71 at Troutdale (tied), 70 at Elgin (tied), Hillsboro (tied), Portland, Redmond, and Union Exp Stn, 69 at Condon (tied) and La Grande, 68 at Burns, Cove (tied), and Moro, 67 at Klamath Falls (tied), and 62 at Meacham. Washington record highs on Wed/9 Mar include 76 at Dallesport Apt, Kennewick, and Sunnyside, 75 at Hanford and Whitman Mission, 72 at Walla Walla (tied), and 64 at Bickleton (tied). Other Western record highs include 67 at Duchesne UT, 64 at Missoula and Polson MT, 62 at Phillipsburg MT, 56 at Stanley Apt ID, and 47 at Brian Head.
Oregon record highs on Tue/8 Mar include 75 at Pendleton, 73 at Monument 2, 72 at Hermiston 2 NW, 71 at John Day, Madras 2 N (tied), and Pendleton Exp Stn, 70 at Bend City (tied) and Moro, 69 at Union Exp Stn, 68 at Elgin and Mitchell 2 E (tied), 66 at La Grande, and 62 at Meacham. Washington record highs on Tue/8 Mar include 75 at Dallesport Apt, 73 at Whitman Mission, 72 at Kennewick and Sunnyside, 70 at Olympia (tied) and Yakima Apt (tied), 69 at NOAA Sandpoint, 68 at Ephrata, Moses Lake Apt (tied), and Wenatchee Apt, 67 at SEATAC Apt, 65 at Omak (tied), and 61 at Stampede Pass. Idaho record highs on Tue/8 Mar include 72 at Dworshak Fish Hatchery, 69 at Lewiston (tied), 68 at Boise, 64 at Challis Apt, and 62 at Pierce. Montana record highs on Tue/8 Mar include 64 at Missoula Apt, 61 at Potomac, 57 at Butte (tied) and 32 SSE Libby (tied), and 55 at Whitefish (tied). Wendover UT also tied its record high of 64 on Tue/8 Mar.
Other US records: Record daily precip on Tue/8 Mar includes 1.71 inches at Caribou ME, 1.42 inches at Bangor ME, and 1.26 inches at Houlton ME. Newark NJ had record daily snowfall of 1.9 inches on Tue/8 Mar. On Wed/9 Mar West Palm Beach FL had record daily precip of 3.15 inches, and Islip NY had a record low of 10. Duluth MN had record daily snowfall of 3.9 inches on Thu/10 Mar.
Jordan Fisher Smith has just published his new book, "Nature Noir", which chronicles his 14 years as a ranger on a 48-mile stretch of the American River canyons, long condemned to be inundated by Auburn Dam. By the time Smith arrived on the American River, former residents had been bought out or had their residences condemned by the USBR, and their homes, mining cabins, and ranches were being burned to the ground as the river's canyons were readied to go underwater. But the dam's completion was delayed, and what remained was a giant vacant lot of 42,000 rugged acres, which in its former owners' absence, became a dangerous free zone for armed squatters, gold prospectors, and fugitives from the law. The dam's troubles continued, and over the next decade three dozen people perished on Smith's beat in accidents, murders, and suicides.
Intending to stay only a year, Smith emerged from the American River canyons 14 years later, his body wracked by Lyme disease he'd contracted from a tick bite. Unable to forget what he'd witnessed there, he spent another four years researching the river's human and natural history. The American River has survived attempts to dam it, and Jordan Fisher Smith has published a book about his experiences that is earning praise from some of America's greatest writers. I was pleased that Jordan Fisher Smith asked me to help him with the portion of Chapter 2 dealing with weather events before and during the flood of Feb 1986. I provided written descriptions of the storm, discussed the storm with him, and reviewed portions of Chapter 2. Take a look at this really neat web site outlining the author, details of the book, book tour, and recent reviews. Smith will be at Borders Sacramento, 2339 Fair Oaks Blvd, this evening at 7PM. Check the book tour for his many West Coast stops.
It is a nation of contrasts today in the weather world with snow and high winds in New England and severe clear with unseasonable warmth in the Golden State. Some peak high temps today include 90 at Palm Springs, 88 at Death Valley, 83 at King City, and 82 at Chico. Expect high temps mid 70s to mid 80s through Fri at interior valleys and where offshore flow dominates. Look for some more 90s in the deserts and Inland Empire. Onshore flow should return for some cooling on Sat and a lot more cooling on Sun and Mon as Canadian air drops south through the Pacific Northwest into California. Still look for retrogression of upper level features next week but at a slower pace with rain into the Pac Northwest and Northern California by PM/Thu/17 Mar and snow in the Cascades, continuing Fri and Sat. Models show only light precip into SoCal late next week.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
Record high temps in the West: Oregon record highs on Mon/7 Mar include 72 at The Dalles, 71 at Monument, Pendleton, and Portland (tied), 69 at Eugene, Heppner, Pendleton Apt, and Prineville (tied), 68 at John Day (tied), 67 at Elgin, 66 at Union, 65 at Condon (tied), 64 at Cove, and 60 at Meacham. Washington record highs on Mon/7 Mar include 75 at Sunnyside, 74 at Kennewick, 73 at Whitman Mission (tied), 72 at Moses Lake Apt, 71 at Ephrata, 70 at Walla Walla (tied) and Wenatchee, 67 at Yakima, 66 at Olympia Apt, 63 at Omak, 62 at Pullman, and 58 at Stampede Pass. Montana record highs on Mon/7 Mar include 67 at Thompson Falls (tied), 61 at Drummond, 59 at Polson, and 52 at West Glacier (tied). Idaho record highs on Mon/7 Mar include 69 at Lewiston and 68 at Shoup.
Today in Weather History: In 1717 on Fishers Island in Long Island Sound, 1200 sheep were discovered to have been buried under a snow drift for 4 weeks. When finally uncovered, 100 sheep were still alive. In 1909 Brinkley, Arkansas was directly in the path of an F4 tornado during the evening. Eight hundred buildings and homes were destroyed in the town and several entire families were wiped out. Forty nine fatalities were attributed to the twister along its 15-mile path. Injuries numbered 600. At least 6 other major tornadoes touched down in Arkansas that day, killing an additional 18 people. In 1972 a wind gust of 207 miles per hour was recorded at Thule AFB Greenland and undoubtedly created deadly wind chill and whiteout conditions. In 1987 the temp at Detroit MI fell 51 degrees from 74F to 23F for a 24-hour record temp fall in the Motor City.
A positive PNA (Pacific/North American) pattern and negative AO (Atlantic Oscillation)/NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) patterns will continue over the Northern Hemisphere through this week. This means a North American trough east/ridge west pattern which is as dry as you can get for the Left Coast. The ground hog was correct when he saw his shadow with continuation of a cold, snowy pattern in the East and cool and rainy in the Southeast the next 7 days. Southern stream short wave energy and a strong cold front are combining to set off several hairy-looking lines of thunderstorms this evening in the Southeast. The toughest line is moving through a tornado watch box in North Florida with the line east of Tallahassee (Go Seminoles!) by 9PM/Mon. In our neighborhood, look for severe clear and warmer afternoons next few days with a few patches of early morning fog. This morning's commute was through fog from Vacaville to Davis, a little surprising this late in season.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none
(US radar loop)The hangup in the upper air pattern recently has been the tenacious cold vortex in eastern Canada and blocking high near southern Greenland. Besides extending winter well into Mar for the Northeast US, this pattern is cold and snowy in much of Europe. UKMET model has one more hurrah for Europe with a final surge of very cold air this weekend into the UK with 500 mb trajectories from the North Pole directly over London. All models suggest a major pattern shift this weekend through next week. High latitude blocking works westward from southern Greenland across far northern Canada to the Beaufort Sea by next week. The cold trough over the East begins to fill (weaken) by Sat/12 Mar and retrograde back to the High Plains by Tue/15 Mar. West Coast ridge breaks down Sun/Mon with onshore flow and cooling for Golden State. Models show cold surges of arctic air into Pac Northwest this weekend as ridge strengthens Alaska and upper trough deepens SW Can/Pac Northwest.
Latest GFS 18Z model shows surface low deepening off Puget Sound by Tue/15 Mar with precip and very low snow levels Pac Northwest Tue/Wed. Some of this cold and precip works into NorCal Wed/16 Mar followed by good warm advection pattern and more significant precip with rising snow levels NorCal/CenCal Wed night and Thu next week. Wet pattern includes SoCal Fri/Sat of next week as strong westerlies develop and drop southward with increasing subtropical moisture involvement. Caution here is that we are dabbling in fantasy portion of the models, but scenario of events just described makes sense and has decent continuity from discussion in my briefing here at DWR last Fri. Next briefing here is on Thu/10 Mar. Looks like good chance of wetness in the Golden State by middle of next week. Could be interesting.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Sat/5 Mar includes 1.79 inches at Fashion Valley in San Diego County, 0.95 at Mount Umunhum (Santa Cruz Mtns), 0.94 at San Sevaine (San Bernardino Cty), 0.86 at Opids Camp (LA Cty), 0.82 at Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), 0.79 at San Marcos Pass (Santa Barbara Cty), 0.55 at Big Sur, 0.52 at Nordhoff Ridge (Ventura Cty), 0.48 at St Helena (Napa), 0.44 at Kaiser Point (San Joaquin), 0.40 at Quaking Aspen (Tule), 0.35 at Palomar Mountain, 0.32 at New Melones (Stanislaus), 0.29 at Big Meadows (Kings) and Case Mountain (Kaweah), 0.24 at Whispering Pines (Clear Lake), 0.20 at Pascoes (Kern), and 0.16 inches at Telegraph Hill in the Tuolumne River basin.
SoCal 48-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Sun/6 Mar includes 1.68 inches at Montgomery Field (San Diego), 1.49 at Miramar, 1.41 at San Diego Lindbergh Field, 1.05 at Ramona Apt, 0.89 at Burbank, 0.78 at Barstow-Daggett, 0.66 at Santa Barbara Apt, 0.54 at Los Angeles, 0.53 at Baker, 0.52 at Santa Maria, 0.47 at Mount Wilson, 0.41 at Van Nuys, 0.40 at Sandberg, 0.39 at Mitchell Caverns, 0.37 at Northridge, 0.31 at Mountain Pass, Oceanside, and Oxnard, 0.26 at Julian, 0.23 at Palmdale, 0.22 at San Rafael, 0.21 at Blythe, 0.20 at Fullerton, 0.19 at Eagle Mountain, 0.18 at Twentynine Palms, 0.17 at Campo, 0.13 at John Wayne Apt and Needles, 0.11 inches at Chino Apt, Riverside Apt, and San Luis Obispo Apt, and 0.09 inches at Paso Robles.
NorCal/CenCal 24-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Sat/5 Mar includes 0.62 inches at Monterey, 0.61 at Visalia, 0.51 at Oakland Apt, 0.40 at Hanford Apt, 0.27 at Bakersfield, 0.26 at Porterville, 0.25 at San Francisco, 0.23 at San Jose, 0.22 at Eureka, Livermore, and San Rafael, 0.18 at SFO and Vacaville, 0.17 at Madera, 0.14 at Arcata and Fresno, 0.13 at Fairfield and Mariposa, 0.11 at Stockton Apt, and 0.08 inches at Lemoore NAS and Merced.
Redding Apt had a record high of 81 on Sun/6 Mar. Oregon record highs on Sun/6 Mar include 72 at The Dalles, 70 at Monument 2 (tied), 69 at Moro, 68 at Prineville (tied) and Redmond, 67 at Madras, 65 at Elgin, 64 at Klamath Falls, North Bend, and Union (tied), 63 at Cove, and 59 at Meacham. Washington record highs on Sun/6 Mar include 70 at Whitman Mission, 69 at Sunnyside, 68 at Ellensburg, 67 at Olympia (tied) and Yakima, 65 at Moses Lake and Wenatchee, 63 at Ephrata and NOAA Sandpoint, 61 at Omak (tied), and 60 at Bickleton. Washington record highs on Sat/5 Mar include 62 at Ephrata, 61 at Moses Lake (tied), Omak (tied), and Wenatchee, and 59 at NOAA Sandpoint. Washington record highs on Fri/4 Mar include 62 at Moses Lake (tied), 62 at Omak, and 61 at Wenatchee. Spokane WA had its driest Feb on record with a total of only 0.04 inches. Previous record was 0.09 inches in 1929. Normal Feb precip at Spokane is 1.51 inches.
Other US records: Record daily snowfall on Mon/28 Feb includes 6.0 inches at HoughtonnLake MI, 5.9 at Newark NJ, 5.3 at Alpena MI, 4.8 at Pittsburgh PA, 4.5 at Williamsport PA, 4.1 at Dulles Intl Apt VA, 3.5 at Muskegon MI, and 1.5 inches at Jackson KY (tied). Record daily precip on Mon/28 Feb includes 0.97 inches at Jackson KY and 0.53 inches at Pittsburgh PA. Record daily snowfall on Tue/1 Mar includes 10.8 inches Marquette MI, 10.7 at Albany NY, 7.6 at Burlington VT, 6.1 at Boston MA, 6.0 at Pittsburgh PA, 5.6 at Buffalo NY, 4.0 at South Bend IN, 3.4 at Muskegon MI, 2.3 at Grand Rapids, and 1.5 inches at Jackson KY. Total snowfall this season at Boston has reached 78.2 inches, 8th highest snowfall total since 1892. Delta UT set a daily precip record with 0.43 inches on Tue/1 Mar. Daily rainfall records on Wed/2 Mar include 1.12 inches at Galveston TX and 1.03 inches at Austin/Bergstrom TX. Islip NY tied its record low of 22 on Thu/3 Mar.
Record California precip on Fri/4 Mar includes 1.12 inches at San Diego Lindbergh Field and 0.43 inches at Ontario Apt. A pot full of record highs on Sun/6 Mar include 74 at Des Moines IA, 73 at Ames IA (tied), Cedar Rapids IA, and Moline IL, 72 at Burlington IA (tied), Marshalltown IA, Ottumwa IA (tied), and Waterloo IA (tied), 71 at Mason City IA (tied), 67 at Dwarshak Fish Hatchery ID, 65 at Thompson Falls MT (tied), 63 at Superior MT, 60 at Polson MT, 59 at Drummond MT and Missoula MT (tied), 58 at Whitefish MT, and 57 at Kalispell MT (tied).
Today in weather history: In 1717 the "Great Snow", a composite of 4 winter storms to hit the East in 9 days, finally came to an end. Snow depths averaged 60 inches following the storm. Up to 4 feet of snow fell in the Boston area, and snow drifts 25 feet high were reported around Dorchester MA. In 1932 a severe coastal storm set barometric pressure records from Virginia to New England; Block Island RI reported a record low barometric pressure reading of 28.20 inches. In 1990 a major ice storm left much of Iowa under a thick coat of ice. It was the worst ice storm in at least 25 years for Iowa. Up to 2 inches of ice coated much of western and central Iowa, with 3 inches of ice reported in Crawford and Carroll Counties. As much as 5 inches of ice was reported on some electrical lines. The ice downed 78 towers in a 17-mile stretch of a high voltage feeder near Boone IA costing 3 electric utilities 15 million dollars. Total storm damage was more than 50 million dollars.
Upper low moving southeast along the South Coast and afternoon heating set off thunderstorms in the Southland mountains, High Desert, and southern San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. Doppler radar earlier indicated a thunderstorm and possible tornado in the High Desert. At 5PM/Fri a flash flood warning was issued when flash flooding was indicated by radar from a nearly stationary thunderstorm over central San Bernardino County, about 37 miles northeast of Big Bear City and just north of State Route 247. NWS/San Diego has issued a special weather statement for the possibility of funnel clouds and brief tornadoes through Sat in the Southland east and southeast of LA County as the cold, upper level low moves southeast through the area. Severe thunderstorms were also reported this afternoon in the southern San Joaquin Valley.
Another portion of the upper trough farther north had some special dynamics today, bringing moderate to locally heavy rain to portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Some 24-hour precip totals to 4PM/Fri include 1.22 inches at Santa Cruz, 1.15 at Salinas, 0.94 at Carmel Valley, and 0.87 inches at Oakland Apt. In the Southland, 12-hour remote sensor precip totals to 4PM/Fri include 1.11 inches at Hollywood Reservoir, 1.15 at Eaton Wash, 1.03 at Refugio, 0.91 at San Sevaine, and 0.82 inches at Opids Camp. Except for portions of the Southland mentioned above, expect clearing skies and warmer temps on Sat across the State. Look for fair skies Sun through Fri of next week with high temps in the 70s at lower elevations except for some 80s South and Central Coasts. Retrogression of upper air features may lead to precip opportunities week after next.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 48-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Fri/4 Mar includes 0.93 inches at Mount Umunhum in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 0.68 at Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), 0.60 at San Marcos Pass (Santa Barbara County), 0.58 at Kettleman Hills (San Joaquin), 0.36 at Greek Store (American) and Venado (Russian), 0.32 at Orick (Redwood Creek), 0.30 at Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne), 0.28 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen) and Gasquet (Smith), 0.24 at Calaveras (Stanislaus), Hoopa (Trinity), and St Helena (Napa), 0.20 at Graveyard Meadow (San Joaquin), 0.18 at La Porte (Feather), 0.16 at Nordhoff Ridge (Ventura County) and Tiger Creek (Mokelumne), and 0.11 inches at Ruth Lake in the Mad River drainage.
California 48-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Fri/4 Mar includes 0.73 inches at Lemoore NAS, 0.53 at Hanford Apt, 0.44 at San Jose, 0.43 at Livermore, 0.42 at Crescent City, 0.41 at Blue Canyon, 0.40 at Santa Maria, 0.37 at Oakland Apt, 0.33 at Monterey and SFO, 0.30 at San Luis Obispo Apt, 0.27 at Oxnard, 0.25 at Fresno, 0.24 at Arcata, Eureka, and Modesto, 0.23 at Santa Barbara Apt, 0.22 at Mariposa and Merced, 0.20 at Morro Bay and San Francisco, 0.18 at San Rafael, 0.16 at Visalia, 0.15 at Ukiah, 0.14 at Madera and Stockton, 0.12 at Fairfield, 0.10 at Sacramento, 0.08 at Long Beach and Los Angeles, and 0.06 inches at Bakersfield and LAX.
Unseasonably cold weather in the Northeast is expected to continue through this weekend with a generous amount of snow tonight and Tue from the mountains of North Carolina northeastward into New England. Many NE schools will be closed on Tue; some schools did not open today. Storm track across the Gulf of Mexico into Florida was very active over the weekend with a quick segue from winter drought to late winter wetness with flooding on the Manatee River in west central Florida ater 5.17 inches on rain on Sun/27 Feb in Bradenton FL. Precip deficit since 1 Oct in Bradenton dropped from 6.23 to 1.05 inches. That is a fast turnaround. Much-needed rainfall in Oregaon past 24 hours was as much as 0.53 inches at Brookings and 0.50 inches at North Bend. Weekend precip results were much better in Northern California with as much as 2 to 3 inches at several locations (precip numbers below). Intensive drought Northwest US; situation improving Southwest US in this link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ (US Seasonal Drought Outlook through May 2005)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ (Revised Monthly Outlook Mar 2005)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off_index.html (Seasonal Outlook Mar - May 2005)
Nice 0.5 inch rains I-80 corridor Sun/Sun night will be followed by weaker short wave energy I-80 corridor late Tue and Tue night for some 0.25 inch precip totals. Look for 0.5 to 0.75 inches at wettest locations in mountains of NorCal, beginning Tue afternoon North Coast with gusty south winds. Behind this system, Wed should be another fine spring day with lots of sunshine. Situation gets more complex with approach of sharp upper trough PM/Thu/3 Mar. Upper system cuts off and drifts southeast down the Sierra on Fri, ending up over Southeast Desert on Sat/5 Mar. Showers North Coast PM/Thu spread across NorCal and CenCal Thu night and Fri with slight chance of showers SoCal Fri/Fri night. Might be enough cold air aloft for instability and chance of thunderstorms in the State on Fri. Canadian model cuts off low with main precip threat remaining offshore later in week. Navy NOGAPS and UKMET models show better chance for SoCal precip on Fri compared to GFS model.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
NorCal/CenCal orographic model 120-hour QPFs to 4AM/Sat/5 Mar include 2.00 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 1.4 Smith, 1.3 Eel, 1.2 Santa Lucia Range/Shasta, 1.0 Feather, 0.9 Arroyo Pasajero, 0.8 American/Stanislaus, 0.6 San Joaquin, and 0.3 inches in the Kern River basin. SoCal QPFs same period include 0.7 inches in the Santa Ynez Mtns, 0.5 Mount Wilson, 0.4 San Gabriel Mtns, 0.2 Palomar Mountain/San Jacinto Mtns, and 0.1 inches in the San Bernardino Mtns. The Northern Sierra 8-station Precip Index picked up 1.1 inches of precip over the weekend for a Feb total of 4.3 inches, 54 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is up to 33.3 inches, 96 percent of average to date. The Feather basin picked up 0.9 inches of precip over the weekend. Our prediction for the Feather basin is 0.3 inches on Tue night and 0.6 inches on Thu night and Fri. California looks pretty dry next weekend and the following workweek.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 48-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Mon/28 Feb includes 3.29 inches at Slate Creek (Shasta drainage), 2.84 at Clear Creek, 2.32 at Venado (Russian), 2.31 at Trinity Guard Station, 1.95 at Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), 1.88 at Honeydew (Mattole), 1.86 at Big Sur, 1.80 at Whispering Pines (Clear Lake), 1.66 at St Helena (Naka), 1.55 at Mount Madonna (Santa Cruz Mtns), 1.50 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 1.47 at De Sabla (Feather), 1.45 at Calaveras (Stanislaus), 1.40 at Telegraph Hill (Tuolumne), 1.28 at Leggett (Eel), 1.27 at Tiger Creek PH (Mokelumne), 1.24 at Sly Park (American), 1.08 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen) and Nature Point (San Joaquin), 0.98 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 0.84 at Gasquet (Smith), 0.75 at Yosemite Valley (Merced), 0.54 at Alpine Meadows (Tahoe), 0.40 at Orick (Redwood Creek), 0.28 at Big Meadows (Kings), 0.19 at Atwell Camp (Kaweah), 0.18 at Giant Forest (Tule), and 0.13 inches at Crabtree Meadows in the Kern River basin.
California 48-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Mon/28 Feb includes 1.63 inches at Mount Shasta, 1.30 at San Rafael and Ukiah, 1.04 at Mariposa, 1.03 at Red Bluff, 0.99 at San Jose, 0.95 at Oroville, 0.91 at San Francisco, 0.83 at Redding, 0.74 at Crescent City, 0.73 at SFO and San Luis Obispo Apt, 0.59 at Stockton, 0.58 at Sacramento, 0.57 at Eureka and Oakland, 0.56 at Fairfield, 0.55 at Marysville, 0.53 at Modesto, 0.52 at Arcata, 0.48 at Madera, 0.47 at Monterey, 0.44 at Morro Bay, 0.42 at Merced, 0.35 at Paso Robles and San Simeon, 0.32 at South Lake Tahoe, 0.29 at Travis AFB, 0.22 at Fresno, and 0.19 inches at Hanford.
Additional California 48-hour coop/city precip to 10AM/Mon/28 Feb includes 2.45 inches at Shasta Dam, 1.39 at Paradise, 1.28 at Groveland, 1.19 at Sonora, 1.11 at Grass Valley, 1.01 at San Andreas, 0.93 at Chico, 0.89 at Oakhurst, 0.80 at Blue Canyon, 0.65 at Chester, 0.64 at Grant Grove, 0.63 at Lodgepole, 0.54 at Quincy, 0.52 at Lemon Cove, 0.50 at Burney and Vacaville, 0.49 at Pismo Beach, 0.42 at Lompoc, 0.39 at Markleeville, 0.36 at Tahoe City, 0.34 at Mammoth Lakes, 0.27 at Los Banos, 0.26 at Willows 6W, 0.22 at Truckee Apt, 0.20 at Kettleman City and Lee Vining, 0.16 at Portola, 0.15 at Wasco, 0.14 at Bridgeport, and 0.09 inches at Delano.
Lingering instability from old upper level devil over the Southwest has helped produce showers/isolated thunderstorms in the Sierra and Coastal Mountains with snow levels near 4000 feet and some chain controls on Highway 50 this afternoon. Activity dies off soon. Blocking pattern with split flow off the West Coast shifts eastward next couple days to allow some consolidated westerlies to bring precip to the North and Central Coasts Sat night and to most of NorCal and CenCal Sun and Sun night. Only light anounts expected in SoCal. Initial modest short wave energy Sat night/Sun followed by stronger short wave with some good precip totals NorCal Sun night, with precip ending most areas Mon forenoon. Should be dry PM/Mon into first half Tue. Then expect warm advection precip pattern, mostly light rain, PM/Tue and Wed. Then ridging brings dry weather to most of West Coast Fri/4 Mar - Wed/9 Mar. Estimate 2.1 inches liquid Feather next 5 days, same as our estimate on Wed.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
NorCal/CenCal orographic model 120-hour QPFs to 4AM/Wed/2 Mar include 3.1 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 2.8 Santa Lucia Range, 2.4 Eel, 2.2 Russian, 2.0 Feather/Smith, 1.8 Shasta Dam, 1.7 Stanislaus, 1.6 Arroyo Pasajero, 1.3 American, 0.8 San Joaquin, and 0.3 inches in the Kern River basin. SoCal QPFs same period includes 0.8 inches in the Santa Ynez Mountains, 0.2 Mount Wilson and Palomar Mountain, and 0.1 inches in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel, and San Jacinto Mountains. With no precip the past several days, the Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index has 3.2 inches so far in Feb, 40 percent of the monthly average. Season is 32.2 inches, 95 percent of average to date. Last year this date, Feb total was 11.1 inches, 139 percent of the monthly average. Season to date last year was 38.1 inches, 113 percent of average. Here are some nice links about SoCal wetness, upper Colorado basin drought, and Sacramento tornado photo gallery:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-soak25feb25,0,6713342.story?coll=la-home-headlines (107 inches rain Opids Camp)
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-drought24feb24,0,6996249.story?coll=la-home-headlines
http://www.sacbee.com/content/gallery/projects/febtornado/photos/story/12421338p-13277708c.html (Sac tornadoes)
SoCal remote sensor 48-hour precip to 4AM/Fri/25 Feb includes 0.83 inches at Burns Canyon (San Bernardino County), 0.76 at Palomar Mountain, 0.39 at Mill Creek (LA Cty), 0.35 at Big Bear, 0.23 at Case Mountain (Kaweah), 0.12 at Cachuma Dam, and 0.10 inches at Giant Forest (Tule). SoCal coop/city precip same period includes 0.99 inches at Twentynine Palms, 0.73 at Crystal Lake, 0.64 at Mount Wilson, 0.60 at Blythe and Pomona, 0.47 at Rialto, 0.45 at Thermal, 0.39 at China Lake, Eagle Mountain, and Julian, 0.38 at Beaumont, 0.35 at John Wayne Apt, 0.29 at San Diego, 0.28 at Santa Ana Radar, 0.25 at Palmdale and Riverside Apt, 0.24 at Campo and Sandberg, 0.23 at Palm Springs, 0.21 at Apple Valley and Ontario, 0.20 at Chino, 0.19 at Fullerton Apt and Imperial, 0.18 at Long Beach, 0.16 at Needles, and 0.14 inches at Mountain Pass.
Closed low has weakened and moved slowly eastward today and is near Yuma AZ this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms were seen in the Sierra, Central Coast Mountains, and much of the Southland this afternoon, with a diminishing trend this evening. It was another really nice day in the Central Valley. Continue the chance of showers on Thu in the Southeast Deserts of California and eastward into AZ. Showers are more active north and east of closed low this evening with snow falling at Flagstaff AZ and down to 6500 feet. Models still support meaningful westerlies and short wave energy which should bring periods of precip, some moderate, into NorCal and CenCal Sun through Tue. Frontal precip band shifts into Southland for wet period Mon through Wed. Models show additional light precip most of State about Fri of next week. We expect 2.1 inches precip Feather basin Sun - Fri of next week. Will hit all QPFs Fri. Season third wettest LA and San Diego.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=16
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Wed/23 Feb includes 2.48 inches at Palomar Mountain, 2.32 at Opids Camp (Los Angeles Cty), 2.20 at Lytle Creek RS (San Bernardino), 1.26 at Big Bear, 1.15 at San Marcos Pass (Santa Barbara Cty), 0.64 at Nordhoff Ridge (Ventura Cty), 0.29 at Pascoes (Kern), 0.24 at Stanislaus Meadow, 0.16 at Huntington Lake (San Joaquin), 0.14 at Big Meadows (Kings) and Quaking Aspen (Tule), 0.13 at Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), and 0.12 inches at Atwell Camp (Kaweah).
California 24-hour coop/city precip to 4AM/Wed/23 Feb includes 1.71 inches at Mount Wilson, 1.56 at Ramona Apt, 1.55 at Long Beach, 1.53 at Oceanside Apt, 1.51 at Chino Apt, 1.50 at Pomona, 1.44 at John Wayne Apt, 1.20 at Vandenberg AFB, 1.07 at Santa Monica Apt, 1.05 at Santa Barbara Apt, 1.02 at Fullerton Apt, 1.00 at downtown Los Angeles and Ontario Apt, 0.94 at Riverside Apt, 0.91 at Rialto, 0.90 at San Diego and Van Nuys, 0.88 at Burbank, 0.74 at Julian, 0.73 at Sandberg, 0.72 at Barstow-Daggett, 0.65 at Mojave, 0.57 at Oxnard and Santa Maria, 0.48 at Campo, 0.47 at Mountain Pass, 0.39 at China Lake NAS, 0.38 at Palmdale, 0.28 at Markleeville and Needles, 0.26 at Palm Springs and Trona, 0.25 at Delano and Truckee Apt, 0.22 at Apple Valley, 0.20 at Lompoc and Wasco, 0.19 at Blythe, 0.16 at Death Valley, 0.15 at Bridgeport, 0.12 at San Luis Obispo, 0.10 at Tahoe City and Thermal, 0.08 at Hanford and Porterville, and 0.07 inches at Bakersfield and Visalia.
Bakersfield had record daily rainfall of 0.82 inches on Fri/18 Feb. Record daily SoCal rainfall on Sat/19 Feb includes 2.74 inches at Burbank, 1.94 at Fullerton Apt, 1.80 at Ontario Apt, 1.35 at Lancaster, and 1.31 inches at Riverside Apt. Record daily SoCal rainfall on Mon/21 Feb includes 3.70 inches at Pierce College (Canoga Park), 2.90 at Sandberg, 2.50 at Fullerton Apt, 2.18 at San Diego Lindbergh Field, 2.08 at downtown Los Angeles, 1.97 at NWS/Oxnard, 1.78 at Ontario Apt, 1.76 at John Wayne Apt, 1.75 at Camarillo Apt, 1.43 at Riverside Apt, 0.91 at Palm Springs, and 0.66 inches at Paso Robles. Record daily SoCal rainfall on Tue/22 Feb includes 1.62 inches at Long Beach, 0.97 at Fullerton Apt, 0.90 at Ramona Apt, and 0.78 inches at Sandberg. The following links provide details on the third wettest season on record at downtown Los Angeles and San Diego, wettest winter on record at Las Vegas, and seasonal precip to date at selected California locations:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?sid=LOX&pil=PNS&version=1 (NWS/Oxnard)
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=PNS&sid=SGX&version=0 (NWS/San Diego)
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=RER&sid=VEF&version=0 (NWS/Las Vegas)
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/getAFDversion.php?sid=SFO&pil=CLI&version=0 (NWS/Monterey)
US records: Record daily Arizona precip on Fri/18 Feb includes 0.63 inches at Sedona, 0.62 at Seligman, 0.61 at Prescott Apt, 0.57 at Cottonwood, 0.48 at Grand Canyon Apt, and 0.21 inches at Heber RS. Other daily precip records on Fri/18 Feb include 0.64 inches at Zion National Park UT and 0.41 inches at Las Vegas NV. Record lows that date include minus 3 at Logan UT and 17 at Islip NY. Record daily Arizona precip on Sat/19 Feb includes 0.81 inches at Show Low, 0.45 inches at Window Rock, and 0.27 inches at Grand Canyon Apt. Record daily snowfall on Sun/20 Feb includes 4.6 inches at Duluth MN, 4.3 inches at Rochester MN, 4.1 inches at Green Bay WI, and 1.7 inches at Newark NJ. That date also saw record daily precip of 1.22 inches at Crossville TN.
Record daily precip on Mon/21 Feb includes 2.10 inches at Chattanooga TN, 1.80 inches at Augusta GA, and 1.28 inches at Charleston SC. That date also saw record daily snowfall of 5.5 inches at Bridgeport CT and record highs of 82 at Baton Rouge LA (tied), 80 at New Orleans LA (tied), and 79 at Mobile AL (tied). Record daily highs on Tue/22 Feb include 83 at Albany GA (tied), 82 at Alma GA and New Orleans Audobon Park, 80 at Mobile AL, 77 at Apalachicola FL, 76 at Charleston SC, and 72 at Greenville-Spartanburg SC (tied). Record daily precip on Wed/23 Feb includes 1.38 inches at Oklahoma City OK, 0.62 inches at Show Low AZ, and 0.32 inches at Grand Canyon Apt AZ. That date also saw a record high of 76 at Galveston TX (tied).
Upper level low continues to spin about 440 miles west of Big Sur with broad flow of subtropical moisture being pulled from south to north giving much of our area a very wet day. There have been several surges today of moderate to locally heavy rain crossing the Central Coast mountains and Bay Area and eastward across much of the Great Valley into the Sierra with snow levels near 6000 feet. Radar shows the cloud elements now moving from south to north and satellite showing clouds being pulled back over the water and around the upper level devil. GFS model runs of 12Z and 18Z try to cut back on precip Wed so likely will see some breaks in the clouds and only scattered showers. Look for another strong surge of precip into the Southland on Thu, spreading northward into CenCal and NorCal PM/Thu and continuing much of State on Fri. Upper system finally fills and kicks eastward on Sat with most significant precip in the Southland and lighter, spotty precip rest of State.
Past several runs of GFS model have eliminated the stronger Pacific weather system originally scheduled for Sun/Mon. The only models to hang on to that idea are the Canadian and Navy NOGAPS. UKMET and Euro models have dropped the system. The 18Z GFS model still makes a case for some showers on Sun scattered around the State but ridging really cleans things up by Mon/Presidents' Day and continues the dry look most of State Tue - Fri of next week. This drier look has really cut back on our precip expectations the rest of Feb, making it unlikely for a normal Feb precip tally in the Sierra and much of NorCal and CenCal. It likely even looks worse in the Pacific Northwest where the Cascades are mostly nude of snow cover. Must keep the faith that wetter scenarios lie ahead in late Feb/Mar. Just checked telemetry and see 12-hour precip totals of more than 2 inches at Mining Ridge and Three Peaks in the Santa Lucia Range. Over 1 inch liquid most of Bay Area today.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif (QPFs getting heavier Southland)
NorCal and CenCal 120-hour orographic QPFs to 4AM/Sun/20 Feb include 3.8 inches in the Santa Lucia Range, 2.9 Arroyo Pasajero, 1.4 Russian, 1.4 Santa Cruz Mtns, 1.3 Stanislaus, 0.9 Kern, 0.9 San Joaquin, 0.7 Feather, 0.4 Eel, 0.1 Shasta, and "Nothing for You" in the Smith basin. SoCal QPFs same period include 6.2 inches in the Santa Ynez Mountains, 5.8 Mount Wilson, 4.5 San Gabriel, 4.0 Palomar Mountain, 3.6 San Jacinto Mtns, and 3.4 inches in the San Bernardino Mountains. We expect 2.2 inches in the Feather basin next 5 days, greater than the above total since much of it is not orographic. Feather basin total is 1.1 inches the past 2 days. Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 0.1 inches the past day for a Feb total of 0.9 inches, 11 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total is 29.8 inches, 96 percent of average to date.
California 24-hour remote sensor precip to 4AM/Tue/15 Feb includes 0.80 inches at Mount Hamilton (South Bay), 0.59 at Mount Madonna (Santa Cruz Mtns), 0.45 at Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), 0.26 at Napa, 0.25 at Big Sur, 0.20 at Bucks Lake (Feather) and Greek Store (American), 0.17 at Tamarack Summit (San Joaquin), 0.15 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 0.14 at Crabtree Meadow (Kern), and 0.08 inches at Shasta Dam.
I will try to catch up on some recent precip. Some Southland/Desert precip totals for two low latitude weather systems from NWS/San Diego and NWS/Las Vegas for 72 hours to 4AM/Sun/13 Feb include 2.40 inches at Ramona Apt, 2.14 at Miramar, 2.06 at Fullerton, 2.03 at Oceanside, 1.70 at Mitchell Caverns, 1.65 at Chino Apt, 1.64 at San Diego, 1.55 at John Wayne Apt, 1.54 at Rialto, 1.48 at Ontario, 1.30 at Campo, 1.26 at Riverside Apt, 1.22 at Julian, 1.21 at Needles, 1.12 at Thermal, 1.07 at Hesperia, 0.91 at Palm Springs, 0.80 at Beaumont, 0.77 at Mountain Pass, 0.73 at Mountain Pass, 0.50 at China Lake, 0.41 at Baker, 0.33 at Barstow-Daggett, and 0.20 inches at Death Valley. I believe that there have been more desert storms this season than I have seen in my 22 years here at DWR. The desert will really bloom this spring....maybe already.
Southland precip totals for the low latitude storm of 11 - 12 Feb from NWS/Oxnard include 6.21 inches at Opids Camp, 4.28 at Mount Baldy FS, 3.43 at Rocky Peak, 3.28 at Chilao, 3.27 at Del Valle, 3.25 at Santa Fe Dam, 2.98 at Camp 9, 2.94 at Long Beach, 2.88 at Van Nuys, 2.62 at Beverly Hills, 2.30 at downtown Los Angeles, 2.28 at Old Man Mountain, 2.12 at LAX, 1.85 at Sandberg, 1.82 at Burbank, 1.42 at Palmdale, 0.75 at Oxnard, 0.67 at San Marcos Pass, 0.59 at Nordhoff Ridge, 0.44 at Santa Barbara Apt, 0.27 at Paso Robles, and 0.26 inches at Santa Maria.
NorCal and CenCal precip totals from the 11 -12 Feb low latitude system and the 13 - 15 Feb higher latitude system for 96 hours to 4AM/Tue/15 Feb include 1.19 inches at Redding, 1.06 at San Jose, 0.70 at Moffett Field, 0.69 at Ukiah, 0.68 at Alturas, 0.64 at SFO, 0.63 at Eureka, 0.59 at Monterey, 0.58 at Red Bluff, 0.51 at Arcata, 0.48 at San Francisco and South Lake Tahoe, 0.43 at Oakland, 0.40 at Stockton, 0.39 at Cedarville, 0.36 at Tahoe City, 0.34 at Mammoth Mountain, 0.28 at Fresno and Lemoore NAS, 0.27 at Oroville, 0.26 at Modesto, 0.22 at Modesto, 0.20 at Lee Vining, 0.19 at Hanford, 0.18 at Fairfield and Mariposa, 0.15 at Truckee Apt, 0.14 at Markleeville and Merced, and 0.03 inches in Sacramento.
The upper level pattern features a broad trough of low pressure across the nation and a developing Rex Block over the West Coast. Rex Block refers to a blocking high northeast Pacific and a cutoff low underneath at lower latitudes; this is a stagnant situation. A closed low over the eastern Pacific near 34N/130W anchors a stationary boundary from Central California to the Central Rockies the next several days. Jet stream and short wave energy are activating a wave on the stationary front with moderate to locally heavy rainfall moving through the Bay Area and into the northern San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. Rainfall in southern Sac Valley is on the light to moderate side, moving northeast into Sacramento by 6PM/Mon/14 Feb. An urban and small stream flood advisory has been issued for the Bay Area. Within broad subtropical flow of moisture, expect additional impulses to bring periods of precip to much of State through the weekend, with possible break on Sat.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=FLS&sid=MTR&version=0 (Urban and Small Stream Advisory)
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/satloop.php?wfo=mtr&type=ir&size=4
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index picked up 0.6 inches of precip over the weekend for a Feb total of 0.8 inches, 10 percent of the monthly average. Seasonal total has reached 29.7 inches, 97 percent of average to date. Feather basin picked up 1.0 inch of precip Sun and Sun night from a warm advection pattern. We predict an additional 3.6 inches of precip in the Feather basin next 10 days with measurable precip on each of those 10 days and 0.9 inches the most on any one day (Sun/20 Feb). Precip summary below includes NorCal precip which fell mostly on Sun/13 Feb and SoCal heavy precip which fell mostly on Fri/11 Feb.
California remote sensor 72-hour precip to 4AM/Mon/14 Feb includes 5.00 inches at Opids Camp (LA County), 3.27 at Cable Canyon (San Bernardino Cty), 2.57 at Palomar Mountain (San Diego Cty), 2.32 at Leggett (Eel), 2.11 at La Porte (Feather), 2.08 at Big Bear (San Bernardino Cty), 1.67 at Stouts Meadow (Shasta), 1.54 at Mineral (Battle Creek), 1.46 at Trinity Guard Station (Trinity), 1.40 at Ruth Lake (Mad), 1.25 at Honeydew (Mattole), 1.04 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen), 1.00 at Shasta Dam, 0.96 at Kaiser Point (San Joaquin), 0.76 at San Marcos Pass (Santa Barbara Cty), 0.75 at Blue Canyon (American) and Ventana Cone (Santa Lucia Range), 0.70 at Salt Springs (Mokelumne), 0.63 at Black Spring (Stanislaus), 0.60 at Orleans (Klamath), 0.44 at Alpine Meadows (Tahoe) and Nordhoff Ridge (Ventura Cty), 0.31 at Crabtree Meadows (Kern) and Yosemite Valley (Merced), 0.30 at Springville (Tule), and 0.29 inches at Hetch Hetchy (Tuolumne River basin).
Precip totals below include the weakening Pacific weather system transiting California today and a system catching most of Arizona and eastern portions of the Southland last night and this morning. Split flow leaves things dry in the Golden State next couple days before a low-latitude system brings subtropical moisture and possible heavy rainfall to Arizona, Southeast California Deserts, and portions of the Southwest PM/Thu/10 Feb through Sat/12 Feb. There is also a good chance of rain on Fri in the Southland east of LA. Latest GFS 18Z model brings enough westerly flow, Pacific moisture, and warm advection for a chance of rain to Northern California and Southern Oregon this Sat and Sun. A deep upper low moves eastward and brings better chance for precip to NorCal and CenCal Tue through Thu, 15 - 17 Feb, of next week. Unsettled weather continues most of State the latter part of next week. We put in 2.5 inches of liquid into Feather basin next week. Will update on Thu.
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
California 24-hour remote sensor precip totals to 4AM/Mon/7 Feb include 0.32 inches at Gasquet (Smith), 0.32 at Orick (Redwood Creek), 0.28 at Bridgeville (Van Duzen), 0.25 at Opids Camp (LA County), 0.20 at Honeydew (Mattole), 0.19 at Devore Water Co. (San Bernardino County), 0.16 at Miranda (Eel) and Palomar Mountain, 0.14 at Alpine Meadows (Tahoe), 0.12 at Hillcrest (Shasta), 0.10 at Bloods Creek (Stanislaus), 0.10 at Bucks Creek (Feather), and 0.10 inches at Ruth Lake (Mad). Northern Sierra 8-Station Precip Index added 0.1 inch the past 24 hours, the first precip in Feb. Seasonal total is now 29.0 inches, 101 percent of average to date. Total last year this date was 29.2 inches, 102 percent of average to date. The Feb total last year was 14.5 inches, 181 percent of the monthly average.
North Coast 24-hour precip totals to 4AM/Mon/7 Feb include 0.55 inches at Crescent City, 0.30 inches at Eureka, and 0.20 inches at Arcata. Sac Valley and Sierra 24-hour totals to 10AM/Mon/7 Feb include 0.27 inches at Burney and Mineral, 0.22 at Manzanita Lake, 0.12 at Chester, 0.08 at Paradise, 0.05 at Stockton, and 0.02 inches at Sacramento. Some California 24-hour coop/city precip totals to 4PM/Mon/7 Feb include 0.48 inches at Fallbrook, 0.26 at Blue Canyon, 0.25 at Santa Cruz, 0.24 at Big Sur Station, 0.21 at Monterey, 0.20 at Imperial Beach, 0.18 at Idyllwild, 0.17 at Salinas and San Francisco, 0.16 at Carmel Valley and Oakland Apt, 0.14 at Sea World San Diego, 0.11 at Fremont, and 0.10 inches at Julian.
This day in weather history: In 1861 the temp at Gouverneur NY bottomed out at 40 degrees below zero, a drop of 70 degrees in one day. Two days later the mercury hit 55 degrees above zero. In 1933 a 112-foot wave was survived by the USS Ramapo in the Pacific Ocean. It is thought to be the highest wave ever observed and survived. In 1978 the worst winter storm of record struck coastal New England. The storm produced 27.5 inches of snow at Boston, and nearly 50 inches in northeast Rhode Island. The 14-foot tide at Portland ME was probably the highest of the century. Winds gusted to 79 mph at Boston, and reached 92 mph at Chatham MA. A hurricane-size surf caused 75 deaths and 500 million dollars damage. In 1989 twenty-five cities in the western US reported record lows. Record Feb monthly lows included minus 29 at Milford UT, minus 16 at Reno NV, 16 at Las Vegas NV, and 26 at Bakersfield CA. The Boca CA low of minus 43 was a state record for the month of Feb.
US records: California record highs on Wed/2 Feb include 72 at Eureka and 69 at Oakland. Oregon record highs on Wed/2 Feb include 67 at Pendleton, 65 at Bend, 62 at Heppner, 59 at Mitchell, 53 at Elgin (tied), and 47 at Meacham. Washington record highs on Wed/2 Feb include 63 at Walla Walla (tied) and Whitman Mission (tied). Oregon record highs on Thu/3 Feb include 67 at Bend (tied), 65 at Pendleton (tied), 64 at Mitchell, 61 at Redmond, 60 at Condon and Monument, 57 at Moro, 56 at Madras, and 52 at Meacham. Other record highs on Thu/3 Feb include 78 at Redding CA, 65 at Medford OR, 61 at Walla Walla WA (tied), 58 at Estherville IA and Sioux Falls SD, 57 at Mobridge SD (tied), 56 at Bismarck ND, 55 at Klamath Falls OR (tied), 51 at Watertown SD, 48 at Saint Cloud MN, and 44 at Duluth MN (tied).
Record highs on Fri/4 Feb include 68 at Vermillion SD, 66 at Norfolk NE, 64 at Mitchell SD, 61 at Des Moines IA and Sioux Falls SD, 60 at Huron SD, 53 at Mason City IA, 52 at Wisconsin Rapids, 51 at Eau Claire WI, Marshfield WI, and Minneapolis MN Apt, 50 at Traverse City MI, 49 at Wausau WI, and 48 at Saint Cloud MN (tied). Record highs on Sat/5 Feb include 61 at Kearney NE (tied) and Sioux City SD, 55 at Traverse City MI, 51 at Portland ME, 50 at Gaylord MI, Green Bay WI, Houghton Lake MI, Marquette MI, Marshfield WI, Rhinelander WI, and Wisconsin Rapids (tied), 49 at International Falls MN, and 48 at Alpena MI. El Paso TX also had record daily rainfall of 0.97 inches on Sat/5 Feb. Record highs on Sun/6 Feb include 62 at Jackson KY (tied), 61 at Morgantown WV, 57 at Newark NJ (tied) and Zanesville OH, 46 at Alpena MI, 45 at Portland ME, 44 at Gaylord MI (tied) and Sault Ste Marie MI, and 43 at Wausau WI (tied).
Additional daily records on Sun/6 Feb include 4.2 inches of snow at Hastings NE and 0.84 inches of precip at Mason City IA.
Strong upper ridge Northern California/Pacific Northwest weakens Thu/Fri with onshore flow and cooling Fri through the weekend. Expect cold front to sag southward through Pac Northwest Fri and into NorCal Sat/Sun. Frontal system on Fri and additional short wave energy on Sun should bring periods of rain or showers to the Pac Northwest Fri through Sun with decreasing showers/clouds after the weekend. As offshore flow dies and turns onshore, look for cooling trend most of California Fri into the weekend with chance of showers on Sun in NorCal, especially mountain areas. Latest GFS 18Z model not as wet as 12Z version (apparent one-trick pony) so no significant precip in sight for CA through next week. Lots of 70s today NorCal but high of 71 Santa Rosa down from 78 Tue, warmest temp in US. High pressure over UT combined with NE winds aloft will cause gusty Santa Ana winds Southland through Thu. Patchy dense night/AM fog Central Valley Thu/Fri.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=LOX&version=0
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=SGX&version=0
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
Northern Sierra 8-Station precip index preliminary Jan total is 8.3 inches, 92 percent of the monthly average. This is far more than Jan 2004 with 5.7 inches. Season total is 28.9 inches, 106 percent of average to date. With dry weather, the index loses about 1 percent per day this time of year. Feb 2004 was wet with 14.5 inches, 181 percent of average. Then it got warm and dry. Snowpack water content looked good past couple days as snow surveys got under way. Measurements at 4 locations southwest of Lake Tahoe on Tue ranged from 142 to 163 percent of average. On Tue/1 Feb, the compacted snow measured at the survey site at Mount Rose-Ski Tahoe ski resort was about 9 feet deep and 128 percent of normal for the date. The Truckee River basin snowpack was 149 percent of average. Farther south, the news is even better with the Carson River snowpack at 164 percent of average and the Walker River basin at 182 percent. Southern Sierra water content is about 190 percent of avg.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/DLYSWEQ.html
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/PLOT_SWC
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/PLOT_ESI
Updated NWS/CPC outlook for Feb has drier look for CA with mean upper trough over the West and not much influence from weak El Nino episode:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
(Feb outlook for temps/precip)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html
(Discussion for Feb outlook)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off_index.html
(Feb/Mar/Apr outlook)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html
(Discussion for Feb/Mar/Apr outlook)Everything you wanted to know about Ground Hog's Day and more, courtesy of Jan Null:
27 October 2009
The link below was reported broken:
http://ourworld.cs.com/DonaldRHalley/ghdsongs.htm
Please look for more about Groundhog Day Songs at:
http://www.educationworld.com/a_lesson/lesson/lesson330b.shtml
Please note another link recommended by Amy Martin for educational Groundhog Day resources:
http://www.gourmetgiftbaskets.com/Groundhog-Day.aspThis day in weather history: In 1916 the dome of a cathedral in Seattle was crushed under the weight of a 3-day wet snow of 32.5 inches. In 1951 the brutal morning low of minus 35 at Greensburg IN would remain the Hoosier State's coldest reading until 1994. In 1952 the only tropical storm of record to hit the US in Feb moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida. It produced 60 mph winds and 2 to 4 inches of rain. In 1956 a record snowstorm in New Mexico and West Texas began on Ground Hog's Day and produced 15 inches of snow at Roswell NM and up to 33 inches in the Texas Panhandle. In 1996 an Arctic outbreak that lasted from late Jan through early Feb produced nearly 400 record lows, 15 all-time record lows, and over 50 monthly record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record lows with minus 60 at Tower MN. In 1998 a powerful Pacific storm brought 90 mph winds to Central California and heavy snows to the Sierra.
Expect upper ridge to strengthen over Northern California and upper low to deepen over Baja next several days. With surface high pressure building over the Great Basin, look for a prolonged offshore wind event for Southern California through at least Thu. Wind advisories currently in effect may have to be upgraded as this Santa Ana wind event develops late tonight and Wed. High wind watches have been issued for much of the Southland Wed and Thu with damaging wind gusts over 65 mph possible. As the last wind advisories in Northern Californian expire by 6PM/Tue, we have seen offshore flow bring the warmest temps of the year to much of NorCal and CenCal with record highs of 78 at Santa Rosa and 73 at Richmond and San Francisco. Some other warm afternoon high temps include 76 at Carmel Valley and Monterey, 75 at Salinas, Ukiah, and Vallejo, 74 at Napa and Redwood City, 72 at Redding and Vacaville, and 71 in downtown Sacramento. Most models show deepening upper trough over the West this weekend with cooler temps CA but West Coast precip pretty much confined to the Pacific Northwest Thu - Sun.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=LOX&version=0
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/versprod.php?pil=NPW&sid=SGX&version=0
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/weather/data/gifs/ir/goes_west/current.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
US records: Midland TX had a record snowfall of 1.6 inches on Tue/1 Feb. Hastings NE set a new Jan monthly snowfall record with 15.3 inches; the old record was 14.6 inches in 2004. The four highest snowfall totals in Jan at Hastings occurred during the new century. In fact, the first 5 years of this century were in the top ten for the most snow in Jan. The monthly precip total for Jan in Lansing MI of 4.39 inches broke the old record of 4.35 inches in 1880 (pretty old record).
This day in weather history: In 1951 the greatest ice storm of record in the US produced glaze up to 4 inches thick from Texas to Pennsylvania causing 25 deaths, 500 serious injuries, and 100 million dollars damage. Tennessee was hardest hit by the storm with communities and utilities interrupted for a week to 10 days. In 1955 a devastating tornado cut an 8-mile path across Tunica County MS with 17 people killed in a plantation school at Commerce Landing MS. In 1985 a winter storm produced up to 11 inches of sleet and ice in Lauderdale County AL. In one of the worst ice storms of record in the State, all streets in Florence AL were closed for the first time in the city's history. Also in 1985, the low temp of minus 28 at Madison WI easily shattered the record low of minus 22 and tied the all time low for Madison. In 1987 a storm in the Pacific Northwest produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Cape Blanco OR and up to 6 inches of rain in the northern coastal mountains.
